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Comment by joshuamcginnis | Hacker News Reader

How does one reconcile the numerous tech layoffs[0] with the fact that "US Jobless Claims Plunge to 187,000, Lowest Since September 2022"[1]? Is non-tech sector hiring making up for the tech losses?

A chief US Economist is quoted:

I would not take this result literally, but, at a minimum, it seems clear that layoffs remain quite low and are not trending higher in a meaningful way, he wrote in a note.

From what I'm hearing, that sentiment is not in alignment with tech right now.

[0] https://layoffs.fyi/

[1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-jobless-claims-pl...

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At least in the US, the tech layoffs are highly concentrated in a particular part of the overall software industry. There are lots of companies (mostly ones who develop software for use in products, but the products aren't the software itself), and those are hiring as much as ever. Many struggle to fill positions, even.

The job market for software engineers seems strong to me overall. I think the devs who struggle are mostly the ones who are trying to get hired by larger established software companies such as, but not limited to, FAANG.

> I think the devs who struggle are mostly the ones who are trying to get hired by larger established software companies such as, but not limited to, FAANG.

I had plenty of trouble, and I mostly interviewed at exactly those kind of small companies. I landed at least the first interview for a third of what I sent out (better than most, from what I've seen here on HN), and after going through the entire process what I've heard back several times is that they think I'd be a great fit, but that they've got more good candidates than what they know what to do with and someone else was just a slightly better fit.

> I mostly interviewed at exactly those kind of small companies.

Not all of these sorts of companies are small. A lot of them are very large.

According to the U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics, there are approximately 1.8M software devs in the US. Layoffs.fyi shows about 8K layoffs this year, which is only about .4% of the total market. Crude calculation but telling.

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...

But that only spans 3 weeks. Going by layoffs.fyi, there were ~262.5k layoffs in 2023. That's more like 15% of devs laid off in the past year?

I get that plenty of US companies have also announced layoffs, but Bosch is not a US company and these layoffs are mostly in Germany, so what does one have to do with the other?

The BLS publishes the most current data industry-by-industry. Transportation Equipment Manufacturing, which Motor Vehicle parts companies like a Bosch are a sub-sector of, is here: https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag336.htm

It would be appear the unemployment rate of last month in that industry is 1.2%.

The data series app is a bit confusing, but if you enter the ID CEU3133600003 into https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet, you can get wage growth. The last four years seems to have gone from $33.40 per hour in January of 2020 to $39.56 in December 2023. That is up 18.4%. CPI is up 18.9% in that same period, so I guess that is basically a wash.

There's tons of lazy freeloaders, dead-end projects, products that need to be cancelled, toxic underperformers, etc. All of these lead to layoffs, because firing individual people is harder, and it's nicer to just let people go in annual waves.

I think there is a general vibes thing going on with the economy. Grocery bills and food (eating out) is still pricey which I think the population is extrapolating to the wider economy.

As for tech layoffs, it has to be said the 2022 hiring spree was not sustainable and some trimming was going to happen.

Also the recent layoffs have been very targeted, which probably would not have gotten the same attention if it wasn’t preceded by mass layoffs in 2023.

If the Fed Cuts arrive by May, it would end the doom cycle I hope.

Large sectors of the tech industry simply don't interact with the broader economy as a whole and was propped up by low interest rates and free VC money.

Once free money went away, everyone realized they actually need to make money and couldn't just sit on a army of developers not doing much to make money.

The economy as a whole is doing great according to pretty much every single measure.

Bosch does not really fit the “propped up by low interest rates and free VC money” theme.

It’s supposedly their autonomous driving related stuff

> The economy as a whole is doing great according to pretty much every single measure.

What about inflation? Office vacancies (and the looming debt crisis)? The national debt and interest? Stagnant wages? Housing affordability? Low birth rate? Just to name a few.

What about the homeless tent city right outside my window

Software devs are moving to other industries, which desperately need them.

What industries are we talking about?

Pretty much every industry needs developers. Grocery chains, banks, insurance companies, travel companies, airlines, defense, government, and so on. The pay is average and the work boring, but it’s plentiful.

The pay may be average, but the work doesn't have to be boring. Many of the big players in those industries do quite a bit of in house R&D, much of it every bit is interesting as what is happening at your average 'cool' software companies.

A clearing house for open positions in said industries would be fantastic.

How to gather, collate, and publish ?

Other than defense and government, most of these industries rely on Tata, Infosys, and their brethren for dev resources, which are mostly not US citizens. The in-house employees working in software are mostly project managers.

>> What industries are we talking about?

Retail discount stores. There's a desperate need for guys to stuff the shelves at Carrefour and Target.

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