Does Israel's Stock Market Know Something About Gaza That We Don't? | Hacker News Reader

Does Israel's Stock Market Know Something About Gaza That We Don't?

haaretz.com

8 pointswslh22 comments

The market doesn't see a full blown war with Hezbollah and Iran (if it did, oil prices would have been way higher), and sees a very real possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia. If the war is contained to Gaza it's not a huge threat to Israel's economy - it's a hit for sure but not existential. It doesn't seem like Iran, Hezbollah or Israel are particularly interested in going to war now so I think the market is being reasonable.

They have no definition for victory that they can achieve in Gaza or with Hezbollah and this is causing a lot of stress on the Israel government and Israeli society (especially because both still want to punish Palestinians). It seems like Israel is headed toward civil war at the least. I don't know how anyone could be bullish in the long run.

I see no civil war in the cards anytime soon. We have serious issues but civil war isn't likely at all. I think its more likely to happen in the U.S than in Israel actually. I hope it doesn't happen in either place.

I think the reality is that at some point the Israel government is going to have to become a fully secular democracy. Do you think that can happen within the existing governmental system or will it require a completely new government?

I'm not sure what you mean. Do you mean Israel needs to cancel Zionism and become open for Palestinian immigration (e.g 'Right of Return')? Or simply become a more liberal version of the current Zionist system? The second is possible in the next election, people are sick of Netanyahu and his cronies.

The former since that would be the definition of a secular democracy. The same immigration and citizenship laws regardless of religion or ethnicity. There's definitely need of some reparations as well, so I think right of return would play a role in re-establishing the Palestinian population from where they were displaced.

https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1752709126382289183?s=20

Let me summarize how Israel's war is going: it's way behind on schedule in taking control of the Strip; Arab normalization has been stopped in its tracks and is now made conditional on progress on a two-state solution that Israel categorically rejects; it's running out of both manpower and ammunition as the war drags on and reservists have to be recalled; the US, on which it depends for virtually everything from supplies to political cover, is getting attacked everywhere in the region and may be drawn into a war with Iran; it's being accused of genocide and the EU, its largest trading partner, is coming up with a hare-brained plan to restart the peace process that will never go anywhere but will further damage Israel's reputation when it rejects it;

it still looks as though Israel may eventually get into a far larger and more difficult war against Hezbollah in the North, which certainly wouldn't help with its manpower and ammunition problem; and now Egypt, by far the country whose stability is the most important for Israel's security, is on the verge of economic collapse in part because, as a result of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea (which are themselves a consequence of Israel's war), traffic through Suez has dropped precipitously and the country has lost its main source of hard currency.

But if you listen to Israeli right-wingers, they will assure you that victory, whatever that means exactly, is just around the corner! Indeed, one can only admire the strategic genius of the Israeli government for bringing about such a brilliant situation, which reminds me of the aftermath of Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982, another magnificent victory.

Your summary is based on a tweet that lacks references and requires in-depth discussion.

Regarding the "two-state solution", which is central to this issue: if a genuine two-state solution is proposed and the Palestinians agree to it, it is highly improbable that it won't progress. The vast majority of Israelis accept it, and it is supported by more than a vast majority of Jews worldwide. There is no scenario in which Israeli extremists could overturn this solution. Reference: Jewish history.

I don't disagree with everything here but some statements deserve scrutiny:

> it's way behind on schedule in taking control of the Strip

Whose schedule ? Many, including in the U.S, didn't think Israel was even capable of reaching the point it has (which is partial or complete control of the entire strip besides Rafah in the South and the dismantling of big parts of Hamas' fighting power). We've been reading over and over (by both Israeli and American analysts) that Israel would suffer thousands of dead soldiers and still wouldn't be able to do it , so far this is proving to be false. Officials in Israel said it would take a long time right from the start.

> it's running out of both manpower and ammunition as the war drags on and reservists have to be recalled

I don't really this is happening yet, any numbers to back it up ? War with Iran aside, in the current situation it looks like Israel can continue for months on end. The economy so far has been surprisingly resilient, mandatory conscription is going to be brought back to 3 years from 2 years 8 months. Solutions will be found - especially considering Gaza now doesn't require a full invasion but smaller counter terror campaigns.

> and now Egypt, by far the country whose stability is the most important for Israel's security, is on the verge of economic collapse

This seems like hyperbole to me. Also, the stability of Egypt is important not just for Israel but for basically everyone in the region - I don't think the U.S will let Egypt fail so quickly.

> Indeed, one can only admire the strategic genius of the Israeli government for bringing about such a brilliant situation

Israel never wanted this war. It tried to reach a state of non War with Hamas for years - and failed. Now that Israel is fighting Hamas hard, its getting blamed for all the years it tried not to fight Hamas and also getting blamed for fighting Hamas (so damn if you do, damn if you don't).

> so damn if you do, damn if you don't

Damn, sounds tough being a settler-colonist. Maybe if they stopped doing that people wouldn’t be so mad at them??

I remember before the ground incursion everyone was warning about the trap Hamas set for IDF, with thousands of soldiers KIA. That it will take years for the army to take over Gaza city, the heavily fortified Hamass stronghold, etc...

Well after two months of fighting with very minimal losses, soldiers could enjoy a nice coffee with sunset on the Gaza beach and that beautiful city (used to be). And now the brigade that was there left home.

The economy will recover, they had worse. Red Sea conflict with Houthis created a new economic opportunity with a land route over Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Haifa port, this is an amazing thing that would have been crazy just 5 years ago. Most importantly Arab nations still want to continue normalization with Israel and just did minimal lip service to support Palestinians. Netanyahu will be out and that will be a huge boost to the country in every aspect. Immigration from UK and US jumped 300%, and highly educated professionals are moving to Israel.

The outlook is very optimistic IMHO.

This isn't accurate. Israel doesn't control Gaza and in fact has lost control areas that it once had under control. Hamas continues to launch rockets from northern Gaza and multiple battalions have had to be withdrawn, including the elite Golani brigade. Israel is also under major pressure in the north with over 100k settlers evacuated and constant losses from Hezbollah. That's not even counting the political battles Israel has lost and will continue to lose.

> Arab normalization has been stopped in its tracks and is now made conditional on progress on a two-state solution that Israel categorically rejects;

not anymore: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-pushe...

https://archive.is/DGfrO

Maybe it's because they receive money from other countries to help them commit this genocide?

Have you checked the ICJ ruling about Israel genocide?

And Israel will continue receiving money, unlike Hamas/UNRWA that Israel managed to defund.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com