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Comment by NickC25 | Hacker News Reader

>I can’t imagine them ever moving enough units to recover those costs.

I bet there were similar reservations about the initial iPhone, too. CapEx spending to develop the Vision Pro will probably be spread out over years, in which Apple will undoubtedly release the Vision Pro 2, 3 etc..

I'm not an accountant or an R&D guy but the first version always costs the most, right? Improvements over the years cost less and less as the platform is more established, I would think (if all other costs remain relatively stable).

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> I bet there were similar reservations about the initial iPhone, too.

Microsoft: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance."

Palm: “We've learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone,” Colligan said. “PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in.”

RIM: "in terms of a sort of a sea-change for BlackBerry, I would think that’s overstating it"

Nokia: “The development of mobile phones will be similar in PCs. Even with the Mac, Apple has attracted much attention at first, but they have still remained a niche manufacturer. That will be in mobile phones as well”

Apple: "I like our products amplifying thoughts and I think AR can help amplify the human connection. I’ve never been a fan of VR like that because I think it does the opposite."

The difference is all those companies already proved there’s a market for phones.

Same for watches.

Same for portable music players.

The same cannot be said for VR.

The iPhone had a very clear path forward. In particular, while it's success wasn't guaranteed the market (high spec phones) was already sizeable and people were paying substantial money on it.

The Vision Pro is none of that and they'll have to build the market (a non gaming ARish headset) by themselves.

> I bet there were similar reservations about the initial iPhone

There were not.

There may have been reservations…right up until Steve announced and demoed it.

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