Rolexes are in a spiraling crash as "the bubbles have popped" in collectibles | Hacker News Reader

Rolexes are in a spiraling crash as "the bubbles have popped" in collectibles

markets.businessinsider.com

20 pointspaulpauper42 comments

Allegedly new restrictions in China concerning "gifts" to officials contributed to this. Expensive watches were a common choice before the laws went into place.

Collectibles are an economic high wire balancing act between supply and demand.

Too many objects/supply and the price goes down.

Not enough collectors/demand and the price goes down.

To keep the market price at a high level requires a careful balance --- like what deBeers has been doing with the diamond market for decades. But they are now losing control.

https://fortune.com/2023/09/03/diamond-demand-falling-lab-gr...

So a Daytona only runs $25K instead of $30K. Sweet.

Smells like a crypto puff piece.

They were also recently hit with a huge lawsuit to make their supply more available.

Maybe they understood market dynamics of luxury goods more than the government?

"Rolex fined £80 million for preventing its watches being sold online"

https://www.watchpro.com/rolex-fined-100-million-for-prevent...

Restrictions are needed to maintain cartel like control over the watches and keep the price at 10x that of the comparable competition.

I still don't understand the point of wearing a crazy expensive hunk of steel on your arm. Sure, its a very well-made hunk of steel by very skilled people. My phone is more accurate, as is literally any synced clock on ubiquitous computers. I guess its about flexing wealth or personal reward. The cult surrounding them worships the watches as if they were life itself.

You don’t understand it, so it must be a cult?

Maybe I don’t want more computers strapped to my body, maybe I don’t want to interact with one every time I need to know the time. Maybe I don’t need a subsecond accurate clock throughout the day. Maybe I just appreciate the design and knowledge that has gone into a nice timepiece. Maybe it’s a family heirloom, maybe it reminds me of a deceased family member.

To be frank, maybe you should pull your head out of your ass.

I invite you to take a real look into the watch world and tell me it isn't akin to a cult.

It's crazy.

Back when I was on Reddit, the front page figured I was interested in watches, so it kept filling my front page with watch-buying comments.

People were talking about their interactions with authorised dealers, asking things like "My ad refuses to sell me [expensive watch] until I buy more [medium watches]. I've already bought a number of [expensive watch]. Should I try to find a new ad?"

Edit:

If you're thinking about joining the cult, here's "10 ways you can beat the Rolex waiting list [1]"

  1. Dress smart when visiting the Rolex authorised dealer
  2. Be personable and nice with the Rolex authorised dealer
  3. Build a genuine relationship with the Rolex authorised dealer
  4. Be knowledgable about Rolex
  5. Go into the Rolex authorised dealer wearing a Rolex
  6. Let the Rolex authorised dealer know you are serious
  7. Don’t keep changing your mind on the Rolex model you want
  8. Show your face regularly at the Rolex authorised dealer
  9. Try to have a purchase history with the Rolex authorised dealer
  10. Make sure the Rolex authorised dealer doesn’t think you are going to flip the watch for profit

[1] https://www.vulcanwatchstraps.com/blog/how-to-beat-the-rolex...

I'm not sure that owning the watch is even about the watch itself anymore

> Make sure the Rolex authorised dealer doesn’t think you are going to flip the watch for profit

The entire dog and pony show is about this. Rolex, like Ticketmaster, wants to sell as much as possible. But they’re mindful of not selling to scalpers in an attempt to control their brand.

I own a Rolex and wear it most days. You may be surprised to find that Reddit is not representative of the real world.

When you commented I assumed you did own one. But you also assume that I don't

That’s fairly surprising seems as you apparently don’t like them.

Why did you buy it (assuming you did)? Do you wear it?

I dislike wearing watches since the extra weight on my wrist annoys me, but that's a personal thing and not a watch thing. I do dislike watches though received an heirloom one from my partner's father when we were married. It does mean something now since they have passed in the time between. My issue isn't so much with watches as a whole as what Rollex et al have come to be today, being largely meaningless status symbols with a massive supporting network

Surprisingly similar to the sneaker craze.

Yeah. I'm not so familiar with this. Does remind me of the Supreme brand too. The shoes I think are quite heavily traded in the grey market/amongst collectors/resellers?

It’s also possible that you are not representative of the real world, or both are somewhat representative of the real world… or neither…

The knowledge and design that has gone into the most basic of real time clocks is is incomparable to a mechanical watch.

Have you heard of MEMS (micro-electromechanical systems)?

Look at these photographs and then tell me a Swiss watch is something to be impressed by.

https://www.eng.auburn.edu/~deanron/MEMSPhotos.pdf

Watches are valuable because of marketing. Is your sentimentality worth more because it's an expensive watch?

Maybe it’s because I’m flying without caffeine but I’m struggling to grok your point. Could you elaborate?

In response to your last paragraph, I gave that example as it seems obvious, to me at least, that a premium piece of jewellery is more likely to become an heirloom than something cheap.

It's jewelry. People have liked decorating their bodies since time immortal.

That just begs the question of why body decoration jewellery should be expensive and/or exclusive.

It's obvious. Also, there exists jewelry at every price range; not everything is exclusive.

I was just in Australia and went to an Emu park. On our way to the Emus the guide showed off a Bowerbird nest. The birds go around picking up shiny things like bits of glass or metal to decorate their nest to attract females. Rival birds will go stealing the best bits from other birds' nests causing fights. Heck, even if a human just rearranges some of their bits of flair in the pile, they'll notice and put it back in its place. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5vpeZWNYoWU

It's not even a human thing, this is a fundamental thing that animals like to do. Try to get the best, shiniest stuff to show off how much better you are than the other mate. We've just managed to use our intelligence to manipulate each other into influencing what is seen as more or less shiny.

The phrase is “since time immemorial” :)

Haha whoops, thanks! That was a silly one!

For me mechanical watches are about appreciating the precision, engineering and craftsmanship.

Sure you can get better precision with your phone or even any cheap watch with a quartz movement.

But it just seems amazing that something so small made just out of springs and levers, so small moving mechanical parts with no electronics, can keep time with a -2/+2 seconds accuracy in any wrist position (gravity) and any temperature (stuff shrinks and expands).

They are impressive technically. I love mechanical things.

I just wish they had more useful evolution in the last 50~100 years.

there absolutely has been innovation. check out the Seiko Spring Drive

> I just wish they had more useful evolution in the last 50~100 years.

Diminishing returns / asymptotic change.

I think the last major advancement was the coaxial escapement in the 1970s:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coaxial_escapement

and as per a sibling comment, the spring drive:

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HoEorK6elZM

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_Drive

They have! It's just hidden in your everyday world.

The incredible engines we have now, the robotics, self opening car doors, surgical robots, those heart valves that they can implant through an artery in your groin and expand in your heart, surgical navigation and spine/brain surgery, space travel....

You'd get much the same effect from carrying around a high-end tiny-size model railway engine. Try Z scale.

Totally.

They don't need to be expensive though. A Seiko 5 or a swatch mechanical automatic are 100 bucks and capture all this wonder also.

I had a Seiko SNK809 and I was quite impressived what they managed to manufacture for just about 100 euros.

I still don't understand... I guess its about flexing wealth or personal reward.

Sounds like you very much do understand.

As one comedian said, it’s because you can’t wear your Porsche on your wrist.

Rolex has always been desired as a status symbol, but at one point, it was desired both as a status symbol and a practical timekeeping device with great precision. A lot of people own a Rolex that has been handed down from generations past that will fall into that second bucket.

Nowadays, most people buying them are doing so strictly for the clout, especially in an era with cheap Seikos and ubiquitous phones. This is especially true of those who come from real wealth, where class signalling keeps you in certain circles. The rest of the sales are from people who desire that -- influencers, upper middle class, and so on. They have to jump through all the hoops just to be allowed to buy one.