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Comment by PedroBatista | Hacker News Reader

That’s a common western view and wishful thinking but life is about power, not happiness. They can be all dissatisfied they want but a few crackdowns always put them in line, and in the end this is what matters.

I know it reads harsh but there’s little to no morality in this, they are “unhappy” because the expectations of having a good job, money, a big house and general prosperity forever is not materializing. In the past when China was really growing at 10% a year, there were also no freedom and horrible things were happening to many people, yet people where “very happy”, again no morality just a matter of power/money.

“Meaningful change” will happen if they align with who has the power at that time and there is no indication “young people” will relinquish their power when they finally have it.

Current old powerful people were also young at some point.

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> They can be all dissatisfied they want but a few crackdowns always put them in line, and in the end this is what matters.

Until it doesn't. World history is the history of power being consolidated and then (often forcibly) distributed, either to new consolidators or democracies of various types.

For many years I've been worrying that this becomes harder and harder as surveillance technology improves. I'm also concerned that free media makes it much easier for foreign powers to disrupt things. An issue that doesn't destabilize authoritarian countries. These two potential trends or forces have me very worried about the long-term future of mankind with authoritarian becoming a one-way road.

And the Q is are they as unhappy as youths in the west? And at what point of unhappiness does that translate to systemic change? Is that point different in PRC system. PRC youth are behind west in adjusting to expectations in post academic inflation world. You have the % grinding away in good jobs being sad about cost of living just like in the west. Then you have % living at home on parents dime, with no onerous student loans, who doesn't want to work a well paying blue collar job (lot's of manufacturing opportunities out there that a poor Americans would work) because they wasted their life getting degrees. They're not working 2-3 part time jobs to get into 5-6 figure debts. They're currently on a different point of the disenfranchisement spectrum.

The light at end of tunnel is PRC kids will have more livable options as PRC develops interior provinces and bring them up to tier2 status. Many adequate, lower cost, decent QoL cities in PRC that rivals tier1 western economic hubs in convenience and lifestyle, versus most of west where it seems we'll be trapped in a handful of increasingly unaffordable areas. But it will take a mass change in culture, kids and parents accept their mediocrity - inevitable with normal distribution - and all those years cramming in involuted academic gamble won't pay off in top 1% job in air conditioned office of a tier1 city.

> And the Q is are they as unhappy as youths in the west?

that's not comparable, as average Chinese youths are in poverty, living off $300/month. https://www.newsweek.com/china-article-censorship-1-billion-...

> The light at end of tunnel is PRC kids will have more livable options

That's very unlikely as China continues in its Great Depression https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2024/01/22/chinas-.... And with all economic engines declining (export, internal consumer, real estate), and no big systemic change happening, it will continue this path for a very long time. Remember that Japan's downturn lasted 30 years, and Japanese citizens were making $2000/month on average, not $300/month.

No the average unskilled Chinese elderly left behind by modernzation are stuck in poor informal economy. Average skilled labour in skilled jobs pays significantly better.

TIL 5% growth great depression. What china did was remove 3% of excess real estate malinvestment. Housing is down as expected, but that's a good correction. Other sectors broadly are still growing. Consumption is fine about world average factor in gov social transfers. Everyone's export is down, PRC relative down less after capturing 1T more in value over covid (greatest on record). And export @20% of GDP isn't even a big driver. Export dependant is when you're at 40-50%+. PRC continuing this path of 4-5% grown is... great? Big change happening is PRC ramping up skilled talent and skilled jobs in high value sectors to take on profitable western incumbants. It takes time, but EV/renewables just the start. Indicators everywhere PRC broadly moving up value chain.

If you're going to do JP 2000/month per capita, then PRC is ~2000 per month right now. Right about where JP/SKR was when TFR crapped out. Bottom quartiles are poorer. THat's basic statistic inevitablility. But guess what? Lots of japanese and korean grandparent farmers were poor back then to. Many still are. It's kind of a phenomenon if you follow east asian reporting. But their kids who were in manufacturing were comfortable, and their grandkids in high skilled sectors were "rich".

But this thread is about happiness and livable options. JP/SKR fucked up because they concentrated opportunties in a few regions. That's the trap (western) urbanists wanted for PRC 10 years ago, noting PRC tier 1 cities are remarkably not dense, and they should 2x/3x population, as if it was not affordable enough. Now PRC did opposite, expand developement in land, and lots of new cities/hubs are openning up. Tier 2/3+ cities will be a lot more livable in PPP terms if everything goes right. And give it a few years, 1-2 child policy 1-2:2:4 ratio means every Chinese kid is almost guaranteed to inherit housing whena grand parent croaks. The TLDR is PRC engine for growth is fine, it's not overheated anymore. And PRC urban/develpment/social patterns is trying to avoid the pitfalls of modern SKR/JP. Keyword being trying. Edit: I just realized we're engaging across multiple threads. I'm going to stop because I don't think it will be productive for either of us.

> life is about power, not happiness.

But sufficiently unhappy people, in sufficient numbers, have more power than cynics think. (Though less than optimists think. But enough to change things, at least sometimes. Not always, but sometimes.)

Agreed, that's why functional governments ( democratic or not ) always offer some kind of "candy" for the plebs. It's an optimization problem, what it the exact point where we lose control of the situation? then dial it back a few notches.

It's not because of morality of being "good", it's a practical mechanism for every power structure.

The "saving grace", is that these power structures tend to become so corrupt they can't assess that threshold anymore and then "people revolt", which by itself is far from any guarantee of success or any meaningful change. That's one of the reasons the "silent majority" is not too adept of "revolutions" and always wait to see which horse they should bet.

> but life is about power

This is the most western view

LOL. Soviet Russia and Imperial China are calling, they want to show you what power looks like.

East India Company never happened, I guess, lol

Agreed, the West has ben better at power for the last few hundred years. I'm responding to the laughable idea that this perspective is exclusive to the west. It clearly isn't, and besides, imperial China seems to be on the rise again, so in the next century they might even grab back the "stinkiest asshole in the room" award.

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