Nassim Taleb Says US Faces a 'Death Spiral' of Swelling Debt | Hacker News Reader

Nassim Taleb Says US Faces a 'Death Spiral' of Swelling Debt

bloomberg.com

https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1750537238578930101

This is a very frightening hockey stick.

It looks bad but if interest rates go down (which they almost certainly will) the interest payments will decrease. I think the poster has just gone in and made a future prediction based on the most dramatic increase due to interest rate rises and then said that it will continue forever.

This looks so scary, it feels that there must be something left out.

Adjust for inflation or gdp as denominator?

It depends how fucked up the rest of the world gets. As long as the rest are blundering about, killing each other, energy/trade flows keep getting disrupted the US can coast. The time to start sweating is when there is peace and China, India et al start realizing they don't need the US for too much. That's when the party ends.

Seems unlikely since China, India et al don’t get along well with each other

There's a lot of difference between not getting along well with each other and not trading .

"From 2015 to 2022, India-China bilateral trade grew by 90.14%, an average yearly growth of 12.87%. In 2022, the overall trade with China increased by 8.47% year on year to reach USD 136.26 billion, crossing the USD 100 billion mark for a second time in a row. The trade deficit came at USD 101.28 billion as India’s imports from China witnessed an increase by 118.77% to reach USD 118.77 billion, meanwhile India’s exports to China decreased by 37.59% year on year to reach USD 17.49 billion, down for last year’s net exports of USD 28.03 billion" [0]

[0](https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/eoibejing_pages/MjQ,)

https://archive.vn/dxK8W

well, they do have the printer.

I think this could be the only palatable option. There’s no practical alternative.

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