Bing Gained Less Than 1% Market Share Since Adding Bing Chat
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idk why bing would become super popular all of a sudden when a good 90% of the web users are tech illiterate. In most people's head internet = google = chrome (and apple = safari because it just works)
Even in my tech literate circles the new flavor of AI is barely used
You formulated this as if you are sure of it and it is a fact. Could you link a source?
A friend who grew up in the worst rural schools, still lives in mobile home 2.5 hours from the nearest major city, driving 35 minutes through the country to their restaurant job in their grandmothers car, while taking care of the 3-year old kid they had when they were 18 while co-parenting with their divorced husband, while dealing with felony drug charges, and makes <$1,500/month has absolutely grokked the realities of ChatGPT and Midjourney without me mentioning anything about it to them. Instagram and TikTok expose people to these trends and mobile apps with free accounts open up immediate exploration to the masses.
Two friends who are 35 year old mostly-unemployed interior designers with an anthropology degree and no college degree are using it for drafting quotes.
Every lawyer, MBB consultant, and computer programmer I know either uses them heavily or are aware of colleagues who do.
I tutor a ton of students at a mid-tier state school, every single student I know in high school or university are using ChatGPT for their schoolwork.
And the 5-7 year olds I know have much worse typing skills than I had at that age, because they use Siri to do 90% of the things on their phone/tablets. It annoys the shit out of me because it looks so painful and the noise of them talking to their phone is obnoxious, but I can absolutely see the paradigm changing to where the youngest generation might not even use keyboards for their first choice as a computing interface. Powerful LLM's will greatly improve their interaction with Siri.
Sure but they have two phones, two laptops and a desktop, all of them running chrome with absolutely no reason to switch
Hence I'm not surprised adding a gimmick to bing didn't create any market share movement
100m active chatgpt users
3b chrome users
Do the maths, even pinterest and quora have 2-4 times more active users
Are pinterest, quora and google relying on the ads business model? Sure. OpenAI? Not so much. They have the users actually paying for the service.
Impressive or not I don't really care, all I'm saying is that even if they all left chrome to go to bing (and they didn't) it wouldn't have been much more than a 1% market share movement, which is what we've seen, hence there is no reason to be surprised.
100m people are paying for ChatGPT?
One commenter says everyone under 30 has a paid chatgpt account, yet chatgpt as a self reported user base of 185 millions, with only 100 millions unique active user per week, a far cry from every people under 30 with a spare 20$.
Even if every single one of these people installed bing on all their devices it wouldn't make a dent... chrome is used by more than 3b people.
I took a bet last year on this very forum about how chatgpt wouldn't become anywhere to what the HN prophets promised, I can take another bet for 2025 lmao
https://www.demandsage.com/chatgpt-statistics/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/543218/worldwide-interne...
I've heard the exact same things about smartphones in the past and now even my small village of 500 inhabitants is communicating with an app. It took a while though and suddenly, it was everywhere.
The previous generations of AI (translation, text & image recognition...) are already widespread and there's no reason to think it won't be the same here in the future.
I wouldn't use people who are 50+ as bellwethers to determine if something is a bubble vs. a new paradigm.
LLM's will absolutely be the next transformative "interface" that we use to interact with our computing devices. They're just too powerful to ignore. Even the current generation would be amazing for my MacBook. Recently I had an issue at work where I took a new job that uses MacBooks instead of Windows and couldn't get Slack notifications to pop up reliably. I swore all my notification settings were correct both in the app and in system settings. Turns out that my laptop had "Do Not Disturb" mode on due to seeing that my work phone had it on. If Siri had a robust LLM that could connect to system and app settings via API, a high-quality LLM like ChatGPT absolutely would have automatically figured it out and been able to both tell me why the notifications weren't popping up and ask me if I'd like it to go ahead and fix the settings for me.
LLM's will simplify complex computing systems for so many users. Yes, it will suck for tons of systems which implement it poorly or aren't conducive to speech/textual communication. But that's mostly a "skill-issue" for development teams implementing LLM's in apps/OS's, not a fundamental issue with the technology itself.
LLM's may be approaching a temporary bubble, but we won't be in that "bubble" until after Windows, Mac, and Android build them in as first-class interfaces for one option for primary interaction with your devices.
We already have touch GUI, mouse+keyboard GUI, and CLI interfaces, but will now get typing/speech-based LLM interfaces as a new paradigm.
Windows PCs don't come with Chrome or Firefox or Brave. Non-technical people use the default IE preset to Bing.
Windows makes it a pain for non-technical people to switch browsers or search engines.
Even on a slanted playing field, Bing relevance is so bad that even non-technical people manage to climb over the hurdles Microsoft places in front of them to escape their defaults.
Apple seems to be at 28% in the US (a few percent below HP and above Dell). I’d guess that if we removed corporate sales it would be considerably higher.
I‘m sorry, I was not aware there were arbitrary restraints on the subject. Given that no one specified any country before it became disadvantageous to Apple‘s market share. I am more than happy to discuss the USofA‘s side of things.
> I’d guess that if we removed corporate sales it would be considerably higher.
I highly doubt removing corporate sales would be an appreciable benefit to Apple. If anything it may be a detriment. Consumers in the US (and globally) cannot afford nor do they prefer Macbooks. Just because they are common in Silicon Valley does not mean they are common elsewhere.
Additionally, what is your data source? For US-focused statistics I have found this[0], which is quoting Statistica, which says Apple is a firm 3rd at 24%, 3% below Dell and a whopping 11% below HP. However it is from 2021, so more recent statistics are always a benefit.
[0] - https://techaeris.com/2021/11/08/the-most-popular-laptop-bra...
Additionally, do you have any counter evidence that asserts that Apple‘s Macbook is the most common consumer laptop?
Generative AI features can enhance search somewhat but aren’t a replacement. It’s not enough of a driver on its own to take market share from Google.
Maybe. But the opinion that Google is returning less relevant results is sooner or later going to go mainstream unless they start returning relevant results.
We're users too, but we notice things first. Just because the other users haven't noticed them doesn't mean that they won't in the near future.
Less relevant compared to what?
Consumers don’t see this as Google going downhill, they see it as the internet going downhill.
And I agree. It’s not as though I can jump over to DuckDuckGo or Bing and my search quality radically increases. Usually the opposite.
ChatGPT is helpful because it gives a very convincing feeling of being right. Whether or not it’s actually right is another question.
I acknowledge that it is a paid service, but you haven't tried Kagi yet you should give it a go! Default Search quality is very good, with no ads, tracking, or telemetry, and you can use Lenses and customizations to get even better results. You can even block certain sites from appearing in search (or simply de-rank them), which has dramatically reduced Pinterest and other SEO spam for me.
Compared to what the user wanted when they ran the search in the first place.
> It’s not as though I can jump over to DuckDuckGo or Bing and my search quality radically increases. Usually the opposite.
Of course it's a personal anecdote but as a DDG user since 2014 I routinely add !g to my search when the results don't satisfy me (which happen every once in a while, say once a month). This used to help, as most of the time Google had the answer I was looking for and could not find otherwise, but I don't think it happened even once over the past two years: Google is now at least as bad as DDG when it used to be strongly superior.
And I think they're right. More and more information on the internet is siloed into apps or behind paywalls. Knowledgeable people who used to write technical articles now make youtube videos (far less searchable). And the good stuff on the internet is diluted with low quality content written by someone who has to churn out an article every 15 minutes that is hard to filter out, even as a human. (I wasted 3 hours yesterday because a website gave me the wrong formula for something)
I am a DuckDuckGo user and I still use the !G flag when the results I’m getting aren’t good. Every time I go over to Google the results improve slightly.
ChatGPT is a game changer when it comes to getting a system to understand the underlying meaning of my query. I used to give the example of searching for Frank Lloyd Wright’s height - doing so on a search engine would give you results about the buildings themselves. You’d have to dig for the simple information of how tall the dude was.
Alas, Google actually fixed this and quickly displays the man’s actual height now.
Microsoft and Google are both going to integrate AI into their search engines and they’ll both improve drastically as a result. We’re only scratching the surface on the subject.
> Alas, Google actually fixed this and quickly displays the man’s actual height now.
That's really the only thing I want: A search engine that understands my queries. I don't want to chat with a computer.
Recipes are the classic example. Because Google upranks sites that people spend more time on after a click, most recipe searches yield pages that start with the history of flour milling and what milk is, before eventually getting to the desired recipe 5000 words later.
The phenomenon with recipes that you mention has nothing to do with Google: it has more to do with copyright. You can’t copyright a recipe, but you can copyright written commentary about cooking a recipe.
The recipe blogs also need enough content to place ads around.
So, the real optimum is ranking for one or more popular searches (regardless of relevance), looking vaguely interesting, and just confusing enough that it takes a couple of seconds to realize this isn't the page you wanted. Either that, or being exactly what someone wants for one of the popular searches.
Though, things may have changed, and my memory definitely has faded.
Also, plenty of SEOs may have misunderstood short clicks as a quality signal, so even if maximizing time on site doesn't help, I wouldn't be surprised if SEOs still recommend it.
Altavista et al got spammed into unusable mess and their use collapsed almost overnight when PageRank (temporarily as we've learned) managed to filter out the spam.
Of course nowadays Google's tentacles are so deeply everywhere that they will churn on with subpar technology just like e.g. Oracle, SAP, IBM, Microsoft etc etc. The oligopoly is probably here to stay.
It was more temporary (shorter time period) than you probably realize.
I was a developer on the Google web indexing system. PageRank was only one of many signals that went into ranking, and PageRank was gamed by link farms pretty early. There's a whole team dedicated to fighting webspam, and their spam signals are some of the other inputs to the scorer.
By Google's golden years, there was a whole lot of secret sauce going into fighting webspam, and PageRank had been pretty thoroughly gamed.
PageRank was important, but I think its importance is generally over-estimated.
Also, about 15 years ago, Google was testing another link-graph-based metric that was more efficient to calculate and less susceptible to linkfarms. I imagine PageRank (as described in the patent/Wikipedia) has been replaced, though perhaps the new algorithm is still referred to as PageRank. (IIRC, the proposed replacement was being called PageRankNG while in testing.)
An artist I follow on Youtube put out this (comical) video regarding it - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrFv1O4dbqY
Tech people will change browsers, search engines, and SaaS tools without much thought. The average person learns something and sticks with it for a very long time. Bing is playing a long game.
There are a lot of examples of things people in tech bubbles think that have little relevance in the real world: That Google can’t be trusted, that everyone wants laptops with upgradable RAM and phones with swappable batteries, that desktop websites should take priority over mobile, that offline apps are preferred over cloud apps. Spend some time in product management and you realize that tech people’s demands are unique.
Even the claimed demands of tech bubble people often fail to materialize into sales. Just look at all the demand for mini iPhones in tech bubbles compared to how little they actually sold.
Non tech savvy people don't even realize they are using Chrome in android or Safari on an iphone. They will never change they just use the default search bar that is on their device.
However, I don't understand how statcounter got the data about usage it the first place. Their methodology might be flawed.
They can answer a lot of questions in a lot of ways that Google just cannot.
Their position is entrenched enough that they'd be able to exist just on brand fumes for a good number of years yet but once the rot sets in there's no coming back.
I guess it can be interesting if you're after some Wikipedia-like information, but in those cases I just go to Wikipedia or similar.
Clearly I lack imagination, so, how to use this in a useful way?
I got tons of what looked like knock offs and spam, with big bright video previews and no official looking site.
I switched to Google and found the official site immediately and realised it's a Roblox game, so the Bing results weren't wrong at all but they sure looked wrong. There's just something about Bing that looks bad, I don't know what it is.
Same for me on most searches. Bing is far too cluttered and busy, all over the place, making your eyes constantly hunt to find what you're looking for.
Microsoft, if you're reading this, simpler is almost always better, no need to make the results page look like an Arch user's terminal session.
- Im sure there’s talented professional behind anything that is good and the accident is their decisions surviving the corporate gauntlet of enshitification or expnanding the scope of the project such that it becomes an unpleasant mess, probably obnoxious too.
They alwawys lacked an authoritarian UX and design chief, like their own Steve Jobs and Johnny Ive who, for better or worse, would be the only one with the final verdict on what the corporate design of all products should look like and what is allowed to ship.
Microsoft is too fragmented, everyone of its products is basically a totally separate company with its own design language.
It searches the web and writes you a cited essay based on the content of the search results. I read the essay it provides to determine which links to follow instead of scrolling a page of links. I’ve found it really useful.
Good for investigating generalities more than specifics, and there is a slight learning curve. It likes short direct questions.
e. Punctuation
I guess that's the main issue then for me. I'm seldom after generalities, and very often after specifics.
Nope Perplexity gave me a totally wrong answer.
I cannot tell you how upsetting a user experience this was to me. Thinking about canceling my Pro sub off of one wrong answer. Can’t trust it.
I have similar experience with ChatGPT. Sometimes I'm hesitating to use it because I feel that it is better to not get information then get information which may or may not be true.
Maybe not having tons of distractions in the form of advertisements on the search homepage allows people to achieve more.
That event caused me to take another look at Edge, and I now prefer it to Chrome and use it as my daily driver at work. I am split between Edge and Brave at home.
Honestly, Microsoft has done a good job with a browser (finally). It only took them 25 years.
Just uses duckduckgo for search, extracts text from top 8 results, shoves into gpt-3.
(I think I got a massive cost reduction by filtering paragraphs with embedding API, but that's just an optimization.)
Phind is better than what I built, though. I don't actually use it that much (I'm not sure why—habit? Impatience?), but every time I do I'm surprised with the accuracy.
I think a big part of it is which pages to select for sources. Google Bard failed hard here in my testing, gave nonsense answers because its sources were AI generated SEO spam!
It seems that the main problem right now is that they only look at the first few results. Basically they all do this:
1. Ask model for a search query.
2. Run search and feed the results into the model.
3. Ask model for an answer.
The problem is that for very specific questions the search results won't contain the required information. So it has to say something irrelevant or hallucinate. Especially for negative queries like "a foo library that doesn't depend on std" or similar it really struggles because it can't effectively filter out libraries that fail the requirements and can't keep searching until it finds one.
Basically they can be fast if a decent query can have the answer within the first page of results. But fail otherwise. In many cases you are better off just reading through search results on your own.
I'm using Google less and less, but not using Bing. It is more like Google is not as useful anymore.
So would like to see a trend of usage rates, to see if Bing market share didn't go up much, did overall Google usage go down?
Market share might have only gone up 1%, but did the overall market shrink.
Like hyping how your market share went UP. But you lost customers, sales were actually DOWN. Just the other guy lost more. So your market share went up.
I've been in companies that had bad sales, and they super hyped how market share had gone up like we were winning. But the entire market was shrinking enough that total sales had gone down.
The model is too reliant on search results which are often wrong, but it treats them like gospel.
To add to that since it's an analytics plugin, it could also affect how those pages are ranked in Google and Bing in not so subtle ways.
All in all, that feels like very little facts to come up with any opinion on the subject matter.
[0] https://gs.statcounter.com/faq#methodology
> Is bing chat included in search engine share?
> We have no way of measuring the number of queries performed in bing chat. However, we also don't measure the number of queries to regular search engines like bing or google either. Instead we track search engine referrals.
This will eventually lead to Google downfall, as it may feel overconfident. This may result someday in a sudden shift, change at search.
I do not think that search engines have any future. It will be replaced by bots period. It would be dumb for Google to invest any money in normal search.
Normies will not want to google anything, or browse links, if computer will be able "to tell", or produce answer instead of links. No further search is required. Search is already dead.
In terms of Bing Chat, easily the biggest appeal to me is it's based on GPT-4 and includes features for creative/professional writing. I think that alone is the biggest reason to use it over chatGPT 3.5.
I think the Bing Chat answers have gotten too concise to be useful for anything technical. It's good for quick retrieval of simple things, but I have abandoned it and ChatGPT for phind.com, at least for now.
Ask me in 3 months, I may have another system I favor. This space is evolving rapidly.
It's still early days so finding the best solution with ai is still a WIP, since dalle3 came out I've used Bing chat way more.
image creator gives you 15 images per day, Bing chat does a better job with images by reiterated prompts with adjustments and gives near unlimited uses if using the chat interface.
In those first few weeks users reported spending hours engaged with the product and that they had some of the most interesting conversations in their life.
The interest and engagement quickly died down as the 'errant' human-like behavior was tampered down.
I'm still using Search engines (Brave most of the time and google when I can't find what I'm looking for), tech forums, StackOverflow (Still a tech gold mine), etc... and lastly chatgpt if I have time to write a really good prompt.
The bubble is still there, few are paying attention outside it, let alone using it to be "rich". Heck, Crypto Bros are now selling courses on how to monetize chatGPT, and what's worse, people are buying it! It's the same cycle over and over again.
Yes, LLMs brought decades of R&D to the forefront of society and put that piece of tech on people's hands yet that doesn't mean everyone will adopt it just because. Our phones are engineering marvels yet we use them for mundane things most of the time.
Have you tried co-pilot? It is the worst. My 3 year old gives more coherent answers and paints better images.
it is "less than 1%"
It's a brand issue, people doesn't associate Microsoft with great products, you see it with their gaming division as well, despite insane marketing, they fail to match Sony both in HW and services (Sony has like 3x more, both, console sales and service subscribers than MS)
We need less of both, Google and Microsoft both want to be in a monopoly position, which is bad
X360: 84m PS3 87m
X1: 58m PS4:117m
Xbox (X/S): 25m PS5: 50m (ongoing)
Stats and numbers doesn't lie, people didn't stick with what Microsoft had to offer, not good enough