Yeah, their valuation being based on the assumption of infinite exponential growth was always going to smack into the cold hard reality of the S curve at some point. But Tesla could lose a massive amount of valuation and still be overpriced, especially compared to other large car companies like GM, Ford, Stellantis, BMW, and BYD.

The only thing saving Tesla from being absolutely clobbered in the market today, at least in the US, is the competitors doing some baffling and outright dumb things with their own EVs. Like Toyota announcing that they think EVs are a fad and aren't worth pursuing. Or GM ditching its only EV that actually sells for some vague promise of a car that is at least 2 years away.

I also think the lower numbers for last year are due to dumping tons of money into a truck platform that seems unlikely to be a good seller. I'm expecting that once you factor in all of the R&D costs the Cybertruck will be a net negative for Tesla with poor sales and low (for Tesla) margins.