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Comment by _xnmw | Hacker News Reader

China fact of the day: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/09/ch...

Notice how this hockey stick growth started shortly after February 2022, i.e. is a direct result of Western sanctions on Russia: https://x.com/brad_setser/status/1670842577862508556?s=46

edit: Chinese customs data shows during the first 11 months of 2023, China's vehicle shipments to Russia soared 545% from a year ago, to 840,000 units, making it China's fastest-growing market. New energy vehicles (NEVs), such as hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs), were also fueling the record production and exports”.

https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-market-evs-give-china-fuel...

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RU is ~5% of PRC car exports. IIRC West pulling out of RU removed 500k imports from market over multiple years. PRC exported 2M more cars in 23 than 22.

PRC Ro-Ro construction rampup preceded RU/UKR war by 5 years, and set to increase in next 5 years. RU too small of a market for this much auto sealift.

https://imgur.com/a/Ndhju6A

500k? “ Chinese customs data shows during the first 11 months of 2023, China's vehicle shipments to Russia soared 545% from a year ago, to 840,000 units, making it China's fastest-growing market. New energy vehicles (NEVs), such as hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs), were also fueling the record production and exports”.

https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-market-evs-give-china-fuel...

We're talking about NEVs/EVs, where hockey stick growth in that segment last few years isn't explained by just RU market. 840k includes traditional gas power autos, though no one has tracked down said "customs data" since the original claim (Bloomberg allegedly pulling quote from secretary general of China Passenger Car Association). Yes, PRC car exports surged in RU, but it's only part of growth, and part of planned growth. PRC auto ordering ~150-200 Ro-Ros because they expect more global exports, more than RU can absorb. 500k from from report of RU bank a week ago. Although that might have been sales. I'll try to dig it up.

Sorry but how would an increase in their car exports be related by the West sanctioning Russia? That makes zero sense.

It's simple - after sanctions, the Chinese got a much bigger pie of the Russian car market.

Not EV-specific, but:

> Chinese customs data shows during the first 11 months of 2023, China's vehicle shipments to Russia soared 545% from a year ago, to 840,000 units, making it China's fastest-growing market.

https://www.voanews.com/a/russian-market-evs-give-china-fuel...

I guess the idea is that If Russians cannot buy western cars, they’ll buy the new Ladas

I think the reason is not western sanctions, but rather decreased local demand in China. Patrick Boyle does a very good job at explaining it: https://youtu.be/rZgaj0jScOI

> Notice how this hockey stick growth started shortly after February 2022, i.e. is a direct result of Western sanctions on Russia: https://x.com/brad_setser/status/1670842577862508556?s=46

What? It starts after Q2 2020 in the chart you linked.

Second China fact of the day: nobody wants to sit in a Chinese car, not even the Chinese themselves.

For plenty of Europeans it is just fine

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/dacia-europe-sales-figures/

EDIT: Wrong address above. See https://www.acea.auto/fact/fact-sheet-eu-china-vehicle-trade...

How's that relevant? Or are you thinking Dacia is Chinese?

Dacia produces the EVs in China:

https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/renaults-made-china-d...

The brand itself as you say is not Chinese.

Correct. Here is a list of Chinese made cars in the EU market this year

    BMW 5-Series
    BMW XM
    BYD Atto 3
    BYD Dolphin
    BYD Han
    BYD Seal
    Fiat 600e
    Ford Bronco
    Honda CR-V
    Honda e:NY1
    Honda ZR-V
    Hyundai Ioniq 6
    Hyundai Kona
    Jeep Grand Cherokee
    Kia EV9
    Lexus RZ
    Lucid Air
    Mercedes-Benz E-Class
    Mercedes-EQ EQE SUV
    Nio ET7
    Peugeot E-3008/3008
    Renault Espace
    Renault Scenic
    Smart #1
    Toyota C-HR
    Toyota Prius 
    Volkswagen ID.7
    Volvo EX30

Avoiding Made in China is no longer popular idea, as we can see iPhone/Mac is a top brand. Avoiding Chinese brand is still a thing.

Sometimes avoidance is enforced, like what happened with Huawei. Also 'Made by China in <country>' is becoming a thing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Road_and_Bridge_Corporat...

Oops I pasted the address from the wrong window

https://www.acea.auto/fact/fact-sheet-eu-china-vehicle-trade...

That is an expired fact. Chinese are buying their own brands now, hence the tremendous growth.

You have your facts wrong. BYD was the top seller in China in 2023: https://carnewschina.com/2024/01/10/top-selling-car-brands-i...

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