People underestimate, I think, how much nudging happens at the institutional level which cryptocurrencies might shut down. It is a really exciting experiment from that perspective.
People underestimate, I think, how much nudging happens at the institutional level which cryptocurrencies might shut down. It is a really exciting experiment from that perspective.
So overall it seems quite easy to force the matter and implement KYC and AML for msot legal Bitcoin transactions.
At that point people would seriously have more interest in the so-called "L1 scaling solutions" which mining pools blocked. And mining blocks can't block such things anymore given that there is enough interest.
They can happily regulate on and off ramps, and enforce traceability etc for anything that touches the 'real' economy though, should they wish.
History shows that societies with the hardest money win.
I think I’d like that to be true, but I don’t see much evidence of it. Do you have some examples?
However although gold is hard, it fair to say that it was beaten somewhat by soft fiat money, simply due to the overwhelmingly better other monetary qualities of fiat (e.g. portability and divisibility) especially in the digital age.
Bitcoin is a hard money that takes the best monetary qualities of both fiat and gold, improves them, and combines them into a single asset with which neither fiat or gold (or shells or beads for that matter) can compete.
It would have been more accurate for me to have said "societies with the _best_ money win"
Not it doesen't. Also bitcoin is not money (why do people keep claiming this?), it's a speculative asset.
Okay
I have purchased items and payed off loans using BTC. So have millions of other people. You calling it not money doesn't make it so. Sorry.
I can exchange grain or aluminum for other goods and services and pay back my debts in them if the other party agrees. Does that those commodities money? If you think so and then yeah you're right about bitcoin too. Otherwise, it's not. Sorry.
[1] SEC vs. Shavers followed by FBI vs. Shavers
DOJ victim emails are neat!
This whole ETF thing has been a long time coming in terms of precedent at the legal level. Court cases are how things happen in America unfortunately.
Gold isn't money - it's a commodity. It isn't even a great store of value over that last thousand years or so.
It grows stronger/more efficient compared to others.
> Gold isn't money - it's a commodity. It isn't even a great store of value over that last thousand years or so.
I don't want to argue semantics, but yes gold certainly isn't great at storing value - its supply doubles every 40 years and over the last 100+ years has been slowly demonetised as economic value moved into fiat.
There is a lot more to societies than money. Can you do huge damage to societies from hyperinflation - for sure, but outside of catastrophic failures of money, not so sure there is a strong link.
Yes I'm assuming all else equal or when studied over a long period of time. Nowadays we can use our knowledge and intelligence to simply start using better money in advance.
> Can you do huge damage to societies from hyperinflation - for sure, but outside of catastrophic failures of money, not so sure there is a strong link.
I don't think you appreciate the damage that has already been caused by fiat. Look at USA, the UK and compare them to just 50 years ago. We think we are rich but it's just an illusion caused by devalued money. An average man used to be able to own a home, and support a wife and kids on his salary. Those days are long gone. The bankers are unjustly getting more and more powerful (far more powerful than the governments) while the people are becoming weaker and weaker.
I struggle to see shifts in earning power as a fiat issue. Why isn't it weaker unions in the US or UK, for example? Why not (de-)regulation or any other long list of things. The shifts in power are not a result of fiat or devaluation (why were only a few powerful in times with very hard money?). You can have places where less GDP is in the financial sector and still lower earnings cohorts had a miserable history (or even the median earner). Germany has a rather smaller banking sector than the US, but real earnings over that last 25 years have only moved a little (so has productivity).
The hope that somehow by changing the money a complex set of problems goes away is in error, I believe, and not helpful in addressing those issues. (You can also look at monetary reforms and see that those didn't magically solve all problems.)
People have been unknowingly getting pay cuts each year for the last 50+ years. They are unaware because they receive more currency units each year and are still able to afford the same everyday consumables.
They don't realise that the consumables have been getting cheaper and cheaper over the decades (through efficiencies of production) because currency devaluation causes prices to actually go up.
It's only when they try to buy hard assets like real estate that have retained their value and find them impossibly expensive, without understanding why.
Then you've got all the devalued pensions and savings, and other stealth wealth transfer through "capital gains" tax (the more the bankers print themselves money to lend out, the capital gains tax we have to pay) and income tax bands that don't track nominal wage increases etc.
GDP appears to increase, but it's just an illusion caused by the devaluation of the units it's measured in. In the US it has been going down for decades.
It is a slow transfer of wealth from the population to the bankers. People work harder, but find themselves increasingly struggling to survive. They become unmotivated and ultimately when the deterioration in living standards becomes too much, revolt.
And that's only within the country that's printing the money. For other countries using that currency, the effect is even worse as the entire country is stealthily looted.
All the time, the bankers are acquiring all this wealth and are becoming richer and more powerful than many people could imagine. Able to control governments and mass media alike.
This is why Satoshi Nakamoto created bitcoin.
Also, certainly it is not the bankers that are the super rich or even in control etc. (Btw., that also holds for the gilded age in terms of wealth).
Well the banks are collecting interest on every single dollar in existence. All created by them out of thin air. Currently that's in the region of $80T and it's been going in for decades, centuries even.
As far as house price inflation is concerned, depending on what your basket is, prices increased quite a bit more than the CPI basket (so up in value), if you hold the S&P next to it, not do much difference.
Wealth can't really use to purchase anything with is not real wealth. If you can't convert bitcoin to $/€ it becomes effectively worthless
> History shows that societies with the hardest money win.
Objectively not true. Look at what happened with Britain after 1918 when tried doing everything they could to stick with "hard" money and avoid devaluation/dropping the gold standard.
I agree, that is why Bitcoin was supposed to be electronic cash, you were supposed to be able to pay for everything with it.
Bitcoin (BTC) doesn't scale today to this purpose, but you can still use it to pay directly for some products and services as long as the other party will accept it. For those wanting Fiat money you could exchange BTC to stablecoins, even in a decentralized way like with ThorChain [0].
What's missing is some seamless bridge between stablecoins and Fiat payment methods and bank accounts. Then you could pay for anything. However I would argue that Bitcoin was meant to become the payment method, as Satoshi Nakamoto described in the whitepaper [1].
You can but generally you don't want to. Besides the technical issues it's a very volatile asset which means that you don't want to hold it for any extended period of time (IF you're only using it to pay for stuff).
> There will always be more volatility to the upside
That's a very strong statement.
The price of a house used to be 100 bitcoin, then 10, now it's 5. Wait 10 years and it'll be 0.5. Meanwhile, hold dollars and the price keeps going up. You are defacto forced to put your saving in an investment vehicle to keep up with inflation, taking on risk.
Yes. You got it. That's how you get economic growth. Instead of stagnation and deflation when you hoard gold or bitcoin. It's not exactly fair from the individual people perspective but for the society as whole it's objective the superior option.
> To the contrary
I know that reading comprehension is hard (even if the "IF" was in very big letters..). If your income is in $ and you buy stuff priced in $ AND you don't want to use crypto as an investment instrument but only for buying/selling good holding it for extended periods of time is not smart (same applies to foreign currencies in general they are just not as volatile).
[0] https://www.mail-archive.com/cryptography@metzdowd.com/msg09...
> Look at what happened with Britain after 1918 when tried doing everything they could to stick with "hard" money and avoid devaluation/dropping the gold standard.
Soft money wins in the short term. Hard money wins in the long term.
What do you mean by that? Repeatedly saying the same thing multiple times doesn't make it any more accurate. The type of "hard" money you're talking about only work in mostly static economies with untrustworthy and ineffective governments, under other conditions it inhibits growth and causes all sort of economic instability and much deeper boom and bust cycles (mainly for the "bust" part, Fiat money is the opposite).
It "wins in the long term" because it's sort of a fallback option when there are no other alternatives (i.e. most of human history) but far from the optimal one.
Hard money is fair money. Populations thrive when built on a fair foundations.
Does the stealth taking of my wealth and giving it to the bankers benefit or harm society?
"You have some pigs and I have some chickens, but I don't want pigs right now"
On top of that, it is the first global currency, that is internet native. It's an upgrade like going from papyrus/parchment to the printing press. The first printing presses were smuggled throughout Europe. But hey, stick with your evil fiat holy roman empire that steals from you. Don't ever question why inflation exists.
Don't want to give out your credit card to an untrustworthy or unknown website, but you still want to buy their ebook? Use Bitcoin. With credit cards, the private keys are used in every transaction.
Or you know... switch to a bank that allows you to get an unique card number for any transaction with a click of a button. Or use SEPA, or many other similar alternatives which (and I'm not overstating this) are 100-1000 times more efficient that Bitcoin.
You could say that they would have lost WWI without leaving the gold standard (other world governments followed suit by leaving the gold standard after Britain did) but imho the war would have ended sooner. Lyn Alden talks and writes about this quite a bit in her books and blog.
I mainly meant their attempts to get back on the gold standard in the 1920s. Unlike e.g. France and the other European countries which didn't really have a choice and had to devalute. It put Britain industry and economy at a disadvantage during the 20s (on the brightside Britain didn't suffer from the Great Depression as much..).
e.g. between 1910 and 1930 inflation in Britain only averaged 3.0%.
And between 1920 and 1930 it was negative (with 3.7% deflation, which is huge..) while the Franc lost ~50% of its value during those years.
As a consequence in Britain unemployment stayed high and there was hardly any growth in the 1920s. While France recovered much faster despite suffering much more during WW1: https://cdn.theatlantic.com/media/mt/business/112712krugman2...
Right. Like sticking to the nonsense that was the gold standard.
Inherently deflationary virtual token make an objective horrible currency. Believing otherwise puts you on part with the flat earth people.
Why's that then?
Deflation significantly inhibits economic growth, making borrowing much more risky and would result in significantly more wealth inequality than we even have now.
Why invest into anything when you can just hoard money and get richer by not risking anything?
> priced gold at its true value
Which is determined how and by whom? If you let the market do it's that basically (while not technically) Fiat...
But what good is that? All you get is traceability for people with nothing to hide. You can't actually prevent on and off ramps because anybody could go to the black market digital currency dealer (whose operations are conveniently situated near the local drug dealer) and exchange digital currency for anything that can be easily pawned, or cash, and the people you'd actually be interested in tracing just do that.
Which makes the KYC/AML rules de facto optional for anyone already breaking the law, but you're still inconveniencing anyone abiding the law because you e.g. can't have an anonymous vending machine because the machine would be required by law to verify your identity before accepting your money. Which is ridiculous when the vending machine sells candy bars and perverse when it sells contraceptives.
Laundering crypto is extremely easy and cheap. You trade it on a crypto-only exchange (no KYC there) and trade it back. You can go further by doing both trades on different platform and using Monero. Now your dirty BTC belong to the exchange and will get spread out to everyone.
Have we officially abandoned the original goal of privacy/anonymity with bitcoin? Privacy isn't only a good thing when you have something to hide.
> You can't actually prevent on and off ramps because anybody could go to the black market
On and off ramps are generally meant to only include the legal avenues for buying and selling bitcoin. The government can absolutely regulate those, the black market is a separate concept. If you are left only with black market trades, the available market for the currency is drastically reduced and the potential value would be a fraction if what it otherwise could be.
But if you have something to hide and the official on ramps and off ramps don't allow you to hide it, you can just use the black market, so the only people using the official system in that context are the people who believe themselves to be uninteresting to the government. Which naturally excludes nearly all the people the government is legitimately interested in, making the KYC requirements a pointless burden on innocent people.
> On and off ramps are generally meant to only include the legal avenues for buying and selling bitcoin. The government can absolutely regulate those, the black market is a separate concept.
Generally speaking government regulations only work when at least one of the buyer or seller wants the regulations, e.g. you buy your medication from the pharmacy and not a drug dealer because you want the quality controls the government imposes, even if the seller would rather not. So the openly operated pharmacy outcompetes the black market for aspirin.
When both the buyer and the seller have no interest in the rules, neither of them reports the other for violating them and then they're basically unenforceable. Which is hot garbage, because the costs of the rules still fall on the people they weren't meant to constrain, and the vig on the transactions funds other black market activities, and the inability of the parties to resolve disputes through the legal system begets violence etc.
Oh I'd be all for getting rid of KYC laws and similar, no complaints here.
> you buy your medication from the pharmacy and not a drug dealer because you want the quality controls the government imposes
Personally if I were buying prescription meds I'd go to a pharmacy simply because I don't went to be caught and charged with illegally buying a controlled substance. I don't have much faith in the pharmaceutical industry or its regulation.
> When both the buyer and the seller have no interest in the rules, neither of them reports the other for violating them and then they're basically unenforceable.
This is where you lose me a bit. The laws are enforceable if they catch you. Catching you will be harder on the black market, but you absolutely can be charged if they do.
My original point was more about the limited market if you have to go black market. Fewer potential customers to transact with means demand goes down, in all likelihood the value of bitcoin would be much lower if there were no legal uses for it.
I'm not entirely sure why we still have them. They're expensive and inconvenient, studies have shown that they're extraordinarily ineffective, as far as I can tell they persist because people have the perception that they're important and then resist getting rid of them.
> Personally if I were buying prescription meds I'd go to a pharmacy simply because I don't went to be caught and charged with illegally buying a controlled substance.
Aspirin isn't a controlled substance. In theory someone who didn't have to comply with regulations could supply it for a lower price. But the drug store's price isn't particularly excessive and risking your life on your distant acquaintance's chemistry skills generally isn't worth saving $0.50.
If the price difference was much higher or the pharmacy wasn't allowed to sell it to you at all then many people would do exactly that, as we've seen.
> The laws are enforceable if they catch you. Catching you will be harder on the black market, but you absolutely can be charged if they do.
You have to consider how catching you generally happens.
Suppose you have a law requiring merchants to offer a 30 day warranty. This is easy to enforce -- the customer goes to have the merchant honor the warranty and if they don't the customer reports them to the government.
Now suppose the law prohibits certain types of transactions, even if neither party is deceiving the other and both are entering into the transaction with informed consent and of their own free will. Well then they're just going to do it and not tell anybody about it, and how is anybody going to find out?
The government can try to enforce laws like that. But their ability to depends on the perpetrator's willingness to do business with strangers who are really undercover law enforcement. In general the higher level operators avoid doing that and the low level pawns are disposable and arresting them doesn't make a dent.
Trying to do that with digital currency is possibly the hardest of any of them because by its nature it's fungible and can be transferred across the internet. If someone set up a foreign site where anyone could exchange cryptocurrency for bullion or some other commodity, what does KYC enforcement look like? The party intended to be doing it would be outside the jurisdiction and the most visible artifact would be a package with some non-contraband fungible commodity going through the mail.
> Fewer potential customers to transact with means demand goes down, in all likelihood the value of bitcoin would be much lower if there were no legal uses for it.
The premise isn't that there are no legal uses, it's that the legal uses would have to do KYC. So the people not breaking any laws would do the KYC and the people breaking laws would not.
Also, the value of Bitcoin only really matters to people holding non-trivial amounts of it or making contracts denominated in it, i.e. speculators. It makes little difference to anyone using nominal amounts as a currency.
Am I misremembering or did the other blockchain do exactly that in response to the DAO hack?
https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-history-part-10-the-184-bil...
best of luck to your imagined future; but it reads very naive to me.
I will never understand how people fault crypto for not somehow magically solving the world's financial ills, as if humanity has ever had another (successful) plan for wealth distribution. How's that communism working out?
Crypto is meant to solve the trustless distributed ledger problem, nothing more, nothing less. Expecting human nature to somehow change because of this technology is ridiculous.
I'm not a bitcoin proponent by the way, and am well aware that it has massive downsides like the proof of work energy usage (addressed by proof of stake but often ignored because of bitcoin always taking the spotlight). I'm just sick of people naysaying without understanding the fundamental problem it actually does solve, and pretending there's no value or potential in the technology at all.
History has proven time and time again that sound money requires equivalent work to create.
Except it's extremely unsuited for this purpose despite of what some delusional people might be thinking. No (at at least semi stable) country ever will use bitcoin as their primary reserve asset...
But no, not because I say so but because it's obvious if you have at least a cursory understanding of the international monetary system works.
> But no, not because I say so but because it's obvious
Okay, so not because you say so but because you think so :)
Well.. I mean it's a bit like the "climate change is fake" or "5G causes cancer" people. Getting into a serious argument with them only legitimizes their viewpoints and makes them seem just as valid for not good reason..
- 5G causes cancer
- bitcoin is a scam
Your substantive and well-reasoned argument fits right in with that list ;)
That what you said, please don't put words into my mouth. My only point is that bitcoin (or crypto in general) would make a horrible currency if widely adopted. And it has nothing to do with any technical limitations related to bitcoin, extremely deflationary tokens just make a horrible currency (unless no growth, deflation and a permanent economic depression).
> Your substantive and well-reasoned argument
It certainly wasn't intended to be perceived as such.
(trying to make well-reasoned arguments when arguing with quasi-religious fanatics is a waste of time.. ).
Bitcoin is extremely deflationary. Imagine (or read a history book) a society in which almost all wealth/income is derived from land (a "deflationary" asset the value of which only increases as population grows and 95%+ of it is inherited).
Bitcoin is that just much worse because unlike in the case of land you don't need labor and significant capital investment to make any money from it you can just hoard it get richer without doing anything, which means:
- no economic growth (why invest in anything economically productive but risky when you can just get richer by doing nothing)
- eventually 90%+ of all wealth will become inherited and people who were born poor/disadvantage will remember these times as a lost utopia.
> It’s a pretty bad deal for most people.
Yes and even if bitcoin is a "better deal" for you it will be a significantly worse deal long term for the people who follow you..
If you have a growing economy (of course not a concern it bitcoin would replace Fiat currencies) it's extremely deflationary. The supply of money has to grow at least at the same pace as the demand for it, otherwise bad things happen...
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/j.2325-8012....
Did they? The war is in a stalemate. Militarily this isn't that different than the proxy wars of the Cold War EXCEPT Russia has suffered more casualties by a magnitude or two than the USSR did in Afghanistan or the US in Vietnam. For the Russian regime this war is now 100% an existential threat.
For the US from an entirely a real-politik point of view, if the end goal is to defeat Russia dragging the war on might even be a preferable option. After this is over Russian will be militarily crippled for the next 10-20 years due to massive and unsustainable manpower and economic costs. The balance of power will tip even further towards NATO making any further Russian expansion in Eastern Europe impossible (especially now that Finland and Sweden have joined).
Of course Ukraine is caught in between...
For everyone this war is an existential threat. It is unusual for governments that come in after a revolution to be more stable than their predecessors and any successor to Putin will still have the worlds largest nuclear weapons stockpile. There is an outside chance of a literal replay of Germany WWI -> WWII if the Russians collapse. Not to mention the risk of armageddon from the current war; I'd still expect to get another Able Archer style story to add to the near misses out of this conflict.
And from a realpolitik perspective, sure the US is coming off better than Russia here. But the US isn't coming off well; it's military looks a bit wheezy through all this. If they can't deter the world's 11th largest economy from going to war in NATO's sphere of influence; what can they deter? If they can't muster the resources to turn back the Russians in 2023, what are they going to be able to pull in Africa, the middle east and APAC region?
EDIT Bearing in mind we're talking about someone trading Bitcoin in a way they don't like. "this assumes USD hegemony is a distant memory. does bitcoin have the largest weapons cache and standing military in the history of humanity?" is just bunk. They don't have that sort of power these days.
True but "only" because Russia has nukes (you certainly have an extremely valid point about that). However despite WWI Germany was still one of the (or the) economically strongest powers in Europe and the whole world. Besides oil and other raw resources the Russian economy is a joke. Due to their demographic issues and the mass casualties in this war they wouldn't even have the manpower to pull off something even remotely similar to what Germany did. So their only tool they'll have left is "do what we want or we'll blow up the entire world" (and you can only get so far with that..)
> it's military looks a bit wheezy through all this
It it their military itself or rather their "soft"/diplomatic power? It doesn't really matter how strong your conventional army is if you and your opponents know that you won't/can't use it?
> in NATO's sphere of influence
Prior to 2014 Ukraine was certainly in Russia's sphere of influence. This whole thing started because Ukraine (mostly peacefully) was trying to leave it and US/NATO didn't really want to get involved that much into the whole situation until it was too late. So I'm not sure it's that clear cut.
> Bearing in mind we're talking about someone trading Bitcoin in a way they don't like. "this assumes USD hegemony is a distant memory. does bitcoin have the largest weapons cache and standing military in the history of humanity?" is just bunk. They don't have that sort of power these days.
I don't agree with the whole premise. The ability of the US to project military power these days is only somewhat tangentially related to its (and the Dollar's) global economic and financial dominance. They most certainly can more or less stop "trading Bitcoin in a way they don't like" without firing a shot it's just the the cost of doing that is not (yet) worth the effort. AFAIK China is not that eager to switch to bitcoin either (and without China, US, Europe and their allies you only have non particularly economically relevant third tier countries/economies left).
Possibly. Given how much of the rest of the Russian forces turned out to be paper tigers, I wouldn't be surprised if 80% of the missiles' flight computers are missing something flight critical and 80% of the warheads have unenriched (or even outright depleted) uranium instead of weapons grade uranium or plutonium, with the real stuff having been lost (or never made in the fist place) due to corruption, and the SLBMs… well, thinking of replaying history, the Kursk comes to mind.
And while I don't think much of the promises of western anti-ICBM defences, they're probably still at least a bit better than the Russian delivery mechanisms.
Certainly possible that we'll see a repeat of Germany WWI -> WWII when the Russians collapse, I think that fear was why the west tried to be supportive of Russia when the USSR collapsed.
> "this assumes USD hegemony is a distant memory. does bitcoin have the largest weapons cache and standing military in the history of humanity?" is just bunk.
Sure. "Largest weapons cache" is too vague anyway — anyone can tell that the number of longbows don't matter too much any more, but sometimes we get people surprised that battleships also don't matter any more.
(Also: I thought the largest standing army was China, anyway?)
Are these the missiles that Russia ran out of in March 2022, March 2023 and then in June 2023 or the other ones?
I suspect that people are a little more cautious about corruption whenever the results are regularly tested, e.g. if they think the missile they make this month gets shipped to the front line next month, and if it doesn't launch they will be personally posted to a flood-prone trench near a dam in the Dnipro river.
ICBMs are supposed to not get launched outside of tests, they're meant to defend a country by their mere existence threatening mutually assured destruction. This doesn't work so well if people (like me) openly doubt they work. It also means that corruption is much easier to hide, which in turn means it's much more likely to happen. (This latter point also applies to the USA's arsenal, FWIW, but that only matters to the extent that anyone fears the USA collapsing into its second real civil war).
It does show two things: US hegemony over certain European countries that might want to take Russian money and gas is weak, and the US foreign policy coherence is weak as Ukraine policy is at risk from cranks.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040
• 39 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 12 National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS); 1 Patriot air defense battery; other air defense systems; and 21 air surveillance radars;
• 31 Abrams tanks, 45 T-72B tanks and 186 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles;
• 300 M113 and 189 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers;
• 2,000+ Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
• 10,000+ Javelin and 90,000+ other anti-armor systems;
• Phoenix Ghost, Switchblade, and other UAS;
• 198 155 mm and 72 105 mm Howitzers and artillery;
• 227 mortar systems;
• Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) Systems;
• 9,000+ Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire- Guided (TOW) missiles;
• High-speed anti-radiation missiles (HARMs) and laser- guided rocket systems;
• 35,000+ grenade launchers and small arms;
• communications, radar, and intelligence equipment; and
• training, maintenance, and sustainment.
(What's NOT on that list? Aircraft. What's the US doctrine way of winning a war, such as OIF? Air power.)
Edit: Do you think no aircraft because they'd have to use US trained pilots?
Now I've got 2 persapectives here. There is "largest weapons cache and standing military in the history of humanity" from pyvpx and there is this rather smaller list from yourself. I'm inclined to go with your list - I don't think the US is in a position to deploy the largest weapons cache in the history of humanity.
The evidence we have is that the US is broke and only capable of bullying people with this rather less impressive list of ad-hoc assembled gear with no air support. Which is not nothing, but has observably failed to turn back the Russians. They don't have the industrial or financial foundations to project do-what-I-say strength overseas any more against larger economies like Russia.
It is pretty obvious they don't have that capability, or they'd have used it.
We're all lucky that the US hasn't dropped the hammer on Russia. A hot war between two major nuclear powers wouldn't / won't end well for anyone.
call me when you can trade and refine oil purely in bitcoin. no one accepting bitcoin to buy things is holding that bitcoin.
I beg every blockchain as money people to please, please obsess over monetary theory first!!
So the US controls those international settlement rails, what does it do with that power to control BTC? Like I said, they can lean on governments, but those governments don't really have the power to ban it internally, so what can it really do with that leverage?
People can play around with derivatives all they want, there's nothing wrong with that. But to even call these a bitcoin ETF is disingenuous at best. All this is is a new fiat money with a "bitcoin" sticker slapped in the box.
Except that it can with an update