Sir, this is Hacker News. Replying with snarky arithmetic is pretty much the what passes for a bon mot around here. If you don't enjoy that, you will probably (>65% chance) find HN a stressful forum.

OTOH, if you assume we're not on average dumb or trying to get a rise out of you, you'll have a good time.

If I wanted to be really snarky, I would point out that words like "probably" actually have agreed upon numerical values (give or take), and 65% would often be described as "about as likely as not". [^1] Although it's close to the "likely" range, I will grant you. :P

[^1]: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/ar4-uncertai...