The Vision Pro | Hacker News Reader

The Vision Pro

daringfireball.net

28 pointscoloneltcb10 comments

> My review kit included Apple’s $200 travel case.

I saw that the carry case is $200 and was surprised that they're charging this much. But I guess it makes sense since they won't be producing a super large volume of these, and they probably won't have much external competition (because most third-party accessory companies won't jump into a market like this, given the low volume).

Spigen has already announced a case for $99. I expect there will be more in the weeks to come.

> In a few years, after a few product generations, we will all look back at this first Vision device and laugh. We’ll laugh at the external battery, we will laugh at the size and weight of the device, and eventually we will laugh at its price.

There may be a few people laughing all the way to the bank: those who bought first-gen units and left them shrink-wrapped in order to grab top dollar at auction in 20 years. I'd guess they might go for $100k at that time. The question is, what would $3,500 of AAPL be worth 20 years from now?

> The question is, what would $3,500 of AAPL be worth 20 years from now?

It's hard to truly believe it'll continue to go up. It's already worth 3 trillion dollars, with $400B revenue in 2022 or nearly 5% of the global GDP - how much global value can it actually provide compared to literally everything else? 5%? 10%?

Rumors of a car are still in the offing. But you're right; even if Apple Vision turns out to be a wild success, it will largely cannibalize computers/tablets/phones, not supplement them, in the long run.

US' GDP is ~$25T, world's GDP is ~$100T [0], so $400B in revenues are respectively 1.6% of US' GDP and 0.4% of the world's. Nothing near the 5% you're referring to.

[0]: https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/

I meant to denote .5%.

Unlike today's nostalgic retrocomputing, I fully expect any recent Apple product to be impossible to use in 20 years. Can't contact cloud server to verify application. Can't download first-boot software upgrade. Can't register your account.

So your future market is purely people who will continue keeping the thing in the box.

It seems to be the perfect personal entertainment device, if your lounging or laying on a bed, otherwise it has significant compromises for any other use case. Much like the original iPhone.

Maybe the equivalent of a Vision Pro '3GS' can resolve those issues?

An interesting quirk is that the user's head size and shape, relative positioning of their eyes, etc., really affect the perceived comfort and value. In that sense it's the first major truly 'personal' device out of Apple.

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