Hacker News Reader

Comment by thisgoesnowhere | Hacker News Reader

You think that there is the equivalent of 3.8b dollars of inflowing to Bitcoin specifically every day?

The total amount individual traders put into stocks in the first week of the year is ~7b. Is Bitcoin actually > 3x higher than that?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-05/bofa-says...

View on HN

Those numbers aren't new inflows of capital into Bitcoin. They're the total volume traded both buys and sells. There are traders, market makers, etc both buying and selling many times a day, and anyone wanting to make large block trades can get a sufficiently modest piece of that. 5% is very achievable with very little price impact even in markets with lower liquidity than Bitcoin.

All that matters is if there if fresh money coming in and how much there is if the German government tried to sell. We have no idea how much money is fresh and how much there is wash until someone places a legitimate market sell for a large quantity of BTC.

I'm not saying it is wash trading since I don't have a cristal ball or insider info but after the recent lack of price action from the ETFs, it doesn't suggest the existing volume is legitimate.

> All that matters is if there if fresh money coming in

Every time a trade happens, someone is "coming in" and someone is "getting out". The more trades there are, the more opportunities there are for anyone (including the German government) to take the other side.

> after the recent lack of price action from the ETFs, it doesn't suggest the existing volume is legitimate.

This is by no means the only reasonable interpretation of the price action surrounding the ETF approval. It's totally plausible that the lack of price action just means that the amount of money "selling the news" of the final ETF approval is around the same as the amount of money "buying the rumor" of a big influx of cash.

> Every time a trade happens, someone is "coming in" and someone is "getting out"

This is not true in a wash trade which is what I have repeatedly been saying.

That volume is not wash trading (i.e. "fake volume" in my words). There is fake volume in crypto but that happens largely on the smaller, less established exchanges that are trying to make a name for themselves. You can see this from the "**" markings on CoinMarketCap that indicate that they don't include that volume in their total volume calculations. I did not include any **'d volume in my above calculations.

But don't take it from me. This comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39200966 elsewhere in this thread agrees that you can move that amount of Bitcoin in a small number of weeks.

We have no idea how much wash trading is happening. I know for a fact that it is not all wash trading but it's also not 0% wash trading. Both extremes are equally absurd to claim.

A billion dollars isn't a lot of money any more. We could start seeing trillionaires appear on stage in about 25 years; which would imply "billionaire" being what millionaire is now.

I'm talking purely in relative terms to the entire us stock market.

the new ETFs have had inflows that high over just the last week, so, yes? if bitcoins price has barely moved by ETFs that buy bitcoin based on how much people bought the ETFs then yes there is that much liquidity

The bitcoin ETFs have had 7b in us dollar inflows in a week?

The ETFs had net inflows of less than $1B. GBTC had significant outflows.

I probably had not been reading net then, thanks.

Looks like the German government will have no issue liquidating their amount quickly over several trading sessions, venues and OTC if they desire to

they didn't say that, they said 3.8b of volume

Reply on news.ycombinator.com