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For a 10 year bet, that's a fair point.

Tangentially, over the course of an individual investor's working years, I think this shows that the S&P 500 is pretty good, if paired with appropriate bond allocation as your move towards retirement.

Just curious, would you have to adjust the values for inflation with these numbers?

i.e. to compute the percent of starting years for which 10 years of holding the S&P 500 would underperform 36.3% (the average of the 5 hedge fund-of-funds)?

Your graph does not show the real return of the SP500, as it does not include dividends.

What if hedge funds would lose even more in those periods?