> The appropriate layman's forecast of a recession within the next year is something like a constant 11 %. I'm willing to bet this outperforms most "predictions" out there.

I think we agree here but the unspoken measure is the amount of uncertainty in each forecast. This is still a very inaccurate prediction compared to the collision detection system which nearly always gets it right.

You hit the nail on the head in your last paragraph. Doing something useful doesn’t require an accurate prediction. I agree entirely that assigning an appropriate cost function and responding accordingly guides you to useful actions.

Edit: Just discovered your blog through your profile. The topics look super relevant to my interests. Thank you for sharing your thoughts online, I’m looking forward to reading them!