I agree to the first point that it isn't suspicious given how dangerous motorcycle accidents are. These accidents have a staggering 80% injury or death rate.
This is not the number that really matters in this context.
Falling out of a 8 story window has an incredibly high injury/death rate. Yet those we often assume ARE the result of foul-play.
What we're really comparing here is the probability of a party either lying, or contributing (causing) the motor cycle accident. The lethality rates aren't super interesting in this case. The main difference between this and falling out of windows, is that window-falls are much more rare then motor cycle accidents.
Who is 'we'? Falls out of buildings are overwhelmingly due to accidents by tradespeople or suicide.
Most homicides by being pushed from a height occur in remote areas, not from buildings. Most windows on high buildings are limited in how far they open during normal operation for safety reasons. And most older buildings that lack these features have smaller windows with higher sills. Statistics aren't tracked to this level by most crime reports because it is so overwhelmingly rare for someone to be killed this way.
While homicidal defenestration makes for a good fictional story line, I don't think it is useful for murderers.
> Statistics aren't tracked to this level by most crime reports because it is so overwhelmingly rare for someone to be killed this way.
The real issue here is we aren't comparing the statistics of the "average joe". For random-person we can predict the reason for their fall was unlikely to be state-level foul play - in fact near zero chance of it.
The likely hood of state-level foul play is substantially higher for spies, rich oligarchs with unpopular opinions, journalists, etc. How much higher I have no idea.
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Anyway my point was the lethality of the cause of death is really not what anyone is interested in. When spies, rich oligarchs with unpopular opinions, journalists, etc die shortly after they did something particularly provoking I don't think people care about the lethality of the incident as much as the cause.
However, it's also easy to fall into the fallacious trap of defining people solely by their profession. People who have sensitive jobs and also do other risky activities in their spare time incur those risks in addition to the risks they have due to their profession.
In fact, some successful people with enemies engage in more risky activities because they can afford to do so. Rich people dying in general aviation accidents is a pretty frequent pattern, for example.
Plenty of weirdly coincidental falls from windows:
> Ravil Maganov, September 1 2022, reportedly hospitalised for heart problems and depression, then "fell out of a window"
> Grigory Kochenov, December 7 2022, reportedly fell to his death from his balcony while officials from the Investigative Committee executed a search warrant for his apartment
> Dmitriy Zelenov, December 9 2022, reportedly felt ill and fell over a railing and hit his head, later died in hospital without regaining consciousness
> Pavel Antov, December 24 2022, fell out of window from Hotel Sai International
> Marina Yankina, February 16 2023, found dead after falling from a window on the 16th-floor of a high-rise building.
> Artyom Bartenev, June 8 2023, found dead after falling 12 stories from his apartment window.
> Kristina Baikova, June 23 2023, fell off her apartment at the 11th floor; circumstances of the incident have not yet been clarified.
Plane crashes have a pretty high death rate too, but plane crashs are rare.
What is the probability of having a motorcycle accident in Saudi Arabia.
The odds of dying in a traffic accident in that country are considerably higher than in the United States, and much higher than in other developed countries (sorry USA, you suck at road safety, but not as much as the UAE does)[1].
While I don't have country-specific statistics to hand, the odds of dying riding a motorcycle are much, much higher than in a car. One estimate is that you are around 27 times more likely to die per distance driven/ridden [2].
Even so, in an absolute sense, the odds of dying on a typical motorcycle commute are low. My guess is that your odds of meeting foul play shortly after screwing with the Iranian nuclear program are likely higher than dying in a random traffic accident. But coincidences do occur.
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...
[2] https://www.autoinsurance.org/motorcycle-vs-car-accidents/
The US is right in the middle -- doing better than the Czech Republic and South Korea -- on the metric that matters on the page you linked, but really, more data is needed because the metric you want to look at is mostly missing from the table.
But to be serious, I meant it mostly that it's certainly one case that would warrant extra investigations. Even if it was a random accident, someone like the Iranians could have claimed that their super advanced spy hunting team got him.
Either one can cause what looks like a typical accident.