For context: Tesla is guiding for $10+B a year capex spending for the next 3 years.
Nevada factory took $6.2B and Tesla plans to spend additional $3.6B
Toyota is still under-investing in EV. $1.3B is nothing.
Toyota has been good to the area.
Off topic, but is there a popular tech meetup in the state? Moved back a year and some change ago and would love to get more involved.
- PHP user group (https://www.meetup.com/kentucky-php-user-group/events/298973...)
- Bluegrass Developers Guild (https://www.meetup.com/the-bluegrass-developers-guild/events...)
Also, being an early employee at a startup, I've been attending the rare Startup Lexington event I can make it to.
Feel free to contact my email (in profile) if you want to connect
I also lurk on these slacks: bluegrass-dev.slack (same folks as the meetup I assume), Louisville Tech louisville.slack, and startuplexington.slack
Hope we keep this ball rolling a bit longer on meetups and gatherings both in person and online.
- https://lextalk.tech/ - should be another one in April or may
- https://www.meetup.com/The-Bluegrass-Developers-Guild on Meetup - lots of good events here
- https://www.bluegrassdevs.org/ - join our slack
I really suggest coffee and code. It is super chill and a great way to meet folks around the area: https://meetu.ps/e/MN0XK/1RyZP/i
We are always looking for folks to help out.
I know people around these parts think that Tesla has uncovered some magical factory building ability, but can you even consider the fact that maybe Toyota knows what they are doing?
>Toyota is still under-investing in EV. $1.3B is nothing.
This is one factory.
https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/wheels-falling...
https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyotas-fix-bz4x-disconnecti...
That doesn't get the headlines and attenion that a icon enlargement software update on Tesla does on HN.
It's really easy to cherry pick problems when someone makes millions of cars every year.
Toyta sold ten million cars that year so scale wise that doesn't even qualify as a rounding error. The Teslas suspension problems that caused some wheels to fly off effected tens of thousands.
Compare that to the tens of thousands of ACTUAL INCIDENTS identified by Reuters through Tesla internal documents and Tesla's refusal to even cover the repairs, let alone proactively recall all potentially affected vehicles. Much of what was covered by Reuter's occurred AFTER China forced a recall for the exact same issues.
https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-is-conducting-a-safety-r...
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-mu...
Wheels are actually designed to fall off in an accident.
Hybrids may turn out to be a more popular option.
That is a matter of opinion. As a brand new technology, I think a market share approaching 10% is incredible. Only fans thought this was possible even 5 years ago.
Even if you care more about build quality and comfort, there are cars from VW, Audi, Hyundai, Mercedes, etc, that are better than, say, the Toyota bZ4X while having better range and charging. Toyota simply doesn't make the best pure electric cars.
Toyota sold 30k in 2023, the lowest number ever.
Tesla sold 400k of Model Y and 210k of Model 3 and 31k of Model X in 2024.
So Model Y outsold Prius by 13x in US in 2023.
---
https://carfigures.com/us-market-brand/toyota/prius-family
https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/29/tesla-model-ys-huge-gro...
4. Toyota RAV4 (434,943 units sold)
5. Tesla Model Y (385,900 units sold, estimated)
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...
This source says the Model Y sold 403,897 (still behind the RAV4) https://www.visualcapitalist.com/best-selling-vehicles-in-am...
This source says Model Y sales were 394,497: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/06/top-10-best-selling-cars-in-...
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/12/07/tesla-model-y-is-2-us-best...
My point stands, Model Y sales are matching RAV4 sales, for all practical purposes. And it happened in the space of a couple years. Toyota sells a lot of cars, but they're not the undisputed king of the hill.
Also, not all RAV4s are hybrids. Model Y definitely outsold RAV4 hybrids. Though hybrids aren't any kind of EV (unless they are plug-in), so that's moot.
And yes, HEV's are EV's the same way BEV's are.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1181404/alternative-sale...
They don't need to catch up to anything.
This is probably true, hybrids may win in the US market in the short term until they are outlawed?
article says plugin hybrid, not just hybrid, which is kinda loophole.
> new cars sold in 2035 and beyond are zero-emission vehicles which includes battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles.
it just says: zero emission, and hybrids are obviously not
https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/documents/cars-and-light-tr...
In the US? When hell freezes over. In the Nederlands? Probably in 5-6 years.
The RAV4 is the top selling "SUV" in America(1) and it looks like close to 50% of those are the hybrid model.
1. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...
In 2022 it was 48%: https://evstatistics.com/2022/07/48-of-1h-2022-toyota-rav4-s...
If Toyota were shipping the same battery capacity as Tesla they could make every car they sell globally a hybrid or plug-in hybrid and they are at about 30% of that.
Their history of engineering and execution.
What makes you think think they can't? EV proponents like to argue that the simplicity is what makes EVs so great, but at the same time making arguments like "no one can catch up".
Believe it or not, it's not a certainty that EVs are going to be the solution, rather than just an improvement on our way to something else.
To catch up from behind, you need to do more than your competition.
Toyota's battery complex in North Carolina is a greater spend than the entire annual budget from Tesla and will have about the same output as Tesla's "gigafactory". The $1.3 billion in Kentucky is in addition to that.. it's a mistake to think they're not investing heavily.
https://www.just-auto.com/news/toyota-to-double-investment-i...
Tesla would've locked in cheaper lithium supply than toyota.
Here's one article from 2018 where they secured 100% of the sales rights to an Argentinian lithium mine that is equivalent to all of the lithium Tesla used worldwide in 2021.
https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/about/project/04.html
It's actually inconceivable to me how Musk & Tesla were able to launch a new auto manufacturer, especially with a novel drivetrain. The amount of things that had to go right, the number of decisions they had to make, the number of supplier agreements and sales agreements are a massive, monumental lift. The world is a better place for Tesla existing and for proving the market for electric cars.
However...
People massively underestimate the amount of money the big OEMs can throw at these problems. Toyota Group has an entirely separate mining and materials company with as much annual revenue as Tesla's entire org: https://www.toyota-tsusho.com/english/ir/library/integrated-...
Tesla has ~$100 billion in assets, Toyota has >5x that. I hope Musk settles down with his silly time-wasting edgelord nonsense on Twitter and focuses on Tesla and SpaceX - with more of a steady hand and a singular focus on EVs, I think they could be the largest manufacturer in the world but they're not there yet and a slightly cheaper lithium supply isn't the unique advantage that's going to get them there.
And it's a bet that's working well so far: https://fortune.com/asia/2023/12/28/toyota-hybrid-cars-sales...
when i was buying hybrid volvo a few years ago and talked to dealership boss, i was told that volvo got surprised by demand and they simply don't have enough battery packs in order build more.
and things like battery pack for car, it's not something that you can just ramp up capacity from today to tomorrow.
It starts at €70k. In what world is this not expensive? Maybe in Bay Area Fang wages.
Does it? Ferraris, Zondas and Koenigseggs also have big waiting lists.
Expensive things to the well off sell easier than average products to the ever shrinking middle class.
Wait lists for a single model? I mean, maybe Hyundai just aren't making a lot of EV9s.
IMO hybrids could have a lot of life as a stopgap, but full EVs are pretty clearly where things are going. We've got chargers being installed (Tesla 4th Gen) that can charge at 600kW. Cars can't handle that yet, but the current 800V platforms are getting closer. Once you can get the better part of a full charge in less than 10 minutes, it's not really less convenient than stopping for gas on a trip. And as more people get EVs (and even PHEVs), more buildings will be equipped with charging. Even a regular 120V outlet is fine for most people for day to day overnight charging - especially if they can get a quick top-up to near full at a supercharger when needed.
Summary: hybrids are great for a lot of people right now and in the near future. In the medium to far future, EVs are going to be superior in, I think, all relevant metrics^. (Even cost, as batteries will get cheaper, while the cost of added hybrid components will stay roughly flat.)
^Well, except weight and sound, specifically thinking of sports cars. I'd be a lot more excited about the new electrified Porsche 718 (Cayman/Boxster) platform if it were hybrid instead of full electric, for those reasons. Not super relevant for commuter cars though.
volvo hybrids force engine operation in case gas wasn't refilled/used for too long.
also, this is volvo. no idea how other hybrids tackle this issue
Plugin hybrids are the future.
Ended up leasing a BMW i5 because of the complete waste of time and hassle.
I'm glad it wasn't my car but, based on the experience, I wouldn't go near that joke of a company ever again. Lost a repeat customer too.
Takeaway: their staff listen more to their robot portal software than they do to rational customer experience.
And I know I'm p'ing in the wind ... but Tesla (in my experience) get way too much credit. I've had better experiences with conventional dealerships (and that's saying something considering how bad they are).
N=1
I don't know how.
I've got dealing with conventional car dealers down to an art form, and it still isn't even remotely comparable.
To get a Tesla you order it online and then go in for an appointment to pick it up. Hand them the payment, they already have all the paperwork ready for signatures, they give you the key cards and offer to help you install the app. You accept delivery and drive home. If you want, you can easily be in and out in 15 minutes or less. And the delivery guy doesn't try to sell me anything. No extended warranty, nothing.
What I got was 5 months of hot potato juggling, inept delivery advisors (which I later discovered to be because they had no power and rigidly stuck to their what their portal says), confusion and countless hours spent handholding a very simple order. Only for it to collapse at the end because pricing changed (BECAUSE of delays when Tesla messed up the order).
Anyway ... joke company, and I'll not go near them again.
So I bought another Tesla. At this time the Toyota experience has left such a sour taste that I will probably not ever consider one of their products in the future. Other manufacturers have really stepped up their game anyway, so it's not like Toyota makes the only reliable car you can buy.
All it needs is more battery capacity, which apparently they are indeed investing in.
They have a whole line of them "coming any day now".
They have a lot of people who love the Toyota/Lexus brand.
Not a Tesla fanboy (I'm turning mine in for a Rivian), but the OP wasn't saying this, not sure how you got that conclusion. They are saying for a car company they are (1) way behind and (2) any investments they are making won't reach fruition for years, nor likely make a dent in the industry.
Outside of MB and the Chinese EVs, the design of Tesla motors is far superior. Their build quality and finishing is awful however - something the traditional players do really well.
The OP drew a direct comparison from what Tesla spent on a plant, to what Toyota is spending on a factory. How can you draw a different conclusion? What makes Tesla "right" and Toyota "wrong"?
>They are saying for a car company they are (1) way behind and (2) any investments they are making won't reach fruition for years, nor likely make a dent in the industry.
Way behind what? The RAV4 sold more units than the Model Y last year, and that's just one model. Again, people have this weird way of extrapolating what Tesla is doing in the EV market (dominating) to the overall car market (rounding error).
https://insideevs.com/news/706169/tesla-model-y-best-selling...
Car and Driver also says the Rav4 outside the Model Y, fwiw.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g43553191/bestselling-cars...
Further, that top spot is not for a specific Ford truck, but for all F-series trucks put together. That's an apples to oranges comparison.
Telsa had to deploy their capital very efficiently in a capital intensive industry. Say their bet on the Shanghai factory, despite obvious IP leak risks and spawning deadly competitors like BYD, was their only choice to reach scale at a low cost.
Surely that's an easier task than deploying a similar amount of capital in an industry that isn't capital heavy.
BYD was founded in 1995 and its automotive subsidiary 2003 (via aquisition)
Yes, their bus and ICE lines long predated, and they had hybrids built out of forced technology transfers from Toyota. But their EV lines that are so popular didn’t start until after Tesla acquired their corporate license and rights to build their gigafactory. If you’ve done business in China you know forced technology transfers and training of competitive local workforces is contingent on those stages. The factory itself and its parts supply chain would also have required transfer of technical knowledge, skill, and local supplier ability without exclusivity.
It’s not a knock on Chinese people to say the Chinese government is intertwined in Chinese industry (it is communist after all and ultimately the means of production is a public trust), or that there is no “fairness” by western standards in Chinese industry and governmental influence. But it’s also disingenuous to believe BYD pivoted to a full on global Tesla competitor in 4 years from being a low end hybrid and bus manufacturer based purely on their tenacity and innovation, neither of which is BYD known for in its history (having been propped up as a money loser for decades by the government and facing a lot of intellectual property lawsuits from Toyota, Mercedes, Renault, and others throughout its history). It’s too implausible to take seriously and there’s no reason to be credulous.
It’s not like BYD appeared out of thin air a few months after Tesla opened shop.
Speaking as a 2004 Prius daily driver, the Toyota approach works. And I guarantee I'm a hell of a lot more "environmentally friendly" than anyone who commissioned literal tons of metal to be dug out of the earth to make their "green" new Tesla.
E.g., the first Prius was released in 1997:
https://www.tesla.com/impact (see page 22)
And that's not even mentioning that in 20 years we won't be mining materials out of the ground anymore, will just be recycling existing battery materials
In fact, reading through the lines of Tesla's own fluff piece, in places like China the Prius is net-environmentally positive even year by year as compared to the Model 3. China has the most emissions of any country, so that's a pretty big caveat to simply ignore. But again, fluff piece by the fluff company.
Sure, but that isn't the comparison here. Buying a new EV and then holding on to it for 20 years will be even more environmentally friendly.
1. Conflict of interest. Is there any alternative report?
2. 2 years is vague, do we have it in kms?
3. Which car is it against? How does it compare with Prius 2024?
If the electricity is from coal, the break-even is after 5 years; even then, the lifetime emission of the EV is not even 10% less than that of the conventional gas car.
If the electricity is from hydro and other 100% non-fossil fuel renewables, than the break-even is even shorter, under a year, and over the lifetime the emissions are about 70%~80% less overall (and the longer the car is driven compared to a conventional gas car, more than 13 years, the greater the reduction in lifetime emissions)
All data from this source:
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ELECTRIC-VEHICLES/EMISSIONS...
(Full webpage, for context: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/when-d...)
Then why did they go all in on hydrogen cars?
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/analysis-it-is-now...
The average BEV is lasting just as long as any other car on the road and the used market is not filled with "broken EVs requiring expensive maintenance". The opposite seems to statistically be the case: the used market for EVs is "barren" because the cars don't need expensive maintenance and often stay with their first owners for longer and when they do move to new owners don't often go through the traditional used market because they don't need as much maintenance.
You've been lead to believe some interesting misinformation. Toyota themselves have been a source of some of that misinformation, which is further unhelpful.
- the used car industry is just barren post-pandemic. Prices are up and inventory is super low [1]
- EVs are generally not that old! Why put a BEV up as a used car when it's just a few years old? The average age of a used car is 6.1 years (according to CBC in Sep-2023) [2]. Further, that 'used car' age is up from 4 years, which further indicates the first point that the used car market is very short on supply. Most of Tesla's sales have been in just the last 4 years [3], Tesla represents a lot of BEV car sales in the US (going from memory, it was about 75% and is down to around 55%). In such a short amount of time, most BEVs are essentially still brand new. Thus, BEVs not being in the 'used' market is somewhat expected since they are half the age of the average used car, most of them are under 4 years old.
Thus, their lack of presence in the used car market could easily be more a function of their age (relatively brand new) compared to: "don't often go through the traditional used market because they don't need as much maintenance."
[1] https://www.cbtnews.com/the-state-of-used-car-prices-why-are...
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/26/3-things-to-consider-when-bu...
[3] https://cleantechnica.com/2023/04/22/tesla-just-passed-4-mil...
The early EVs have passed their 10 year marks. Some are closer to 15 years. There's a very long tail of BEVs already on the road. The only models that statistically have shown "battery degradation" enough to remark on have been the early model years of the Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf before both companies invested in active thermal management of their batteries. So far "to remark on" was "noticeable compared to factory spec", but most of those batteries remained in first use (as car batteries). I've heard of Nissan Leaf battery replacements as a mini-industry, but not due to battery degradation, due to massive jumps in density upgrading the early Leafs to larger range than their original spec. There doesn't seem to be much of a market yet for Tesla battery replacements and most of the numbers thrown around are speculation and/or misinformation.
Another thing to consider, the picture is changing quite a bit somewhat recently. The supply crunch is fading, used car prices are coming down [1], and the effects of higher interest rates is taking hold. Would you say those recent trends are consistent with your hypothesis?
When my early-2000’s Prius battery died Toyota only offered a full swap out for $insane. However there were 4 different shops within cheap/free towing distance that would swap out individual failed battery cells for around 1k with a multi-year warranty. It is my understanding that most EV batteries are in the same boat. So, like many stories, I would not count this post against all EVs, just against stupid Teslas.
At best they're 0.5% of the total number of vehicles in use.
Teslas haven't even existed as a car producing company for as long as most cars last, Toyotas in particular. Model 3's certainly not.
> The used market for EVs is "barren"
I just pulled up hundreds in a 10 mile radius of me on craigslist. Probably most needing $20,000 battery services.
> You've been lead to believe some interesting misinformation
No, you.
Do you really think this $1.3B is Toyota's entire capex in EV?