Between Section 174 and the post-ZIRP environment, I think the shift is here to stay. I'm a senior software engineer, 8+ years of experience, applying to jobs I'm perfectly qualified for only to hear the exact same things you're mentioning - The position has already been filled, we're changing our staffing plans for the new year, taking a new direction, etc... I've also been getting into the 2nd and 3rd stages of interviews, making it past technical interviews, only to still get the cold shoulder at some point afterwards.
FWIW, I do think that companies right now are overreacting in the negative direction and will pay for it down the line. Layoffs always have a sort of viral feel to them, IMO, and I think the pendulum will swing back in the other direction, but it won't be soon.