There aren't any manned missions to Mars on the horizon. Returning to the Moon possibly to stay is on the horizon for the next decade or so, with concrete plans taking shape and launch capabilities either there or nearly there.

I think we'll see what amounts to McMurdo on the Moon long before we see humans on Mars, and it really makes the most sense because the Moon is only a few days away vs. months away. If something goes wrong on the Moon supplies can be sent or people can come home quickly, whereas on Mars a major failure or health problem equals almost certain death with no hope of rescue or return in time.

The Moon makes more sense economically too. It's close enough for mining and/or tourism to at least offset the cost a little.

Elon's fixation on Mars or bust is kind of irrational and monomaniacal.