I would assume these are entirely net new use cases. I also don’t know why this wouldn’t be developed in localized cloud regions. Aws, for instance, running in India is locally compliant with regulations. It’s cheaper for aws to comply with Indian regulations than it is for a random company, or worse a government, to build aws from whole cloth in India (nothing here is specific to India, just used as an example).

Before anyone steps in in favor of on prem vs aws, I’ve worked at cloud providers, building megacorp on prem, and migrating said on prem to the cloud, and building native cloud companies. Execution risks and the enormous high energy state of building full service on prem solutions make it much more reasonable to use cloud providers for stuff like this, and the economics of capital investment, the accounting of things, etc, makes it unreasonable for governments to NOT use cloud providers.

That’s only if there is an overlap between the customers who want to use cloud and the ones who want to run things on premise.

I would assume that those who want to run things on prem aren’t currently cloud customers for other services. And those who are already heavily invested in a cloud provider will look to the same provider for AI compute.