How to get rich in the 21st century
economist.com
economist.com
China's (12.7) and India's (2.4) GDP per capita are very low compared with South Korea's (32.4) or Japan's (33.8). The average Chinese or Indian citizen is relatively poor compared with their peers in developed countries. Changing this requires long-term sustained growth, which is difficult to get right.
China is greatly challenged by its demography and super-power ambitions with stagnating growth. India's problems have much to do with bureaucracy and lack of infrastructure, but it has shown robust growth in recent years. However, as difficult as India's problems are, China's demographic outlook and its political implications are nightmarish.
India is a marvelous country, but there's no way it will sustain 7%+ a year. Furthermore, it's much further away than other BRICS in GDP per Capita.
Let's be honest, China, even despite the recent economic turmoil, is the only country armed with the weapons needed to jump into the 20K+ GDP per Capita club soon.
China is more self-sufficient than most think. Examples:
Alibaba's international business is just 10%, rest is selling to Chinese.
BYD builds and sells more EVs than Tesla, mostly to Chinese people.
It's also heavily disciplined, low-crime rates etc.
Chinese kids with access to school end up studying a lot and it's incredible the amount of talent existing there. Just read AI publications, check the authors and you'll see what I mean.
Now, if you ask me whether China is a great country to live in, as it's not a democratic country and having a high GDP per Capita in such a system might not be so nice to live in, I agree. But if we are talking barely about income per Capita. It's China.
China isn't that bothered about the US as well. It can do business with every other country. It has great relationships with Europe.
And furthermore, it has the biggest growing consumer base in the world. Not even American businesses want to stay out of that market.
Not saying China will ever surpass America in living standards or economics this century, but it has lots of potential to be extremely powerful.
China is in for the long game.
In around 20-30 years, India will be in a similar state, trying to avoid the middle-income trap, but that will take sometime. We still have to wait and see.
They indeed import most of their energy and food stuffs. Like any big exporter, see Germany for instance. Really similar, just different consuming power.
For the housing bubble, it's part of planned development. It isn't as bad as a housing bubble in the US, as the government from China isn't democratic. The Chinese government can easily use its authority to tell the average Chinese to eat it up.
Also Germany is an interesting comparison since their population is _also_ in freefall and their are looking down the barrel of a major demographic crisis.
And as for China not being democratic, the Chinese government is still very much in the hook for keeping people happy. Just look at what happened with the Covid restrictions when the population eventually had enough. The question is how bad it's gonna get next time around
In theory, so could the US government. It has done exactly that before on a smaller scale. It would do it for housing too if it were deemed a good solution to the problem. I expect what you are implying is that Americans lack confidence in that being a good solution to something on a grandiose scale, like the housing situation, to see it though? That is something that appears to be true.
But then why would the Chinese people have that confidence? The authority can tell anything it wants, but without the confidence of the people it isn't going to go anywhere.
[1] https://www.baltimoresun.com/1992/03/08/us-middle-class-shra... | https://archive.is/hgtpq
So the lower class is tricked (conspiratorially or otherwise) into fighting for wealth redistribution to NOT happen.
I don't get it, apart from certain return for if the child did genuinely 'earn it' through caring for parents in old age etc.
We need to end this divine-right thinking, IMO.
I think it's the perfect place to get tax rev (it's the tax that is furthest away from 'units of work' that I can think of. Far better than getting it from an income tax). I.e. it is the tax that penalises people the least for creating value.
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I guess my current position is that
1. It is poor economic policy not to go heavy on inheritance tax (as far as emigration of the upper class remains inelastic), and
2. People claiming their relatives' estates is not compelling to me (but I am open to being compelled)
You paid taxes all your life. Your descendants are going to be paying taxes for the new assets.
OP saying not to worry, its just a problem if you receive more than 1kk, well in 100 years with inflation i bet this will be a problem for everybody.
But these get reviewed and adjusted often, so the assumption that inflation would impact this is a bit premature.
> You should have the right to gift whatever you want to your descendants, and the general public should have no cut from your hard work and the decision not to consume it all. > You paid taxes all your life. Your descendants are going to be paying taxes for the new assets.
Yes that's the problem - This is not at all compelling to me, and vice versa I am not compelling to you. I feel that your side needs to be extra compelling too, so as to prove that it is better to take from another tax than from inheritance tax.
It is very much in my interest for me to be convinced by you. I want to believe :)
My original comment on this is related to punishing the savers that accumulated that capital, i can't fathom that.
If you like to pay takes and are looking forward to pay more, there's nothing i can add to convince you.
> So my parents gift me money in their will, and I am owed it somehow because I share genes?
What is your take on inheritance? I understood that you think that it should not be allowed? You called a divine right! Should the gvmt have your assets? If not who?
I think that my inheritance should be a heavily progressively taxed, yes. Divine right is part of it, but I of course acknowledge that people often have 'earnt' the inheritance they receive.
> If you like to pay takes and are looking forward to pay more, there's nothing i can add to convince you.
I don't like it :) But I think it's the right thing. Although - Yes I completely agree that governments are wasteful, and I would endorse anyone that engages in tax evasion and gives the diff to 'charity'. I am also a conscientious observer and struggle with defence spending in particular. In my eye that's really a part of conservative-socialist positioning though, rather than where to get the tax revenue from.
> My original comment on this is related to punishing the savers that accumulated that capital, i can't fathom that.
Completely appreciate that issue yes - My argument essentially is incentivising people to spend their money before they die, and asking them to strike the exact right balance against retaining appropriate emergency funds until then. (Partly why I say progressive tax rather than outright confiscation though, FWIW).
> I think that gvmt's are wasteful and i just don't like to pay high taxes because i had $0 20 years ago. In this particular situation its even worse because it's double taxation.
I would rather they took your money from your inheritance, than taking it from your weekly wages. I don't want you to be penalised for working and creating value. I would prefer $0 inheritance tax to $1 inheritance tax... But I would choose inheritance tax over income tax. <-- That's the crux of it really. I'm not pro inheritance tax. I just think it's the best place to take people's money from, the place that least penalises people for good deeds (other than tax revenue through fines. Then I would argue that sales taxes are a better revenue collection method than income tax partly for the same reason. But we still need all of these taxes in place, I would just rebalance to incentivise production amongst other things.).
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I appreciate you humouring me on this with the principle of charity and the spirit of debate here!