Ask PG: Has Hollywood actually peaked?

According to http://www.the-numbers.com/market/ the MPAAs' revenue in 2011 was $10.2 billion which is greater than 13 of the past 17 years. While tickets have gone down 18% from the peak in 2002 at 1.58 billion/year it seems to be plateauing rather than falling. Furthermore, revenue has gone up by 10% from that 'peak' time.

In contrast, the RIAA had a peak in 1999 with $14.6 billion and fell 47.5% to $7.7 billion in 2009. (http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20100611/0203309776.shtml) Therefore, it seems like the RIAA is actually the one that is depending on law to try to save its revenue, not the MPAA. My bet is that the MPAA is simply afraid that it will become the next RIAA and is therefore going the same way. The difference is that, currently, the MPAA's revenue is not falling significantly and therefore does not depend on the law in the same way that the RIAA does.

In conclusion, Paul Graham says, "Kill Hollywood," but I think that "Kill the RIAA" is more appropriate.