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Comment by mewpmewp2 | Hacker News Reader

Someone offering that bet though would also alter the odds though. Because why would someone offer such a ridiculous bet after you've told your name, unless they had special information about your name? Although it being a possible YouTube prank channel would make it also possible that you actually have a chance to win for the reactions.

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This is part of a very important principle: if someone approaches you about something, you should be far more suspicious than if you had randomly picked someone off the street.

The most well known application of this is teaching kids to ask a random shopkeeper for help if they get lost, but to not get in a stranger's car when offered a lift.

> One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider.

(Guys and Dolls)

Also good advice for dating!

If an attractive lady walks up to me at a party, first thing I'm doing is asking for references.

My dude…

This must come up a lot.

About as often as you'd expect.

This also applies to self defense. If someone has targeted you, the odds of you beating them in a fight is different than the odds you can take on a random person, or a random thief even

Better or worse odds for you?

I would put the odds of Mark Xu’s license having that name on it at about 15%. Because Mark is probably an anglicised asian name.

Not to mention that many Chinese immigrants will give their children European names.

In that case the license will match?

The question is are you using the name on your drivers license, which is probably the one on your birth certificate.

The OP covers this a bit as well:

> 20 coin tosses (by me) all coming up Tails. YES

> If you tossed the coins then the first answer would be NO, unless I'm very confident you lack the ability to fool me …

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