AI has increased productivity which might be a reason for it
It's like a lot of those fabled 10x engineers that I've run into over the years; they may seem like they're incredibly productive and managers love them, but in reality their work is so riddled with issues and rushed half-baked ideas, that they end up costing the other engineers on the team 10x the amount of their time to review and fix it all. And it's those other engineers who do all of the invaluable but underappreciated cleanup work who are getting the boot right now.
That's the important parallel with using AI in production: on the surface it may seem like the solution to all productivity problems, but in reality it still takes a lot of human brainpower to review, assess, fix and maintain whatever the AI model spits out. Especially since generative AIs like to present their work with supreme confidence, and it's getting increasingly hard to separate the chaff from the wheat.
But it's like growing plants, in the sense that it only takes one crucial element to be missing to limit growth (or "output").
I've met a few ppl who were _reliable_ 10xers (could navigate a much wider range of techs / domains / situations than others) but I've seen even the best crash and burn at times when the circumstances aren't right.
These are the kind of people who cook up something like git when they take a one year sabbatical from their main project.
Or even hardware people like Jim Keller.
10x engineers are plentiful if you define the median engineer as 1x. There are a LOT of mediocre engineers out there to draw the median down.
Every other developer on the project has to do at least 3 times as much work, they have to read through the original code and try and understand what the original person was thinking of when writing it before even getting to solving the problem at hand.
A true 10x developer would write code good enough that every other developer could maintain it as easily as the original author.
Maybe 15% of the time it has been a hindrance by making up stuff. It's basically a faster version of Stack Overflow / web search.
A lot of IT work is maintenance work, and it knows nothing about those systems. It's good for me for JavaScript as I spend 80% of my time on the backend. I know enough JavaScript to debug other peoples work, or to add some simple jQuery / vanilla JS to an HTML page (which is all that is needed in the majority of cases), but if I was to build a React App from scratch, it would likely look like beginner level stuff.
Has anyone had experience with the paid version of ChatGPT? How does it compare?
Some things that would have taken me weeks take days. And some things that used to take days take 1-3 hours.
Novel work can't yet be automated. But... most of the work I do is not novel, and theres files and files of preexisting context for copilot to consume.
As for this effect being widespread and noticed enough to be related to the firing. I dont think its the case.
The people I work with don't seem to get nearly as much out of the tools as I do, and not for lack of trying. They're constantly using the tools too. Even if companies are considerably more productice with the tools, I do not think management would have been attuned enough to performance and costd to have instigated layoffs from it.
Like saying that you run faster after a cup of coffee, cool ?
Much of what I've done with ai tools I have had to do before and struggled over days. I was a python dev mostly but I had cases at work where I needed to write java, c, or c++. The genicam compliant industrial camera nonsense it got me through in a few hours was insane. And using a fuzzy logic library. I did not have to spend tons of time reading the documentation, struggling with cmake, or figuring out how to install and link dlls or even syntax for that matter. I can start to type a comment of a high level description of a small codeblock and copilot spits it out. This works in any language.
It isnt that it speeds up every single operation I do. When I get in the zone I toggle it off. But 80% of the time i hit a snag it instantly short circuits me through the issue. I can and do ask follow up questions about how the thing works so the next time I come across it it wont even be a snag. So I have had slowly compounding speed boosts from it for two years. I code faster with it also because it taught me things, and I have learned when to turn it off (often)
It's marginally better than Stackoverflow (which I've only ever used to give me an idea that I then turn into my own code, usually written from scratch, because most code is littered with security vulnerabilities).
It's a long way from replacing developers or increasing productivity on a measurable level. It's also like building your business on quick sand. Some feature you use today might be put behind a higher pay-tier (or removed) at any time.