I always considered it a political metaphor really.
> “As a science fiction writer who began as a fan, I do not use my fiction as a disguised way to criticize the reality of the present.”
Given that the author lives under an authoritarian government, I'm not sure if Liu's words should be taken at face value. But officially, a political interpretation of the book wouldn't be the authors intention.
Then it mixes that with the US - China relationship mirroring first contact with the aliens.
Not everything lines up 1 to 1, but all the themes are there. Amazing how many people take it at face value instead of looking for context.