Can Earthquakes Be Predicted? (2022)
heritageproject.caltech.edu
heritageproject.caltech.edu
People that noticed these anomaly, however, cannot correlates these anomaly to the necessary parameter that is really required for true earthquake prediction: Magnitude, Location, and Time. Without saying what is the magnitude and location, you cannot estimate the earthquake damage. Time limit is also important.
Review article linked from usgs.gov: https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/bssa/article-abstract/1...
I found this research pretty mind blowing and took these notes to highlight this topic.
Underground “Natural Hydrogen”: Notes on Research Review Paper by Viacheslav Zgonnik - https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ucnE0B_WQA4zo8tTTsZyBu0i...
Hydrogen is associated with Earthquakes and can maybe even predict them!
In areas with recent tectonic activity: “Higher hydrogen concentrations were observed,” and “hydrogen gas was observed in ground water.” [pg 20]
“[Correlated with earthquakes,] hydrogen concentrations measured at continuous monitoring sites show abrupt changes in concentration over several orders of magnitude, up to 10 times, in a short period of time.” [pg 40]
“Indeed, at epicenters of large earthquakes a reduction in the ozone layer above them has been observed.” [pg 40]
“A systematic study of hydrogen in aquifers shows that H2 concentrations are in- versely correlated with the age of the area's last tectonic activity.” [pg 41]
“Another study shows that hydrogen concentrations in earthquake-associated faults are usually much higher than concentrations in non-earthquake faults.” [pg 41]
‘During earthquakes hydrogen concentrations in fault zones have been shown to increase by several orders of magnitude.” [pg 41]
“Numerous articles discuss hydrogen as a good earthquake indicator and the possibility of monitoring hydrogen for the prediction of seismic events.” [pg 41] More detail below
seems to offend scientific types and be shunned for some reason, and yet the video evidence is there of his forecasts being correct, and his methodology is documented.
>his methodology is documented
How would you summarize it?
They must be sensing something we can make an artificial sensor for.
I think I've read somewhere that the ancient Greeks were speculating on this...
Earthquakes have what are called primary (P) and secondary (S) waves. The primary is a sharp high frequency wave and the secondary waves are a lower frequency rumble that you feel as the earthquake. The P wave propagates faster so if you're distant from the epicenter the P waves might arrive fractions of a minutes earlier. That's what you see in videos of dogs jumping up and running off or birds taking flight "right before" the earthquake.
Oklahoma, 2012 seismic sequence in Emilia (Italy), Sichuan Basin are already examples that triggered protests and call for investigations: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Northern_Italy_earthquake...
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2187718/chin...
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1225942
An example study for US that states the activity is exponantially linked to fracking sites: https://par.nsf.gov/servlets/purl/10233410
> "Exponential relationship between the total number of earthquakes and the number of wells in the Texas during the study period 1998–2018 with correlation R2=0.726."
In the tragic earthquakes of 2023 in Turkey, this relationship was again discussed in mainstream media: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkey%E2%80%93Syria_eart...
It's not fracking itself but actually wastewater injection has a bigger influence in triggering bigger earthquakes according to what I've read. Moreover, it's also known that dams have a significant impact:
https://archive.internationalrivers.org/blogs/227/china-eart....
> "The devastating earthquake in Sichuan, which took at least 69,000 lives in May 2008, may have been unleashed by the huge Zipingpu Dam. New scientific evidence suggests that the filling of the Zipingpu reservoir may have activated a dormant fault line near the dam site."
Shallow faults are definitely activated. Probability of deep faults activated through full destabilization of a region? Unknown for now.
There are also reports of pretty interesting/odd electromagnetic phenomena reaching up to the ionosphere, which might be what animals are ultimately sensing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_light
A lot of these videos might be transformers blowing out or swinging power lines touching, but given the ubiquity of surveillance cameras and dashcams, we're fortunately getting more and more data. If there's something there that can be used for prediction better than seconds ahead of the earthquake, the value would obviously be immense.
It might of course be that animals are reacting to something else, like sulphuric gases being released from the ground, infrasound of early earthquake acitivty etc. – we just don't know enough about it yet, but the fact that there's correlation between animal behavior and seismic activity seems worth studying.