The stock price has been lackluster unfortunately. I’m not sure as to why.
1. Growth rate slowed such that valuations had to come down (went from inevitable overtaking of Salesforce in size, to decades of growth required)
2. Environment -- Cashflow negative meaning another raise was required without fiscal controls and in a high interest environment that's really tough. A return to office end of covid anxiety meant the Covid bubbled stocks are returning to mean. (eg compare zoom has done relatively similar over past 5 yrs)
3. IMO a few execs were absurdly over compensated whilst investor pressure against dillution was targeted to rank and file employees. eg: Eyal Manor earned a reported $42M in compensation (and a $2.5M retention bonus that reading between the lines sounds like hush money), meanwhile ICs were often given below cost of living raises and no refreshers.
1-2 means outside investors had to lower the valuation and 3 meant a combination of dilution and morale hits.
Looks like Eyal's compensation was more like 9-10M?
He got 33M in stock grants in 2021
You’re both pretty much right it looks like he vested all the RSUs in one year so he while he took it all home in 2021 it had probably vested over 4 years, the first 3 when it wasn’t reflected as comp.
1. People build software differently now. There's not as much reliance on text messages (fewer phone apps build built, 2fa via phone is considered dangerous, etc)
2. Gig economy is stabilizing. There was a huge increase in new companies for years, but at this point it feels like we've stalled on new innovations in that space (while a lot of VC-subsidized ones have faded out)
3. There's way more regulations on spam (good for us, bad for Twilio). I think Twilio did as good a job of avoiding spam as anyone could reasonably expect, but the barrier to entry to using Twilio for even reasonable projects now involves the government. Plus with the crackdown on spam (good!), a portion of their business has likely been affected.
Meanwhile, a short code would run you $4500 for three months (IIRC, memory is fuzzy, and it's probably changed), and you had to go through an approval process with all the mobile carriers (that is, Verizon, T-Mobile, etc. had to individually approve the short code) where you explained your use case and promised not to spam.
(Obviously things are different now with the campaign registration and approvals requires even for long code numbers. But short codes are still harder to get, and the approvals more rigorous.)
The company was founded almost 20 years ago, and went public in 2016..and they are still needing to raise money?
I mean, this isn't a capital intensive space, right? What's the deal?
Software isn’t capital intensive the way a large industrial factory would be, but it still has unfavorable financial conditions that require raising. You can’t sell software until you’ve built it, so you have to incur a large employee/R&D expense for years until the product is ready. And of course none of that is IP that you can just get a loan against (unlike say, building a factory).
It’s funny to contrast that with the video game publishers. They’ll push to sell things that aren’t even close to finished, make bank, and do it again and again.
https://investors.twilio.com/news/news-details/2023/AWS-and-...
I also had a really annoying experience with Sendgrid post acquisition. I'd used Sendgrid for my first company (as in I personally made the purchase, implemented the apis, and for a long time, was the sole and then admin account). I went to use it for my next company pre website launch and they froze my new account and their customer service was a pita. To be fair, the site wasn't up, but I needed the ability to send emails to publish the site (it's a crucial part of new account flow.) They wouldn't allow me to use sendgrid even though I was happy to share my linkedin, my previous history with their company, etc. We're happy sendinblue customers.
One of the worse CustomerService for SaaS Provider.
One can continuously grow a stock if they reduce the shares outstanding.
That being said iirc buy backs have notoriously all gone to executives. Essentially they buy back, and then award themselves options to re-dilute, but cannot readily find a source for that. So maybe incorrect.
The business might pay the executive with stock per the board approved compensation package, but a CEO does not wake up and say “I want to give myself 5M shares so let’s do a 5M share buyback”.
A buyback benefits all shareholders equally by reducing supply of the stock and therefore increasing its price.
correct. Hence my wording
> and then award themselves options to re-dilute
It's not that executives receive the bought back stock, but that their stock based compensation plans result in no net decrease in the amount of outstanding shares.
After mid-2021, that $400+ stock price started looking a little silly. And the broader market downturn in 2022 hit Twilio even harder than it hit the broader market.
And, meanwhile, Twilio's growth numbers -- while still being an unprofitable company! -- look worse than they did at the beginning of 2020. $75 might be generous for how the company is actually doing.
(Full disclosure: former employee for ~10 years, and I still have a few shares left.)
Stagnant revenue and declining free cash flow means that the company doesn't have many tools in the toolbox to be valued higher.
They play in both market categories, they sell it at higher margins with twilio brand.
Then sell it again, at lower prices from more regional less known brands.
[0] https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/09/25/microsoft-declares...
AWS (and presumably Google) also provides a suite of telephony services with Chime, SNS, Connect, etc. I assume the strategy now is to sell to/merge with a smaller CSP to provide a competitive portfolio of services.