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Comment by TrackerFF | Hacker News Reader

If we're going to look at it from a fundamental perspective - what drives people to purchase BTC?

I don't know about you, but close to 100% of everyone I know that have bought BTC (and other coins, for that matter) the past 5-10 years have done it in hopes of it going to the moon. The bitcoin maxis are at this point a fringe movement, a distant past, really.

If you put all your savings on index funds, there is some predictability and underlying assets to reason for. What is the best predictor for whether crypto goes up or down? How can you possibly predict what triggers its price, if there's little to none real-life usage?

Unless we see widespread adaption of some sort, for actual concrete applications, it is just going to be pure speculation.

But I agree on volatility - ETFs can certainly reduce volatility if there's enough growth.

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I have all my savings stored in bitcoin. I do it because I've spent 100s of hours learning what money really is and can see that bitcoin is the best form of it, certainly the best long term store of value. I also know that the best long term store of value will ultimately be where the world's stored value is moved to.

I like your courage, but you really should diversify. Life is long and none of us have a crystal ball. If you don't trust USD, get some other currencies, including crypto. Get some property. Gold. Bonds. Stocks. Savings. Shit happens and you need to defend your portfolio as well as maximise profits.

No way. I came for the gains but I'm staying for the revolution.

It doesn't take resolve, only 100s of hours of learning and contemplation.

I'll die on this hill, and there's many more like me.

Your money, your call.

But I'm wondering - why wouldn't you invest in business? Business are, after all, the drivers of economy.

While cryptocurrencies could theoretically grow to "infinite" (finite supply and all. combined with fiat monetary policies), there must be some realistic limit to the growth, where the price starts to converge. For BTC, that price is somewhere in the single digit millions. Could make a long post of how I came up with that figure, but basically assume that everyone owning any assets in the world manage to liquidate those, and go all in on BTC, nothing else. Combined with investing newly minted fiat into BTC. (Never mind the economical consequences of public companies being worth close to zero $, and people only spending their money on BTC)

So let's say that BTC "only" has a theoretical maximum of, say, 100x increase from the current price. (but more realistically 10x-20x)

If you really wanted to make a killing, wouldn't it be better to also invest in revolutionary companies? NVIDIA has jumped 100x the past 10 years. There will likely be other NVIDIAs out there.

Obviously this wouldn't mean as much if you're a longtime holder, but from the perspective of a fresh investor, that's where one stands right now.

None of them offer the probability of bitcoin. It's the most asymmetrical bet I've ever seen.

The only reason it's not already $10M/BTC is that noone understands what it is - many people think they do, but they don't. As someone who has studied the subject for 100s of hours, I haven't come across a single valid argument for why it won't absorb all the stored value in the world over time. The hardest part is just being patient while everyone figures it out.

The supply halving every 4 years helps to bring it to their attention :)

Regarding potential value, this article offers food for thought: https://t.co/eLqJCYeCKW

I'll try:

For BTC to absorb all stored value in the world, it would need to be the only currency in the world. That is the only way all assets in the world are bought/sold with BTC.

But that alone is, IMO, a non-starter. It assumes that all countries in the world would more or less give up control of their own currency and economy - if BTC is the only currency worth anything, why would anyone own or get paid in anything other than BTC? Which brings me to the next point...

This is not directed at you, but I think the BTC maxis severely underestimate the power and control that governments hold over these things. They can (and will) force you to pay your faxes, fees, and whatever they want in their currency, and have to power to use force if you chose not to.

If crypto poses a legitimate threat to that power and control, it is much easier to remove the threat than to adapt your system to it.

It does pose an extremely legitimate threat to their power, but there is nothing they can do about it. They can't stop it. They either embrace bitcoin or suffer economic collapse.

The only reason there are so many fist currencies is because no country wants to be using a currency that another is printing for free.

With bitcoin, that's not an issue and countries like El Salvador, Argentina would happily use it as the basis for a currency and thrive because of it. Over time, societies that use the best money win.

> If crypto poses a legitimate threat to that power and control, it is much easier to remove the threat than to adapt your system to it.

In fact the opposite of this is happening. We are in a discussion about how the SEC was ordered by the courts to further integrate Bitcoin into the existing financial system. Despite their protests and attempts to impose their own will on the rights of the people.

You sound like you are in a cult.

Well, I certainly passionately believe in something that a lot of people think is garbage. I'll agree with that. The thing is, I used to think like them until I put in the time to seriously learn. Now I'm enlightened (yep, I just made it worse)

Personally I think it's one of mankind's most important discoveries. It will improve the world more than most people could imagine. And it's going up forever.

Are you hoping for it to remain the same or are you hoping for an increase compared to usd? Asking because you mentioned stored. What if you could buy shares with btc? If value just sits there and is not used in a productive way - things companies try to do - you're subscribing to a very static world view. It might make sense if you are close to retirement - where people usually move to stable assets - but generally you want your assets to be used in a productive way rather than hidden away.

Remain the same value or price?

If it remains the same value its USD price will increase at the rate of devaluation of the dollar which is 7% on average (value halves every decade)

If I wanted to make my bitcoin "productive", I could lend it to businesses and then receive interest on top - so bitcoin would go up in price at 7% and then I'd also receive back 5 to 10% more bitcoin per year.

No other asset will ever come close to this, without taking on risk or extra work. Which is why bitcoin will very likely also go up 2000% in value over the next decade.

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