[0] https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch...
[0] https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch...
Return? It's been 'line only ever goes up' since November.
Rate cuts often signal an impending recession, not a bull market, as historical data shows.
The Federal Funds Effective Rate chart illustrates how recessions (marked in gray) align with periods of rate reductions.
Hum... That graph shows recessions being a signal of impeding cuts and really not the other way around.
Also, the market is predicting rate cuts in March. There is always the chance of the market being wrong, and several prominent institutions (notably Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase) have said they believe this is overly optimistic and it's unclear if we're even done with rate hikes, let alone rate cuts. The Fed statements themselves do not come anywhere close to what the market is predicting - the dot plot (which has trended overoptimistic for the last 3 years) predicts 3 rate cuts, while the market predicts 7.
The futures market expectation of 6 rate cuts is likely equivalent to a bet that there will be a recession by the year's end.
Either way you have "end-of-cheap-money" conditions or "recession" conditions and so the ZIRP-fueled hiring boom needs to get reversed.
Honestly I don't think there's much of a distinction and that the end-of-cheap-money leads to these kinds of layoffs which will eventually trigger a recession, combined with vulnerable sectors of the economy (commercial real estate, private equity) popping.
For all the fanfare that we've managed to hit a soft landing, the historically based fed-cycle recession predictions were always that a recession typically comes 6-12 months after the Fed STOPS hiking rates -- which means this July.
Startups can continue to operate for a few months burning through their reserves even though nobody's investing in them until they... can't.
When the price of bonds that banks have on their assets plunges due to increase in interest rates (they are "marked to market"). Depending on their regulatory requirements it can take a quarter or two. As a result the ratio of the assets of the banks in relation to their liabilities decreases. That's what caused SV bank to collapse (they had less money than they had liabilities and had to fold due to the bank run). In the case of citibank they had to put $1.7 bln into the government deposit insurance fund, which is likely related to the same phenomenon.
Interestingly enough, they also reported that a big part of their one-time expenses ($3.8 bln total) included reorganization expenses, e.g. all the severance they had to pay to the people they laid off in 2023 and other costs related to cutting those people.
Even more interesting, they expect the expense related to cutting 20,000 people to be between $700,000 and $1 billion.
All things considered, Citibank doesn't strike me as a particularly well run organization, and low-level employees are paying the price. As per usual.
This is how I am imagine it went down.
> Excuse me, sir. The council is worried about the economy heating up. They wondered if it'd be possible to fire 500000. Maybe from one of the smaller companies where no one would notice, like one of the cab companies.
> Fire one million.
They can fire now and still be covered by "the market made us do it".
Fire now, and rehire for less in the next quarter or two.
The US needs better protection for workers. If a corp has to fire 20k, that is a leadership problem and they should go too.
Now that the stock market will probably immediately reward you if you just recite the mantra "we overhired, COVID, etc", it's just the latest way to juice your stock price. There's enough padding when you have thousands of employees that your products won't suffer too much, and it gives you an excuse to reorg and perhaps find more efficiencies in the process. In theory, I can see the draw of "a reset will make us faster".
Of course, new efficiencies aren't guaranteed and the company's output may stay the same or shrink in the future, but at least the shareholders got more money.
Layoffs in December can potentially be bad press, so what we're seeing now is the execution of the 2023 plan to Big Reset before the market judges this type of move as a bad look again. Everyone else is juicing their stock prices this way, why shouldn't we?
Since 2000 Citi stock is down more than 90%. JPMC and BofA generate an order of magnitude more revenue per employee than Citi. Jane Fraser is just the latest in a long series of executives seemingly unable to tame the beast.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.htm Nov 2023 saw 1.5M involuntary separations (ie layoffs) in a month that saw a net of 200K new jobs.
Fraser (the CEO) has been talking a big game for months about taking drastic action to turn Citi around. Sooner or later she had to actually do something or else her own position would start to look very vulnerable.
However:
> Just about every time the Fed started CUTTING rates dating back to 1950, the unemployment rate has spiked.
[1] pic.twitter.com/DChSRJJdD7
The phenomena of dropping rates when a recession is impending is congruent with the "maximize employment" portion of their mandate, which predated 1977. Indeed, their failure to do this in 1929-1930 led to the Great Depression. Ben Bernanke's pre-Fed-chair academic career was devoted to studying that.