There is nothing more ignorant that to be pessimistic just because of being in the midst of another crisis.
It is your fear and instincts speaking, not reason.
Because logically- mankind had never had a crisis that didn’t end up with another phase of growth that reached new heights.
No reasons to assume things are gonna be different just because you witness it.
It is exactly because of crisis things get better afterwards.
Aside from the population of Easter Island and other such resource constrained losers (/s).
I'm optimisic for the next decade simply beacuse the issues we face now were a century in the making and will take a century more to really bite.
Will I be part of this amazing growth?
And if you can afford chatting on HN - most likely you are in the priveleged group who will survive.
The fact that we keep discovering ancient civilizations that are no more, and we were not even aware of their existence until recently, argues against this point.
“Civilization”, for example Roman Empire - is a meta construct. Its death doesn’t imply death of all people in it.
So no problems with death of one company and creating a new one, eventually it benefits the employees.
Are you talking about your original statement of new growth post-crisis, or about living through the death of a civilization's collapse, or about what 'civilization' means, or about companies being created and its employees?
You seem to be all over the place, so I'm really not sure where you are going with your comments aside from your dismissive: "Nope."
Tl;dr - civilizations come and go, but humankind as a whole evolves and get better over time. Despite regular downtimes and severe turbulence.
What crisis is the world in at the moment?
Political uncertainty, economical, technological, spiritual, you name it
This is made up.
Afaik there are people watching the space for dangerous objects, so we’re better prepared than dinosaurs anyway :)
If you do worry about such things - again, fear and instincts speaking, not reason.
You can reason and be reasonably worried about things you can at least measure.
For example how long would current downtime take, or what lessons can we learn to fix things in the future etc.
I'm not I-shaped, so I will talk separately about different matters.
Technically, or on cybernetic industry, I'm absolutely optimistic, I'm sure, we will see Great achievements nearest time.
For others, I'm not so optimistic.
In my "viewport", international politics is not looking enough optimistic, I think it's not fatal, we will live, civilization infrastructure will survive, but possible millions of victims of non-optimal control.
Similar thing about international economy - it will sure suffer very much from non-optimal politics.
I believe, Earth will avoid new world war, but it will cost huge resources and huge number of victims in local conflicts.
Very high probability, we will see one of more waves of millions of refugees, and current refugees will not return to their home countries.
Yes, must admit, largest world subjects have great crisis, but I believe in democracy and I know from history, democracies usually become stronger in crisis.
So, also high probability, in nearest 2-3 years old democracies will resolve their crisis and world will become better, safer place, with more democracy, and next years will be just other technological circle.
Unfortunately, for non-democratic and for border worlds, things much worse. As democracies busy in their crisis, "third world" will suffer great shakes, already existing local wars and some tensions could also transform to few wars.
I'm sure in "third world" tech achievements will be used at war. I want to avoid such scenario, but I have not enough resources to do so.
And latest, sure, will be huge differences how these years will live "first world" and "third world", but I'm optimistic about border countries, who now making desperate tries to become important for "first world" - I think, their pains will be considered in "first world" and they will got significant support.
Is it? The country is divided mostly in an urban vs rural way. Each area is basically aligned the same as it always was. If anything, urban sprawl and transplants are causing more areas to become urbanized and lean left.
Yet... I'm conflicted. I'm the exception. Without guessing numbers/getting too into it, I can say a majority of my graduating class spanning the southern half of a state had no future. We all live in different realities.
I see the Great Value Dystopia being built around me. There's value [for someone], I'm just not sure it's me.
I feel that my company will increase their outsourcing and selling off parts of the company. The working environment at my company will continue to change in ways that make it more difficult for someone with my disability to be successful. My skills will atrophy further.
My home life will continue to be rough due to family medical issues, small children, and financial/ideological disagreements.
Overall I think there will be interesting breakthroughs in many areas of technology, medicine, etc. However, I think most of the technical enhancements will end up being misapplied or implemented in ways that are not to my liking. Life will continue to get more complicated and expensive. I'm sure that there will be more bad laws passed than good ones, however well intentioned they started out.
I like the expression "changing the game" because it suggests neither improving nor worsening the situation. It just changes the rules. Well, AI changes the game. It will be wild.
Locally, in Berlin, things will get worse. In Germany too. Too many problems went ignored for too long, too many investments were delayed. It feels like services will noticeably degrade for all residents.
Personally, things just keep getting better. I get a growing sense of mastery about life in general. I feared aging but now feel its sweeter side.
The world? Some parts will get better and others will get worse. I haven't seen enough of it to judge. I just know that one place's dark age is another's enlightenment.
Beyond the next few decades the effects of climage change are going to be hard to avoid unless you’re particularly wealthy.
I have no idea what came before, what will come, or even if this is all in my head.
Might as well play the game until its over lol. To be a pessimist or complacent is to die, for me at least.
I'm bearish on:
- big cities and living in them - tech and finance jobs - the internet
I'm bullish on:
- decentralized / rural living / communities - asset prices, both stocks and real estate
I grew up with the Doomsday Clock (atomic weapons) at 11:59... I think we'll muddle through.
It won't be 'irrational exuberance' again any time soon, nor the apocalypse (in my view).
Without that fear, you get the people like Trump, the ones who are proud to exploit the weaknesses in the system. You get your GM cows, the kinds who produce lots of meat and milk but are "unstable"; they can barely survive without human interference.
The industrial age was a terrible time for humanity in general, and I think we'll see another once AI really kicks in. The AI companies are careful about this. Many are practically begging to get regulated lol. But this self-fear is good.
But the consolidation and the .001% have really gottten in bed together in a way that they never could before. With all their assets intrisincly entangled in the global economy, AI is here to bring the next level of wealth extraction for them, greater authoritarianism and a globalisation like we havent seen.
The wars we are fighting are for who is going to be in charge of the dominant AI entanglements in finance, industry, pharma/health, media, tech, defense, security.
I am optimistic that it will be another tier in the tech evolution I've seen in my life - but a Rising tide of control of how a populous uses/benefits/consumes/produces in a complete AI entangled world, raises all authoritarian systems.
Its bleak for anyone who cant integrate into the Entanglement.
https://i.imgur.com/aMENxsB.png <<--- Wow, I was spot-the-f-on.
However, the list of >100B people obviously doesnt include a lot of people that are in the shadows. Medici is still around, Rothschilds, Germanic-royal-bloodlines in the hapsberg gotha and other lines, etc. And obviously its talking about known "market" worth - but look at how much land and real-estate is owned by people such as Rothschilds, and ilk. -
Billionaires with over $100 billion net worth (as of January 13, 2024):
https://i.imgur.com/qRZcFb5.png
Top 20 of the next tier:
https://i.imgur.com/UFHUAke.png
99% are the chattel.
I’m optimistic we won’t have nuclear annihilation.
I’m not optimistic about many other things.
I think that in the long run, we'll work them all out. Compared to my youth, the stakes these days seem lower. I no longer worry every night about getting flash boiled by a Soviet 10 Megaton warhead, or a Communist Invasion.
AI is just going to exist and rapidly develop outside the scrutiny of standardization. If you're a libertarian or venture capitalist it's probably your wet dream, but if planes and computers were developed like that then we probably still wouldn't have smartphones and passenger jets in 2024.