Tesla misses 4th qtr estimates on weak auto sales and warns of lower growth

Numbers:

- Q4 Gross Margins 17.6%, EST. 18.1%, down 6.12% YoY

- Q4 automotive margins 17.2% ahead of 16.3% Q3, bullish

- Q4 Adjusted EPS $0.71, EST. $0.73c, down 40% YoY

- Q4 FCF $2.06B, EST. $1.45B, up 45% YoY

- Q4 Rev. $25.2B, EST. $25.9B, up 3% YoY

- Solar deployed 41 Megawatts, not very exciting, really lagging competitors here.

- revenue from credits sold to other companies was $433M down from $550 Q3

- this should eventually go to zero over the next 10 years

- 1.2M Model Y's sold,

Notes:

- EV sales in general rose by about 50% last year in the US

- TSLA now under 50% of EV market in the US, still absurdly good, but falling

- TSLA note growth in 2024 "may be notably lower" than 2023, but refused to offer guidance

- energy storage doubled 2022, that's pretty awesome

- when will they stop manufacturing the S and X, they are pretty minimal compared to the Y & 3 now

Look for:

- next gen(cheap cross over) "leaked" this morning, is that due to bad numbers?

  - expected to deliver 100,000/week of these after ramp up
  
  - will this be built outside of hte US to save money?

- dojo computer talk ($1B is alot to put into this space)

- will they break out cyber truck, or hide those numbers, note, they dodged it and said it would take a long time to ramp up

- V12 FSD notes. What data will they release and will the shift to NN to manage handling instead of hard coded rules work out?

- what are they making from super charging?

Thoughts:

- broke down below $200, options call writers win,

- Solar disappointing again, when will they spin that out and focus?

No mention of how many cybertruck pre-order cancellations in the shareholder PDF...

I personally know two people who got tired of waiting and now own Rivians (and then cancelled).

At this point it would really help if they stopped filtering everything through Elon. The Musk prism scatters light in crazy ways and he doesn't speak to a general audience.