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Comment by berserk1010 | Hacker News Reader

Take a look at Zeihan's video where he shows in a graph how US debt level compares to other major economies. https://youtu.be/mcZPOuI-vcU?t=939. US is in the middle of the pack. US is going to be ok.

Also, watch until 20:38. You will see how screwed up some countries are when it comes to debt.

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I started watching and couldn't stop until the end. Now the only question I have is how much should I believe Zeihan? He makes a lot of bold assertions, what's his track record?

That's a valid question. He does have videos where he just speaks off top of his head, and I prefer the ones where he has charts and numbers that he speaks to. If you don't believe his charts and numbers, find ones online that you believe.

I do think someone who can hold that much minute, dry details in his brain and can cross reference them is going to be smarter than most of us. He does after all consult for major corporations and the U.S government.

Yeah, he sounds very smart and pieces a lot of things together, but in a very assertive way. For example he goes on to talk about how gas is used only in the butadien petrochemical vertical but could displace oil verticals and have competitive advantage over other countries. That's cool as a theory, but really isn't a commoditized market a more likely scenario in a capitalist global economy? If I'm Mr. Gas I'm going to sell my LNG at a higher price abroad instead of selling it for the same in the US for others to make a profit instead

> That's cool as a theory, but really isn't a commoditized market a more likely scenario in a capitalist global economy?

Zeihan’s thesis is that the global economy is no longer global because the US is no longer interested in being the world police patrolling the shipping lane. That is, “the end of globalization and Bretton Woods.”

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...

Zeihan is informed and generally right, better than 95% of sources. However, there are certain things he will get wrong imo, such as details and a certain siding of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and portraying Navalny as far more militarily hawkish than he is.

I’ve personally disliked Zeihans gung-ho rants about how everyone is nothing without the US but I do have to say, he has nailed the China issues pretty well, him and Kyle Bass.

Not great. His predictions for the outcome of the Ukraine/Russia war were way off, and I haven't seen a mea culpa video for that just yet. There's a good debate between him and Ian Bremmer somewhere that highlights the flaws in Zeihan's thinking. I don't know what his motive is, probably likes, subscribes, money, etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqsVR9Hl2oQ&t=482s

I listened to this discussion and Bremmer and Zeihan agreed more than they disagreed. What 'flaws' are you referring to?

> US is going to be ok.

Or, alternatively, US and a bunch of other countries are not going to be ok.

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