https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/ev-lfp-battery-price-w...
The recent price war in China is a testament to that.
If ubiquitous and cheap charging infrastructure is not being priced in, which is still a blocker for many.
For example, I cannot reasonably run lengths of 110v extension cords down the block to charge a car overnight, and acquiring my own house with a garage is dramatically more expensive than any fuel savings. :p
I used to run extension cords out of windows and across the sidewalk to charge a Fiat 500e.
It's unfortunate that EVs make the most immediate sense in high-density urban settings, but those same settings have lots of people who can't use the simple kinds of charging infrastructure (eg, Level 1/2 chargers).
Truly high-density urban settings should ideally find transportation solutions without cars.
Look at the numerous existing city public spaces built into high profile architecture, where basically no one ever hangs out in. (There's a TED talk about this.)
I was not exactly in that situation. First time, I lived in a room on the 3rd floor of a house, but I'd run the extension cord out of the house owner's workshop basement window. I could reliably park in front of the house, however.
2nd time, I ran the cord out of a 2nd story window from my room, but the parking space was behind the house's fence under my window.
3rd situation, I would run the cord from the apartment exercise room, out the window to the fenced in parking lot behind the building. However, the building management actually removed those outlets! Then, that law requiring them to let us charge passed, but by then, it was time for us to move out. Now, I have a garage of my own!
I don't have a garage attached to my house, it's a shared garage building. But once a few owners got EVs, and it became clear to others that EVs were the future, we got some minimal renovations done that allowed anyone to pay to have a slow AC charger installed.
Oslo has been rolling out street-side AC charging poles. There's never quite enough but the growth is steady.
Other countries may not have the same incentives, but that just shifts the point where the rapid transition starts by a few years I think, since cars get cheaper and better all the time. And remember that Norway is fairly cold, which is brutal on range in the winter, so it's not really a fully ideal place for EVs (though at least the car starts reliably every time unlike diesel)
You don't need a garage, just some sort of reserved parking space... There are plenty of weatherproof electrical boxes. It costs a bit of money to have a trench from your home to your car parking area, but far less than buying a house.
And that "110v extension cord" can supply 240V with just a change of connectors on either end (e.g.: 6-30p) allowing charging twice as fast.
I don't think the OP was worried about people who have the ability to dig a trench and install underground wiring to a reserved spot in a "car parking area". I suppose it's not technically having a garage but it sure feels like it in spirit.
I presume manufacturers make packs using whatever cell sizes they can source?
I had thought the trend was away from cylindrical (eg 4680) and towards prismatic or pouch cells? Whatever happened to the 1 metre long BYD cell: https://pushevs.com/2020/05/26/byd-blade-prismatic-battery-c...
[1] https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-c...
Do they have a model using LiFePOs now?
To the main parent, the runway for further EV drivetrain cost reductions is at least a decade more. The LFP and sodium ion production roadmaps have almost 200 wh/kg sodium ion and 230 wh/kg LFP on it, so that is reasonably a five year likelihood.
10-20 year is solid state, sulfur techs, and other chemistries poised to double or triple density of the cells.
The first curve shows the really low commercial vehicle demand on batteries. This will not be the case, commercial vehicles from busses to worksite vehicles to town delivery vans are going to goddamn explode in demand, once all the business owners realize the TCO of EV drivetrains is so low.
I've been pretty disappointed in electric companies, perhaps they are pricing in grid adaptation, but wind and solar should be relentlessly driving down the cost of electricity and something is up with that.
The dual headed dragon of economies of scale/density in batteries combined with the price drop in electricity for wind/solar is something that ICEs simply cannot win against.
Which is why I chuckle at every mainstream media article about EV sales fluctuations or anti-EV stories, or the inevitable "I can't charge because Apartment/Parking Garage/City". People, this is an economic tsunami coming, and it has already started. All those infrastructure problems will be solved.
The "I rent" is the most mystifying thing, indicative of local governments not getting ahead of this. What should be cheaper to wire up, a suburban development sprawled over 10 square miles, or 100 cars in a one block radius? Governments need to be incentivizing apartment charging pronto.
For batteries not put in EVs a slightly lower price will get them installed in grid storage solutions.
Consumers will be the last to see lower prices while demand outpaces supply.
I'm hoping in about 5 years, especially with sodium ion in production, that changes.
The really cool thing about battery production is that it's not like an ICE engine where you have to design an ICE for this size application and an ICE for that size application: the batteries can be used in a leaf blower, a moped, a car, a truck, or a massive grid.
The battery supply can be routed wherever needed. That should result in a vastly cheaper overall industry than the ICE drivetrain industry. Sure you need different electric motors, but those aren't THAT different, and the industrial world has already been building all the necessary sizes and variations for a century now.
Demand just keeps increasing, too.
Companies will gladly pocket the difference between what they charge the customers and their $100/KWh bulk price.