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Comment by gardnr | Hacker News Reader

What time series data do you have that you'd like to run through it?

Stock market data. But maybe the advantage disappears if other traders have the same model. Perhaps that's why they haven't released it.

I've tried using TimeGPT to predict the SPDR future price and it couldn't make any useful predictions

Maybe this one is better

I still think humans have better pattern recognition in the stock market than neural nets...at least for now

I highly doubt a human can beat the market consistently looking at the timeseries of some ticker alone.

you dont need to beat the market. you just need to beat pure chance to make money

If you aren't beating the market you're losing money in opportunity cost, because you could've just bought an index fund and made more.

(Also, you don't just need to beat pure chance, because pure chance is not guaranteed — or I think likely — to result in net zero losses on average, since you are then in an information-asymmetric environment where your trading partner looks at data and you do not. But regardless, even if you "make" money but underperform the market, you are effectively losing money in opportunity cost!)

You need to beat fees and 1/2 spread and a few other costs.

Yes, this would be a more complete statement.

What input data did you feed into TimeGPT? Did you fine tune it?

Humans haven’t been in the loop for about two decades now. High frequency quants just use faster, lower latency models than AI stuff.

Only for certain timeframes.

Mine of your business. That's the point of open source.

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