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Comment by ejb999 | Hacker News Reader

>>I’m starting to treat general aviation as though it was 50 years ago: Very unsafe and expensive

50 years ago civilian aircraft deaths were, on average, 400% higher per year than now. You might want to rethink your comparison; it has never been safer to fly commercial airlines.

IIRC, less than 5 people have died in the USA in commercial airline crashes since 2010.

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I'd be willing to bet it was safer to fly right before the 737 MAX was introduced than right now.

Just a gut feeling.

Gut feelings are anxieties and biases.

...and in this case provably wrong - there have been (in the USA) just 2 deaths, in all of commercial aviation, since the 737-max was introduced in 2015 - thats 2 deaths in 9 years.

In the 9 years before (2014 back to 2006) that there were ~100 deaths, so 5000% higher deaths in the 9 years before the 737Max was introduced - and even that is very, very low historically.

(and for the record, not claiming the 737Max is directly responsible for those lower deaths, just that in general - and across the board - aviation has never been safer than it is now).

In 2015 and 2016 there were 0 deliveries of 737 Max's. They were also grounded for a good part of 2019 and you are only counting one country, so your statistics should be revised.

Covid makes for a very strange divot in all aviation statistics.

Maybe a better way to state my position is that, while it is currently the safest time to fly, I expect regression to the mean for airline safety over the next several decades. To such a degree that the increase in fatality risk is going to go up not down

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