That's more than the GDP of Argentine in a change that has happened in less than two months. It's crazy how we see such speculation as a normal process and I wonder if that's really a good thing.
It's not a perfect analogy (what analogy is?) but it is the kind of thing that should make you go "hmm".
What makes more sense is to compare the company revenues or profits against a country GDP.
When a farmer produces wheat the value created is equal to the value of the wheat. When a barber cuts somebodies hair the value created is again more or less equal to the price charged. A barber shop doesn't make anything that accumulates in value. This is true for most the economy. It trades at about 1x revenue.
Tech is different. Write software once, sell it many times. Design a chip once, sell millions of copies. Tech companies are the outliers. The rest of the world doesn't work like this.
Also tech is not that special. You could say the same about a factory, which you build once and it churns out cars, or a mine which churns out minerals. And to the extent this is not true, for example factories needing upgrades and labour, the same is true of tech. Software gets old, needs support, and the labour of well paid technologists.
I.e. if everyone just bought stuff back and forth from each other constantly (assuming no taxes on the transactions) the GDP would shoot up.
Edit: I.e. how does "it" know if people just bought a ton of used cars, or if people were simply selling them back and forth to each other constantly?
(and if sales between private persons wouldn't register, imagine dealers being in between every transaction)
Instead of thinking in terms of speculation think in terms of money flows. A lot of money flowing into a handful of stocks results in an explosive move up. There is plenty of speculation as well, of course, but that isn't why AI stocks are up.
When will NVDA and SMCI go down? When all the big funds become sellers. But what else can they buy? INTC and AMD don't have competitive chips or software.
If you have real data, reference that instead. It'd actually be useful.
I'd be surprised to learn anyone has a large Nvidia short position. It's not absurd since it speculates on when the AI bubble will pop. I suppose that's really up to the fed.
It's really crazy how things are moving since the end of lockdowns, more or less everybody agrees the economy is in a bad spot, layoffs, inflation, recession risks, fertility issues, climate change issues, energy issues, wars, people can't afford housing, the end of "cheap" money, &c. Meanwhile my stocks pumped 50% over 6 months for seemingly no reasons, more than half of my gains happened in the last year
idk what's cooking but I'm starting to smell smoke