The U.S. government should be concerned. The U.S. tax base could very well implode with outsourcing, ai, and offshoring in the next 10 years.
One end game may well be that a lot of people who are today "product managers" will use increasingly capable AI assistants to "create software" without writing much, if any, code. But in that world, I think a lot of people who are today "programmers" will also be very well suited to creating software in that way, and will have no trouble transitioning into those roles if that's where the opportunities are.
If you prevent talent from coming to the US, companies will follow the talent.
This is why American cybersecurity and networking has almost entirely been outsourced to Israel and India and chip manufacturing to Taiwan and South Korea.
It’s really a sign of how weak the U.S. government has become, which is heartbreaking. US has found it too expensive to invest in its own citizens. It’s almost a ticking time bomb.
Financing the Abraham Accords [0], using American engines in tanks [1], American fighter jet engines in Indian fighter jets [2], and being a part of 2 bilateral treaty organizations [3][4] absolutely puts India in the US Sphere of Influence.
> has not even voted to condemn Russia
India will never piss off Russia, because India doesn't want Russia to join the Chinese camp [5]. By keeping trade and defense ties with Russia, India minimizes the chances of Russia becoming pro-China instead of neutral during an India-China war (which almost happened in 2020) [6].
Mistreatment of Indian students in Ukraine during the war made a vote in favor of Ukraine politically untenable during election season [7]
[0] - https://www.axios.com/2023/09/07/saudi-india-uae-us-railway-...
[1] - https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/ameri...
[2] - https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/why-ge-pl...
[3] - https://www.state.gov/i2u2/
[4] - https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...
[5] - https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/11/06/india-in-emerging-w...
[6] - https://theprint.in/defence/nearing-breaking-point-gen-narav...
[7] - https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/ukraine-crisis-stra...
Any development in a country that has not washed its hands of Russia should be illegal for selling in the us.
In addition, the recent argument with Canada over the killing over a citizen on Canadian soil comes into play here. That is not what s country under western influence does.
I'm American.
> are going to buy Russian oil and not side with the us (sic) in Ukraine
Well,
1. That oil goes to the EU. If there's a buyer, there's going to be a seller [0]
2. It's at margins barely above the cost to extract, which is as big a financial hit you make make [1]
3. As pointed above, China is the bigger bad to India instead of Russia. It's better to keep countries neutral in a future India-China war
> Any development in a country that has not washed its hands of Russia should be illegal for selling in the us.
Thank god you don't work at the State Department. That's how you alienate every country that isn't in North America and Europe.
China would have the pick of the litter.
[0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-27/europe-is...
[1] - https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/revenues-russias...
However, the us is operating from weakness here which is not okay and the situation should have never been allowed to develop to this point. Ironically it may be outsourcing and offshoring in the first place that led us here.
US critical infrastructure development should not be outsourced to countries who have any contact with countries that are we are in a proxy war with.
[0] https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/1751o2e/comment/k4dr... [1] https://www.reddit.com/r/NoStupidQuestions/comments/xssv8o/c...
India is nearly unassailable. Nobody can really conquer a country of 1 billion people anyway, economically they have the size (and therefore power) to be independent-minded, and geographically there is no neighbor that is now a serious threat: China can bicker and skirmish but would have to cross the Himalayas to fight a war, which is impossible. Pakistan has nuclear weapons, but those are useless other than to deter an existential attack by India - using them would be suicide. Bangladesh lacks economic, political, and military power. Others are too small.
India doesn't need to be in the US 'sphere' and serve US interests.
Let that sink in.
I'd be shocked if China isn't assassinating people too. They definitely have established "police stations" here and are conducting operations against dissidents and their families, but maybe it hasn't crossed into actual murder. If it has, the US and Canada aren't talking about it; they're barely talking about, or doing anything about, the secret police stations.
I've clearly missed something here. Where can I learn more about what you're referencing here, or what Google search would point me in the right direction?
Here’s the first hit for “India assassinate Canada” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/canada/india-assass...
I never read Roman history beyond 6th and 7th grade history and AoE 1's campaigns, but I think Roman analogies would make it easier to drive my point to a couple people.
The reality is that if you work on a banking product for instance you might find an exploit you can use and keep secret and use to your countries benefit. That’s why these positions need clearance controls.
Even a benign program like a text editor could have a back door installed to spy on the us.
I am curious to hear your thoughts. Thanks.
There's no possible way to decouple without reversing 30 years of development.
The only solution is to justify to Israel and India why they should continue to align to the US, instead of hacking it on their own.
This justification comes from the carrot (FDI, IP Transfers) and the stick (bad press, cultivating alternative allies, tarriffs)
The era of Hyperpower is over. Regional Powers have returned.
The US Policy world has recognized this for a decade and is operating under those assumptions. The issue is the type of person who gets their news from CNN, Fox, Reddit, Zeihan, Telegram, etc isn't exactly the kind to read policy papers or watch C-SPAN
> Even a benign program like a text editor could have a back door installed to spy on the us.
It goes both ways. Meta is an American company with development done in the US. Everyone uses WhatsApp at the senior levels outside of North America. Everyone other than China uses Google as their primary search engine. Everyone uses MS or Apple as their primary OS
I also think that in sourcing is an investment in the us citizen, something that all companies operating in the us should be obliged to do.
Our problem doesn't really seem like a lack of encouragement for immigration. We have plenty of people trying to come here, we either don't want the people attempting to come or don't want immigration at scale at all.
Social programs and entitlements are really all the encouragement needed for immigration, as long as you're legally allowed to immigrate and get a job at all. Is the question really how do we encourage the "right" kind of immigrants for the skills or roles we want to expand?
Remove a decade long backlog for Indian nationals coming to work in Skilled fields (STEM, Accounting, Healthcare, Finance, Law) by speeding up processing times by hiring more bodies at USCIS Processing Centers.
And also maybe not forcing every Chinese national who studied STEM in China to go through enhanced background checks [0].
And also hiring more immigration judges (I knew a former Immigration Judge with the DHS - they de facto had a hiring freeze since the 2010s, leading to case backlogs).
Tl;dr - stop defunding the DHS and USCIS
[0] - https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/06/04/2020-12...
The incentives exist, we just need to get out of peoples' way and let people immigrate here.
Alternatively, we could alter the statue of liberty and remove the poem if we collectively don't want to welcome immigrants of all skills and situations.
Skilled Immigration is already encouraged by the salary bump.
The issue is skilled immigration has been backlogged, as the existing system hasn't been reformed since the 2000s.
It's the backlog that pushed Chinese, South Korean, Taiwanese, and now Indian immigrants to consider staying put instead of spending 5-10 years living under the fact that you might be asked to leave in 60 days.
0 - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/v...
Our system would indeed implode if many went unemployed. Companies would go down with it though, they need people employed so they can spend money and keep the gears of capitalism turning.
I know I sound very cynical here but I don't even mean it as a bad thing. Its just the way this works, for anyone looking to down vote a cynical sounding take I'd be really interested to hear what I might be misrepresenting.
Not saying those aren't real jobs (many certainly are), but I think the scope & number of those jobs can be expanded to fill the void left by more "productive" / "survival" jobs.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/spacex-m...
Companies have been quick to cut DEI jobs as soon as the outside political pressure died down.
https://nypost.com/2023/12/28/tech/google-meta-other-tech-gi...
The military has been cutting personnel. The number of divisions has gone down. Higher military spending has been going towards procurement programs, not towards more uniformed jobs (although some defense contractors have expanded a bit).
Companies will absolutely continue paying large numbers of employees to do unnecessary jobs, they're incentivized to do so. A growing company is often seen as a good sign by shareholders and no one can really tell whether the new roles are any more or less productive. Existing employees and managers have the benefit of growing teams and getting promoted before anyone sees if the teams over-hired. Holding expendable positions also has the benefit of making for an easy layoff when investors get spooked.
Meaning the company and employees have good reason to hire and keep unnecessary jobs, don't have many short-term downsides as long as it doesn't directly cause a drop in key metrics, and have a built-in backup plan when things turn south and they can show good leadership by trimming the fat.