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Comment by elliotec | Hacker News Reader

I don’t think so.

> As of 2023, approximately 44 million Americans carry student loan debt, with the total student loan debt in the United States reaching $1.76 trillion according to the Federal Reserve. This figure includes both federal and private student loans. It's notable that the number of people with federal student loans is around 43.4 million, and there are about 3.5 million private student loan borrowers, leading to a total of around 46.9 million American adults with a student loan. The average student loan debt in the United States as of 2023 is approximately $37,645 per borrower. This figure represents the average amount owed by those carrying federal student loan debt

https://www.studentloanplanner.com/student-loan-debt-statist...

https://www.finder.com/student-loan-debt-statistics

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I held a similar level of student loan debt, and it was worth it. My earnings are much larger thanks to the degree it enabled me to pursue, and I was able to pay it off early. While I don't think the system is ideal, just the existence of student debt isn't indicative of an issue, we'd need to look at statistics around what proportion of borrowers have undue hardship as a result.

Personally I don’t think it’s ideal that people who are going into less lucrative but still incredibly important societal roles should have to give up the ability to have basic needs like stable housing met because the cost of getting into those roles preclude the ability to meet basic needs.

I am not sure if you're in agreement or not, but yes, loans help access things that cost money (like basic needs) in the case that earnings are deferred due to education. Student loans generally require no payments until 6 months after education ends.

Right but it’s also debt that doesn’t need to be incurred, which puts people way behind the starting line, especially when the student loans come due and people can’t afford to pay for a house

Doing things like making it so student debt isn’t dischargeable in bankruptcy effectively creates a market for more credit than would exist otherwise. Student debt should at least be held to the same standards as regular debt.

I think those figures support the GP's "small, vocal minority" argument. Assuming students carry their debt for 45 years (across their earning lifetime -- my gf and her ex both carry student debt in their 50s) that's only 1 MM students per annum, which is 5-6% of the number of students any given year. And most of them aren't complaining.

Working for an international company has really opened my eyes. It's actually fucking insane that someone could be paying off school in their 50s. The cast majority of European schools are in the single digit thousands per semester. The US needs to immediately allow tuition to be discharged in bankruptcy which would at least fix some of the copious problems with our higher education system.

I wonder if the 5-6% is an accurate estimate.

Some back-of-the-envelope math:

- K-12 enrollment in 2021 was 49.4MM [1]

- Assuming even distribution across 13 grades, that's 3.8MM / academic year.

- 1MM ~= 25%, though if one factors in that drop-outs increase as years advance, this is conservative.

[1] https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=372#PK12-enroll...

[edit] formatting

>Assuming students carry their debt for 45 years

I don't think that's common. I especially don't think it was common ~45 years ago.

It's a totally bonkers assumption. If it was true, it seems to support a slightly different version of the same point. A 45 year loan on education doesn't seem like the result of a successful system.

Well my n is small. Tenured faculty at Stanford, still paying after 30 y and unlikely to pay off in next decade (note: not in CS, Economics, or business which pay the big bucks). Have heard other faculty discuss this at dinner parties too.

I graduated 35 years ago and back then was able to pay my MIT tuition by consulting over the summer + January. CS of course during the AI boom. Doubt that’s possible today.

I think the financing of education in the US is absurd and broken, but there is some logic to spreading the financing of an asset over the lifetime of the asset.

I'd estimate that the lifetime of a house is generally longer than the "useful lifetime" of an education. House financing, as far as I've seen, rarely exceeds 30 years. There are probably outliers, just like in education financing.

I don't see how ~50% of college graduates currently being in debt for their education is a small minority.

I don't know how you got your number but your math seems deeply flawed...

Student loan debt lasts longer than mortgages?

That average is the mean (we can tell because it roughly equals $1.76 trillion divided by 46.9 million borrowers).

The mean is notorious for being affected by outliers, that is, the few borrowers like doctors who owe tremendous sums. (As GP says, "the nightmare stories you hear are about the small, vocal minority")

If 90% of borrowers only owed $10k each, and the other 10% owed 210k each, the average would be $30k per borrower.

In fact, if 90% of borrowers only owed 1k each, and 10% owed 300k each, the average would still be over $30k.

Edit: According to the census, the median student loan debt is slightly under $20k, which certainly seems like an amount that people can pay off.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/08/student-debt-...

The median amount of education debt in 2021 among those with any outstanding debt for their own education was between $20,000 and $24,999. This reflects the central tendency of student loan debts, providing a perspective less influenced by extreme high or low values compared to the average debt amount.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2022-economic-we...

Yeah, I just added a similar figure to my post.

To me, that seems consistent with "very little debt" as discussed above. It's less than the cost of an economy car, for an education that increases average lifetime earnings by over a million dollars.

That's the current debt load, not the debt load graduated with nor the amount that will end up paid over the lifetime of the debt.

Even so, calling a 5 figure debt load "very little" is flat out ridiculous.

It's a few percent of the million dollars or more that a good education is worth.

Very little indeed.

$25,000 is basically nothing compared to the extra earning potential of the degree. It's less than a lot of cars. A good saver could pay it off in under 5 years without noticing a decrease in lifestyle.

Oh good. Glad you make enough money to view 25k as such a measley sum. Most people don't and this median debt load already mostly excludes people like you who payed off thir debt in 5 years.

It so funny that you guys are so quick to point out the difference between media and mean when it serves your world view but completely ignore all the other statistical factors. Like comparing q lifetime average earnings of all college graduates aganist the median debt load of those who still have debt. Rich people don't leave college with as much debt and don't hold it as long. Not all degrees pay equally so people with lower paying degrees will be disproportionately represented in that data set.

I know many college graduates for whom even making minimum payments on a 25k debt would significantly impact their quality of life.

You don't have to feel guilty for your privilege, but don't let it blind you to reality.

> Not all degrees pay equally so people with lower paying degrees will be disproportionately represented in that data set.

This is true. A degree that doesn't increase earnings by at least $1/hour (enough to cover the payments on a $25k student loan), is a financial mistake.

If someone spends four years doing what they love and not working, without a care for what will happen afterwards, they should expect it to significantly impact their quality of life afterwards. Being able to do that at all is quite a privilege.

I come from a working class family in which most people didn't go to college, so I don't forget what a privilege it was to be able to go to college nor how valuable a well chosen education is.

> This is true. A degree that doesn't increase earnings by at least $1/hour (enough to cover the payments on a $25k student loan), is a financial mistake.

1$ per hour seems on the far low end to cover that much debt. Also, the 25k number isn't the amount that was owed at graduation, but rather still owed some number of years into the repayment term so the actuall monthly payment is likely even higher.

Additionally, many of the lower paying jobs are still ones that we need as a society. While everyone picking lucrative degrees is good for them, it would be bad for us as a society.

Even so, I'm not disputing that the vast majority do pay for themselves in time. I'm saying that financial burdens imposed by student loan are significant. I would also posit that this repayment can hamper the ability for people to make other investments that improve their productivity and long term earning potential. Instead of the financial safety net enjoyed by the more well off, it does the opposite and increases risks.

It's very little. You can easily pay that off in a few years.

Average? Mean? Median?

Average, eg mean.

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