I don't think it's time for an obituary that counts the spinoffs and devkit revenue. FB and Apple got the timeline wrong, but the AR story isn't over. Looking down at phones still fundamentally sucks and eventually AR will be good enough.

Point of comparison: Steve Jobs started talking about the iPhone when someone asked him about the next big thing at the Macintosh premier in 1984. 10 years later, he was fired from Apple and working on bespoke workstations. 20 years later, Palm/Blackberry owned the smartphone market. 30 years later, Apple owned the smartphone market. These stories take time.