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Comment by bugbuddy | Hacker News Reader

This is the forbidden maths that EV manufacturers are scared of. I will risk my life to write it here. Let’s assume a generous 4.17 miles per kWh[1] EV efficiency and a 57 mpg [2] hybrid efficiency for a comparable nice Prius 2023. 57mpg/4.17mpkwh = 13.67 kWhpg. At the current average gas price of 3.15$/g [3], you need electricity rate below this price to beat hybrid: x < 3.15 $pg / 13.67 kWhpg

x < $0.23 per kWh.

Good luck beating hybrid with Super charger rates. With charging at home, your mileage will vary. In Southern California, where electricity rate at the top usage tier is closer to $0.50 per kWh including transmission, you are better off buying almost anything else but an EV.

Now, I will have to go into hiding to protect my life.

[1] https://insideevs.com/news/597460/tesla-efficiency-depends-o...

[2] https://www.caranddriver.com/toyota/prius-2023#

[3] https://web.archive.org/web/20240205144433/https://gasprices...

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According to the prices from the chamber of commerce [1] that means everywhere but california, new england & new york it's cheaper for electric as long as your charging at home (which you should be doing as much as you can anyways for convenience/battery health)

Additional Notes

- diagram maxes at $0.15, so some of those states may be lower than the $0.23 cut off

- you're taking national average gas prices and comparing to highest price of electricity, but so-cal also tends to have higher gas prices in comparison so I imagine the math ends up working more often than first glance may indicate.

- Your also ignoring the convenience/time saving of charging electric, I've maybe spent an hour waiting on my car to charge in the last year, but I would have been stopping at those points for meals anyways so there was very little "waiting" on my part whereas with gas I had 10/15 minutes a week of time going out of my way to fill up with gas. Just pull in at home plug in and I'm topped up next time I go someone was actually my #1 reason for going electric.

[1] https://www.globalenergyinstitute.org/2022-average-us-electr...

While I know anecdote isn't data my cost last year in Western WA for charging my car was ~$300, it would have been closer to $2000-2200 for gas.

And in big parts of California a solar roof would solve the price per mile problem.

Look up NEM 3.0 and AB 205 and let me know afterwards how you feel about solar in California.

If I remember the bitching properly, you need on-site storage now as well, right? Since they gimped feed-in?

Your calculations are interesting and indeed makes you wonder why EVs are selling in USA.

I can tell you that the numbers here in Europe are dramatically different. And in particular Sweden with comparatively cheap electricity.

1 liter gas = 1.9 Euro means around $6.7/g

1kWh electricity is on average maybe $0.1 to $0.13 but fluctuates a lot between summer and winter. With solar panels you become self sufficient.

FWIW the reason I stayed away from a Hybrid is the extra burden of maintenance and care. You get two different systems that can have troubles in their own way. In particular the gasoline part is much more sensitive and complex I'd say.

He is talking about supercharger rates, so let's compare apples to apples - Ionity 0,7EUR/kWh, Enel 0,8EUR/kWh. It is actually worse than in USA.

Most people buying an EV don't buy because of efficiency. One is ideological (I don't want pay the gas tax), another is performance (EVs have full torque at 0 rpm).

Then there's Tesla's (successful) war against dealerships. Some people simply don't want to ever talk to a dealer ever again.

Honestly, I'd prefer more mass transit and less cars but I don't think that's going to be solved in the US any time soon.

Agreed charging network evolution is required for people who don't have capability to charge at home or work fully. Right now EVs are great if you own a home + solar which means you don't pay for fuel at all, and fine even without solar if you have decent electricity rates.

Please tell all the EV YouTubers to stop being so smug about their fuel savings. Their collective delusion could fuel the Death Star (6.25 * 10^28 WH) [1].

[1] https://www.rakuten.com/blog/how-many-batteries-star-wars/

In support of your point, I would add that here in the US, electricity rates don’t matter to high-density renters — EVs are only relevant to those who rent or own low-density housing.

My apartment complex, built in 2020 on a commercial power grid in a region with many EVs on the road, has 600 units, 10 reserved chargers, and a waitlist of 50. This is an unusually high number of chargers, relative to the single one my previous medium-density housing had. None of an hundred apartment listings has a charger when I search.

High density EVs are inconceivable to cope with given the American power grid and parking zoning laws as they are implemented today, and until changes made by force of law and compulsory upgrades occur, EVs will remain inaccessible to 90% of the US population.

Comparing worst case kWh pricing with highest mpg and average gas prices seems a bit unfair, no? If you’re going to compare California power prices, why not compare to average California gas prices which are more like $4.50/gal?

Where I live it is a) very sunny almost all year round and b) very common to have PVs on your roof. I currently have 5KWH installed on my roof, I have a Nissan Leaf which I charge every day whilst I am working for home and I've paid 70euros total for electricity in the last 2 months, whilst running the underfloor heating constantly.

Assuming you're going to use your car over a period of years, buying any vehicle is also a bet on the energy markets. For a three year lease, that's probably a pretty safe bet, but for people who're looking to buy a car outright and drive it for 10 or so years it's a bit riskier.

That being said, I think hybrids are still the idea car for most people today.

Even for gas vehicles, new-car buyers famously under-value efficiency (mpg) at a pure economic level. (This is part of the justification for using manufacturer regulation to induce higher car efficiency rather than gas taxes.) So why would we think the efficiency of electric cars factors much into consumer's decision to buy them vs gas cars?

Oil is generally not so cheap in countries that don't have their own oil production. Oil (like natural gas) is also a strategic risk. You can't change geology (unless you invade a place with oil). Electricity on the other hand is something most countries can do something about, it can be self produced.

> Electricity on the other hand

... is heavily taxed in the same countries.

It is slightly unfair to compare a car built with a laser focus on fuel-efficiency with one built to just be a regular sedan.

You hardly have to stretch to tip the numbers back towards EVs (a ~35mpg sedan and $4/gal fuel prices).

For efficiency and arguably aesthetic, a $28,000 Prius 2023 is a much better choice than a $39,000 Model 3. The amount of time it takes to break even on any fuel saving is probably longer than the life of the vehicle. To get to about half the range of the Prius, you can also dole out an extra $8,000 on the long range version.

A base Prius is not nearly as well equipped as any Model 3. That's if you could even get a dealer to sell you a barebone base model at MSRP. It's really not worth comparing unless you at least option up the Prius.

I beg to differ because the fit and finish on a base model Prius is head and shoulders better than the base Model 3. The much greater reliability cannot be overstated. After 200,000 miles a well maintained Prius has no worries about $20,000 replacement battery cost like a similarly driven Model 3.

A base model Prius has a pretty econobox interior and finish on a modern Model 3 is fine. People buy cars based on features.

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