I have absolutely no idea whether it'll flop, but this is interestingly different to what Meta is doing. The intense focus on AR rather than VR is legitimately a whole different experience.

This particular product this year cannot possibly be a mass market success (if only because it's apparently so supply-constrained that the speculation is they can make ~500k of them at most in 2024), but I could see it leading to a successful new product category after they can get the price down. Or being some silly boondoggle and fading away. Hard to say.

I thought their stupid watches and tablets would flop too yet here we are. I'd agree with you if it were made by any other company.

It almost certainly won't flop (but also won't be the Next Big Thing) but HN in general likes Apple more than Facebook.