Why new hires often get paid more than existing employees
bloomberry.com
bloomberry.com
I also wonder how these systems work.
Taleo, Lever, Workday, Google Hire, etc.
One of the commitments was that they would get a hike when they joined up to match industry standards. Never happened.
When challenged by engineering management HR gave a hike of Rs 100/- a year.
About $3 at that time.
If I was the hiring manager, I would tell HR to pound sand.
HR works for the company (aka the owners/senior execs), not a random line manager.
If they like what the line manager is doing, then that’s cool.
If they don’t, unless execs or ownership cares, they’ll happily set said line manager on fire for their amusement just as easily as a random employee.
And since line managers need HR’s co-operation to hire/fire in most places, they’ve got to manage that relationship very carefully or be really screwed.
The more professional and actually strong/competent they are, the more measured and appropriate that example can be.
If they’re actually weak or incompetent, expect to be stabbed in the back instead of the front, and for it to be insane and disproportionate instead of rational and measured.
And do what? The manager can't hire anyone if HR doesn't approve and process the hire.
HR has all the power on this. Many times I've seen the eng organization all aligned to hire someone but if HR says no, it's no.
The head of HR usually reports to the CEO, so unless it's a position high enough that the CEO is personally involved in the hiring process and can override HR, there's nothing you can do.
HR controls for example the background checks for new offers, and if those don't satisfy HR there will not be an offer (also, HR generates offer letters). No amount of complaining from anyone short of the CEO will override this.
I don't doubt that these places exist, where HR inserts themselves and becomes part of the hiring process--just never saw one myself.
Edit: I guess I should say this was not part of a corporate, "Interview for your job after a layoff" kind of deal. Just seeing a posting on an internal job board, and semi-privately interviewing with that line manager. An internal job hop that can happen for any number of reasons.
The answer is in the question :-)
How would a fool react when their foolishness is thrown publicly in their face?
I went back for a few months and quit again, only to get headhunted by one of their direct competitors. I went through the motions but they were disorganized enough I blew them off. Turns out I dodged a bullet as they were acquired by megacorp a few weeks later.
Did he omit his current role from his resume? How did he not disclose where he was currently working?
I know every company will say this, but every single one I've run across has someone who can sign off on something and change it.
"Everyone starts with 2 weeks of PTO per year." -- I've started with 3 or 4, amazingly -- actually entered into the systems, not an informal agreement to allow me to take it. I've found PTO to be the easiest thing to negotiate at the end of the hiring process for a senior+ position.
"Band 6 has a maximum salary of xxxx" -- I've been hired above that.
And these are big companies with formal rules. They all have formal rules for breaking their formal rules, and the person telling you it's a firm rule knows it.
All of this lends itself to new hires getting paid more, of course.
This was a very big, very formal company. All rules are guidelines if you know how to request exceptions.
- What's the average for this role?
Explanation: Odds are, they've only given ranges up until now. This helps lock them down to a smaller range and should be closer to what the actual team looks like.
- How do I compare to the average candidate?
Explanation: If you're below average, they wouldn't be talking with you. Therefore, you are likely above average and now have a new floor instead of the generic range. Further, now they're likely going to describe what unique aspects you bring to the table and why you fit the role.
No matter how many times you say "I'm great for this role!" it's 100x more powerful for THEM to say "you're great for the role because of A, B, and C!"
And hopefully now you fit A, B, and C into your talking points and questions to the team, hiring manager, etc.
My answers to assessments are the same
I’ve not been able to garner that respect with my actual background, look, and same level of skill
thinking about putting a filter on my webcam and just rolling with it, inventing this fictional person
Usually works - I think it's because they're setting an upper bound so it forces them to go easy on the lowballing.
As an IC, it’s hard to sympathize with this argument. This is corporate bureaucracy that a company *chose* to create. How they got here is a matter of debate, but this doesn’t feel like a good justification for not rewarding loyal, high level performers.
This argument always stuck me as a weak appeal to (an ambiguous) authority.
It is generally easier to get a raise than to get promoted. It is generally easier to get a new job than to get a raise.
On balance, if you want to maximise earnings as an IC, you are gonna change jobs more often than you get an above-inflation raise.
The whole counteroffer thing is politically uncomfortable. Even if successful, it means one’s resume will be more monochromatic than if they had left!
If one interviews well and gets a juicy offer, the company can simply “make it back” through lower raises, and HR gets a pat on the back for leveling compensation.
I’ve also noticed that the nature of work stagnates after about 5yrs. Sure, there are little learnings after that, but it’s too easy to fall into a “sustaining” role with very little hope of real growth.
Yep, happened to me and now I'm fucked.
Employers of course have the power to change this. Any individual employer even, it's not a Nash equilibrium. If they wanted to, they would. They don't because they don't care. You don't owe your employer any more respect than they show you, which is generally close to "none".
Job hoping is not a big deal in markets that support it, it isn't always like Silicon Valley everywhere.
plus I'm tired of the new guy uselessness, and having to learn and navigate around new clusterfucks -- at least at the last gig you knew where those clusterf's were
OK so tie it to the market average instead?
> our current team led to us being in a stagnant market position: So we need someone new
The diagnosis here is ego. The thought doesn't even cross their mind that the leadership might be the actual reason, rather than the ICs who really have very little agency.
My company does do market adjustments. We're were still hiring in people for more money than existing people were making. Mostly because the average hadn't shifted much since the new salaries only affected a small population. The new people we were higher were above the average they were using. Eventually they did do some adjustments for the lowest employees, but it was a bit lackluster.
> The diagnosis here is ego. The thought doesn't even cross their mind that the leadership might be the actual reason, rather than the ICs who really have very little agency.
Do we work for the same company?
At our company we implement annual ‘performance reviews’, which are really 1-1 career path discussions where we try to align a person’s desired career trajectory along company objectives. I’ve found this to be a useful exercise in gaining a better understanding of where a person is in their life and career, especially with those who don’t like to volunteer information. This is also a good venue to keep salaries up with market wages.
HR normally will say no, then you find another job and tell your manager that you are going to resign, manager talks to HR and HR gives you a small bump. Then you have to decide whether you stay or leave.
* New hires get paid more because they are worth more to the employer. Point blank. You don't have to pay existing employees more to keep them working there. "A bird in hand is worth two in the bush" was meant to be a parable but it turns out to be rather more literal
* Never accept the counter-offer. If you have gone as far as interviewing outside, you are already checked out, and you are already branded as disloyal. It's time to make your exit! If you ask for a counter-offer, it should be a move to squeeze more out of your offers, not a real attempt to "stay" where you have already decided to leave
* Arguing about a raise is almost always a waste of time. If you are not happy with your 3% COLA, will 5% really mollify you? LOOK FOR NEW WORK
And if you say 'well if you were valuable you shouldn't have had to', you're absolutely right, but it's the way things work. My first manager told me I was underpaid, that he couldn't fix it unless I had another offer in hand as he was capped by the company at 4% raises. So I did, and he did. And I did it 4 more times, in total 4xing my pay.
I did leave eventually, but that had nothing to do with pay.
Most of the jobs I had didn't even have a COLA. So yes 5% would be fine.
> New hires get paid more because they are worth more to the employer
Anyone who manages a company should put their money where their mouth is and fire their whole team, and hire a new one. Those new hires are worth far more than the existing team was. Except, we all know it's BS, and existing employees are what keep a company in existence.
They pay existing employees less, and new employees, more. If a whole team quits, a replacement will be more expensive. That's the state of the game!
I quit because I felt I constricted in my role. I was given the option of switching to a different role within the company and went on to have the most professionally rewarding and satisfying years of my career.
Even when you're the product (e.g., you're employed by a contracting company) and the demand in your industry is far greater than the supply?
To hire a new employee at market rate, you have to give your team of lets say 10 employees that much money, which is euqivalent to hiring another 2 people for 'nothing'.
This can then immediately poison the water source so to speak for the rest of the team which now realises how they are getting screwed over and/or start realising the nature of the relationship between them and the employer.
They then start accepting offers elsewhere, and one by one the team is no more, with no one available to take care of the product. This in the end has a huge financial impact on the company, which is much greater than the salary they saved by not adjusting those ten employees.
I have experienced two situations like this in my career. The whole team, or close to it, was wiped out with no one knowing how to take care of the software product (in one case the team had been developing and supporting 10x mobile apps). A month after leaving, as I was the last to go, I was contacted by my former manager and asked if I would be willing to come help them out with the mobile product that I had been the lead on, since the new fresh out of college graduates they had replaced us with were having issues.
I charged them a fine hourly amount for a minimum of one day, came in and fixed the issue within 20 minute.
Those fresh grads didn't know the products, the codebase, the tooling nor the space that the products were in. And within two years, all of them had jumped ship for new employment.
But it's even worse than losing the salary though, because you can often find some money somewhere to replace that cost. You CANNOT do that with time, ever.
This is normally what HR does. I'm surprised that they didn't do the same to you. They probably needed you more than the other person, or even with a 30% raise you were still cheaper than a new hire.
A company loses far more, far more if an existing employee quits, versus losing a potential new hire.
This is just one of the illogical things about life. Either the company is illogical, or employee behavior is illogical in that the threat of quitting with a better bargaining chip is just lower.
On an individual level maybe. But it doesn't benefit the company for news to spread that they'll bump your pay a significant amount if you threaten to quit. If the company has 100 employees working for a salary that is 80% of their fair market value, it's worth losing one of those employees to keep the discount on the other 99.
Additionally in the current market for the past year, software engineers aren't getting hired as fast anymore. The crazy hiring has slowed down and many companies are actually offering lower salaries. It's much harder to land a job.
A union can limit their involvement to strictly salary negotiations if it's members choose to do so.
I think in theory people can band together and collectively negotiate without actually forming a legal union.
The framework to band together and collectively negotiate is literally called forming a union.
You don’t have to collect dues if you don’t want/need to, nor do you need a bureaucracy.
Eventually groups of collective negotiators (unions) end up in situations requiring resources, which require money. I’m talking about simple lawyer consults or if you wanted to buy research on current market pay.
This isn't some cooking eggs and not calling it frying. This is more you not understanding. Failure to comprehend and being mean is what's going on with you. The term is ass hole. Because let's face it, there's no failure to comprehend here, just deliberate pedantism and mischaracterization.
https://www.nlrb.gov/about-nlrb/rights-we-protect/the-law/em...
It is this legal definition of a union that has the ability to characterize your membership in the legal union as having paid union dues.
This legal formation of a union which is required to even sue the company isn't required for employees to act collectively.
But you know this. It's obvious. Stop being deliberately pedantic. Just move on man.
Unions are for people without options.
Unions exist so that the people with options can help the people without options.
Unions are meant to be a tool to increase your power by solving a coordination problem between employees, and there are many examples of them working well for that purpose.
It’s not a bad idea to do a couple interviews before your annual review comes up, even if you don’t have to say in quite so clear terms that you are ready to jump ship. Confidence helps a lot.
Unless (even if?) the counter-offer is significantly higher, I'd say just take the competing offer. Chances are HR will put a target on your back for being "disloyal".
I was already in the mindset that the bridge had been burnt—by them, not me. Between the stress of quitting, the relief of having another job lined up, and now this bizarre empty threat to be blackballed from a place I’d never want to work for again…I just had to laugh.
Every manager knows which team members are key to the team's performance. They have to get raises or bonuses to match.
The company can use that time to figure out what that person does and make sure when they leave it's not as painful and abrupt.
So at least for me it didn't pan out terribly though there was some luck involved.
I've done so twice and stayed for years afterward in both cases, but this may just be unique to how defense contracting works.
I think there's a way to pull it off that doesn't leave anyone feeling taken advantage of or bushwhacked. It probably starts by talking at your annual review about how you're concerned the market rate for your position is higher than what you earn. Then go get an offer and say "gee boss I really love working for this company but X% is a lot of money to leave on the table, is there anything you can do to close this gap".
They need to be convinced that there's an urgent and valid reason to pay you more, but they also need to be convinced that the juice is worth the squeeze. If they think you're just going to go pull the same stunt again in 6 months, or if they think that you're already low morale, they will just call it attrition.
Another strategy, if you can pull it off, is to have a different kind of credible threat. Maybe you know that you're a high performer and/or have a good professional network and would have no trouble finding a new job. Maybe you have 6 months of savings set aside specifically so you can quit a job if needed. Maybe your spouse also earns good money (or maybe your spouse is the high earner) and you live far enough below your means that you can float for a while with half income.
You don't necessarily need to show firm evidence that these things exist, you just need to make it clear that keeping your salary in line with the market is necessary to keep you from leaving. The trick is that you have to actually leave if it doesn't go your way, otherwise you'll have no credible threat and they won't take you seriously the next time.
A competing offer is like going to a mattress store and asking them to price match. A purchase is a one-time relationship, but employment is onging. It's not really the same thing.
It's much harder to follow the chain from Employee: "I'm resigning and my last day will be Y." Exit interview: "Reason for leaving?" "Professional growth." "OK, glad it wasn't pay."
That combination leads employers to believe that "compensation is obviously important, but isn't the reason that most of our employees leave". People who are leaving aren't going to tell you the entire, crystal-clear truth because there's usually nothing in it for them. Maybe if they really like their co-workers and think there's a tiny chance you'll adjust will they tell you that they're leaving over comp.
If every employee was highly mobile, aware of their own value and motivated to be always on the hunt for new opportunities, then yes, companies would need to have some system for making sure new starter salaries were in line with existing employees.
But they are not. Bob is highly introverted and it took him years to make the workplace bonds he now has with his colleagues. He doesn't want to start over. At Carols previous startup, the CEO turned out to be a psychopath. She values the stable leadership at this company. Tim is an idealistic junior. He know his friends earn more but he's drunk the Koolaid and he believes in the company's mission. And Mary likes this company because it means her family can live next to her parents.
For any number of reasons, it's just not necessary for the company to pay market rate to every existing employee. Inevitably some will leave to get higher pay - they will be balanced out by new people coming in, also at market rate.
Increase salary too quickly and you leave money on the table by wasting raises on employees who would stay for less
Increase salary too slowly and you cripple your business with unsustainable turnover
This is simply a disagreement about where the “sweetspot” lies that generates the most profit for the company.
The general opinion on reddit / hacker news is that big companies choose a balance that doesn’t reward employees enough. But that’s not surprising because users on these platforms are mostly employees.
A new hire will obviously seek the market average, so there is not much you can do about that. However, existing employees will not renegotiate their salaries every month, so the company will end up paying less than the market average per person. If the company raises everyone's salaries to align with the market average, they will be paying substantially more.
The reason is that this is an accident of corporate bureaucracy?
Or is the root reason that companies consciously believe they save money if they cap raises low, regardless of the degree to which this causes regretted attrition?
> regretted
It's not regretted if 1) employees are considered fungible, and/or 2) it's expected and planned for. One of both of those things tends to apply in most workplaces.
Corporations will always mark an employee simply as an entry on their ledger. When the time comes to get new hires on similar work level, they know they need to up their game in terms of how much they can generously pay while still maintaining the bottom line of the organization.
At another we had somebody from the helpdesk join our team, he rapidly skilled up but the company had a rule that max pay-rise was 20% annually and he was on half what everyone else was on. Problem was escalated until an exception was approved by senior manager and he got a big 1-off payrise.
If they are hiring that means they need that person. They also have to get them over the bump of joining. Old employees they just have to pay enough to stay. Staying involves doing nothing, switching jobs involves making decisions and taking risks. It always costs more to change something then it does to let it ride on inertia.
The only way you can get a sense of how the world truly works outside your company is by going outside your company
the truly confident teams are the ones who know you'll come back at the end of your https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rumspringa , and throw you a party on your way out
1) An intern was paid 25% more than me. The disparity was even greater, since he was paid on a hourly basis, and I was salaried, working 60 hr+ weeks. It was baffling, the intern wasn't a family relation, and had no special skills. In fact, I had to onboard him. But, for whatever reason, he got an absurdly high wage. I suppose the hiring manager (who later went on to be an early Microsoft VP) wanted to be magnanimous and help a college student, but why not also be magnanimous with your regular employees who are busting their butts?
2) Starting salaries for new grads were increasing faster than salaries for existing employees, and salaries for existing employees weren't adjusted accordingly. Existing employees got stock options on more favorable terms though (having started earlier).
When finding talent in a competitive market, particularly if a company find themselves desperate they often find they need to go above market averages in order to attain people.
It's not that they don't value you, it's simply the entry cost the company has found themselves needing to pay at that point in time.
If it an unfortunate reality for those already at the company, that those hired years after you may have found the position during a competitive period in the market, mixed with greater needs of the company.
Having said that, in my experience when REM has been subpar the company has performed a REM review and increased salaries. Occurred once or twice in nearly a decade.
The situation is essentially this: someone from the market just got a better deal. Maybe because of the current market situation, maybe because they are just good negotiator. How on Earth does it entitle everyone else to the pay raise? And if you think so, do you also think that when the next hire accepts an offer with less comp - everyone else should have a pay cut too?
> someone who had the same job title and the same experience
There's no such thing as the same experience. Every human being is unique, and every experience is unique too.
Anyway, getting offended without even talking to your manager, let alone just plain asking for the raise, is sooo counterproductive.
And make sure to tell him that your know the market rate. TBH managers also some time are not aware of the market rate. They usually compare your pay with theirs when they were at your stage.
Bob gets paid $40k more because Bob has a personality they like and want to groom him for leadership.
Ben doesn’t socialize and his ego is often confrontational in meetings. Ben is hurt because he’s not getting paid the same as Bob.
It’s sometimes that simple. If you want top pay, negotiate it and deliver that value. Life isn’t fair, salaries are a range, and if you decide to slack off because you aren’t getting “paid what you’re worth” - you’ll be the first one cut.
That said, new talent comes with new ideas - sometimes that’s worth more. Instead of being hurt by someone making more than you in the same position - use it as fuel to go better yourself.
If you still feel like you deserve Bob pay, talk to your manager about it. Tell them how it makes you feel without getting overly emotional about it. Let them know, that you know, and most good managers will do whatever they can to make it right by you.
Once you don't have to worry about the "what ifs," negotiation is a cinch.
Reading between the lines, the ultimate reason seems to be something like “because they can.”
Bloomberg used to be a decent media outlet, but maybe that's chsnged. This feels like an AI-generated article (probably with some light editing).
Finally, if it was actually written by a human, way to stem future job prospects. Calling a prior company out by name and making the two salaries easy to figure out ($40k more == 40% more == $100k for the author and $140k for the coworker) are not bright moves for a burgeoning writer.
This happend to me too, I just noticed it because the site has a Wordpress favicon. Its not Bloomberg but Bloomberry - don't know if this is intentional but nice hijack
Reason 5 is where we start being intellectually honest with ourselves: "Retaining employees is a problem very few want to solve because of inertia" … tough cookies? This is literally the job of management, and that it's become so acceptable in the corporate world for management to just abdicate it is infuriating. Yet ICs are supposed to Get Stuff Done, but that's real hard to do when products are ghost-towns because the people who built it have just moved on, because they couldn't get a raise.
Why does management think they can build literally anything while effectively firing via attrition their best people?
This has personally been the hardest part of attempting to build a career. Bloomberg doesn't get it. My father's generation got rewarded for the work they put into a job. I should ask him sometime what he thinks a "decent", nominal %'age for a raise is. But I have no doubt that he thinks it is a positive number, whereas employers appear to have different ideas.
¹in quotes because I've seen exactly 2 companies do this sort of training; the rest it was "you just try to make do on your own". One no longer does the training, and IMO, is suffering because of it, and one is a FAANG.
As a general thing, someone meeting expectations and performing their current role should expect a nominal raise each year. Cost-of-living sort of thing.
When you hire someone new from the market, you need to figure out the market price and pay that.
There's no particular reason these two should be in lockstep besides, as the author mentions, a vague sense of inequity.
If someone leaving represents a substantial risk, then a) that role should be derisked, and b) that individual should be recognized via whatever process the company has (leveling, etc) to keep them on board.
Businesses do inequitable-by-definition things all the time. It's part of their DNA. They make measured trades, and often those trades involve mistreating humans, betting that the practical consequences of that will be worth whatever the upside of the trade is. That's why we have so many laws and organizations protecting people from businesses.
I suspect that losing a high percentage of your best employees all at once because you are paying them quite a bit less than what you'd pay a worse replacement is a bad thing you want to avoid.
> should expect
Should why, though? You didn't explain why they should have this expectation, rather than any other.
> There's no particular reason these two should be in lockstep
There is a pressure to keep these in lock-step: if you are paying lower than market rate, your employees have an incentive to go sell their labor elsewhere for more; if you are paying higher than market rate, you have an incentive to cut their pay (if you lose them over this, you can still replace them for less money). There are many reasons why such a basic price theory analysis is so incomplete as to give the wrong conclusion, but it's a real reason these things would be in lockstep that requires explanation why as to how it is inapplicable or incomplete.
Because if we agree that I pay you $X/yr, that's just a placeholder for a certain amount of value per year. As inflation rises, the nominal salary I pay has to increase to maintain that value. A CoL raise handles that.
> There is a pressure to keep these in lock-step: if you are paying ...
This is all theoretically true, but just not how it works in practice. See: this post and all the comments lamenting it.
So, an explanation would describe why it works the way it does in practice. Lots of people have tried in this comment section and article to provide such explanations.
I don't think what you're doing provides a "why", really -- a good explanation is hard to vary and still explain things and can explain more than just the phenomenon in question. If the situation were different, if salaries tended to follow a market index or the size of the working population or whatever, I could provide a statement of the same form as yours instead.
> placeholder for a certain amount of value per year. As inflation rises, the nominal salary I pay has to increase to maintain that value
I'm not sure I quite understand what you mean by value here, exactly. Value to the employer? That doesn't track the CPI. I think you must mean value to the employee, which is what I think is not explained by your explanation, as price isn't derived from value to the producer that way. Think about it in the market for apples rather than the market for labor, for example. Obviously it does work different in the labor market, but you have to say what the relevant differences between the market for apples and for labor are to explain things.
I disagree.
An employer has a contract (whether literal or not) with an employee to pay a certain amount. They continue to do that, along with nominal raises. This is reasonable.
If they want to hire someone new, that new person will generally demand the market rate, since they can get it elsewhere. This is also reasonable.
The only thing that bothers people is that both of these things occur at the same time.
> I'm not sure I quite understand what you mean by value here, exactly. Value to the employer? That doesn't track the CPI. I think you must mean value to the employee
I mean the value to the employee. Maybe getting slightly too wonky here, but to elaborate: if I hire you, I may offer you a certain amount of US dollars per year. You don't actually care about the dollars. You can't eat them, you can't live inside the bits of paper. You and I only care about them as a store of value that can be conveniently exchanged: a currency. What I'm actually paying you is some amount of value each year.
This is imperfect as a result of inflation. If I pay you the same amount of dollars per year, the value that I'm giving you goes down. So there is some sort of annual raise, generally referred to as a cost of living adjustment, that is supposed to account for that.
In the past couple of years, it hasn't at a lot of places. This is effectively a pay decrease, and is very uncool. Historically, a 2-3% CoL raise per year _would_ match inflation.
I'm pretty sure you know all that, but it leads into:
> Think about it in the market for apples rather than the market for labor, for example. Obviously it does work different in the labor market, but you have to say what the relevant differences between the market for apples and for labor are to explain things.
I don't think I can give a meaningful analogy here. Aside from the shelf life issue, participants in the labor market have agency, whereas an apple doesn't. But, in an attempt to work through it:
If I want to go to the labor or super market to get a new employee or apple, I have to pay the price they are asking. If I don't, I don't get it.
If I already have an employee or an apple, I don't need to pay the market rate. I already have it. I am no longer participating in the market, so the prices there are irrelevant to me.
This is where the major difference manifests: an apple in my cupboard is not going to leave because someone else will pay more for it. An employee might. Simply because I'm not in the market doesn't mean they aren't.
The odds of them leaving, compared to the cost of responding to market fluctuations in their favor only, is generally going to be net negative. If it was not net negative, this wouldn't be a topic of discussion.
In the event that I _know_ it would be painful for a particular employee to leave, most companies have a process for recognizing that and giving an outsized raise, one that meets or exceeds the current market. 'Retention risk', 'Exceeds Goals', giving a promotion or level increase, etc.
All that being said: this is strictly from an econ point of view. I very much don't like thinking of my reports this way, and I don't do it in practice. But when I'm talking with HR and upper execs, this is how they understand it.
In fact, when companies are incredibly successful based on early 10x employees, you're almost guaranteed to see the hiring bar go down over time.
All FAANG and other smart companies hire at better than 50% at the role/level in order to constantly evolve.
To actually do this, you need an objective measure that is repeatable over many different kinds of products, domains and people and they is a very hard problem no one has cracked. Career ladders and some calibrations help to do this but it'd never perfect and people slip through the cracks.
If you're at a big company, you've seen people get a rating that seemed misaligned to their work because an arbitrary curve is enforced or a project has high visibility by sheet luck because an exec was adamant that the project be on the roadmap.
Do you mean that they keep hiring people better than 50% of the current people in that role/level?
That's not my impression from Big Tech. All the chatter I hear is that, until very recently, they kept hiring more and more people, and over time have been getting lower capability, and more towards worker grunt drones.
(Though I've often heard that the better people already at the company couldn't pass or do as well at the Leetcode-like interview metrics performance as the current candidates often do, because they have huge masses of people training for the metrics specifically.)
Have I heard wrong, or do I misunderstand?
But the fact that on paper we were getting better candidates didn't ever lead to better performance: Past a certain point, not hard to reach if you pay relatively well, the correlation between interview performance, resume and actual performance on the job is basically random. Hell, I've seen a team change managers, and seen the stack rank be basically opposite for both: One guy wanted to give a large bonus to the guy the other one wanted to put on a PiP.
Thinking that, on the interview, your candidate is magically better than your average coworker takes a lot of optimism, or a lot of pessimism about your coworkers.