That's said, I do believe that GTP-5 will be out in a year, but re:AGI is a such a bold prediction.
I realised that in 2020 I would have assumed that an AI car autopilot would have no hope with conflicting logical constraints such this, reading English traffic signs, etc...
Now? In early 2024? There are multi-modal AIs that can read arbitrary road signs, understand the text (in practically any language), and follow the logic to a correct conclusion.
Would I trust GPT-4V to control my car? No, the technology just isn't ready yet.
However, it's clearly possible now, whereas very recently it seemed impossible.
Currently, Tesla autopilot is a complex mix of multiple models, a bunch of C++ code, and more. It's "traditional software" with bits of AI in it.
I suspect that within just a few years, a pure AI model could be trained directly on video collected from the Tesla fleet, in much the same way that GPT was trained with text from the Internet and books. Sprinkle in a pre-trained GPT-5 level LLM for reading and logic, and ta-da, you have a generally intelligent driver agent that can understand spoken instructions, can read road signs, receive traffic alerts over 5G, and react appropriately. It would have learned from billions of hours of driving and a million accidents. Just like GPT, it'll have a wider range of experience than any human, prepared for any eventuality that actually occurs on roads.
We know that we can make a bigger reusable rocket, it’s just a matter of working out the details. We have no idea if FTL is even possible, let alone how.
I feel like AI is at the same point: technology demonstrators have proven that there is a way forward, now we just need oodles of computer power to make it happen.
Chat bots that can answer complex English questions used to be pure science fiction just a year ago!