Yeah, again, not how things works. Neither financially, nor the technology itself, nor the craft of film production. Not to be a party pooper, but the landscape will still look mostly the same in 5 years.
Yeah, again, not how things works. Neither financially, nor the technology itself, nor the craft of film production. Not to be a party pooper, but the landscape will still look mostly the same in 5 years.
AI is maturing fast. It's already on some people's smartphones.
0: https://wiki.blender.org/wiki/Reference/Release_Notes/4.0/
Generative AI is already powerful enough to replace big studios for short skits on YouTube. But a full length cinema-quality movie is a totally different ball game.
That all said, I definitely don’t think it will take 20 years to get there either. I do agree that the field is moving fast.
But seriously, the edge research is already ready to put an end to animation for good. Classic Disney animation -- that's 100% done as of right now. Today. It's about to be productized.
It won't be long until we have photorealism too.
Please don't be like this. You're more useful to the world if you forget everything you know and start dreaming again.
Maybe one day in the future, movies become a bit more like gaming. Kind of like "holo-novels" in Star Trek, where the story does adapt to suit the individual.
This isn't going to happen in the next 10 years though. Even technology aside, the various Hollywood unions wouldn't allow it.
If you look at the last big shift in the way society consumed content (from CDs to streaming) it took decades from the invention of Napster before anything like Spotify was successful. And that wasn't because the general public was slow to adopt. It was purely because distributors dragged their heals.
As I said, YouTube quality is already there. But cinema quality still requires VFX people because gen AI hallucinates a lot of weird stuff like 7 fingers on a hand.
You need to think of gen AI like self driving cars. We’ve had semi-autonomous cars for years already but they’re still unsafe to be fully self driving. You still need a human to make corrections. And the same is true for gen AI.
Until the acceptance ratio improves drastically, gen AI is not going to replace Disney.