BYD Overtakes Tesla as Most Popular EV Maker | Hacker News Reader

BYD Overtakes Tesla as Most Popular EV Maker

bloomberg.com

59 pointsokasaki87 comments

I really wish there were affordable (sub $35k BEFORE rebate) EVs in the US.

The lack of affordable daily driver EVs is what's slowing down adoption here in the US.

Hell, even in Vietnam and India there are fleets of low cost EVs now.

Addendum:

an EV costs as much as a the median salary in the US in 2023 [0] ($50,000 is the Median wage, and the average transaction price for an EV is $53,000 [1])

[0] - https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat39.htm

[1] - https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/how-much-electric-car-cost/

I wish the same for Europe, cheapest EV is the Dacia Spring but it’s like a matchbox.

True! On the other hand, my parents have a used Sandero and it's fine. It's not "much car", but it's a car and it will get you from A to B, but not much more. If you really think about it, it's mindblowing just how much of empty space we carry around with cars.

I don't think about it. The more energy is wasted unnecessarily, the more my social status rises.

Prices are inching down slowly. The Citroen e-c3 is due in 2024 and the price for that is apparently targeted as £21k. MG4 is out now for £26k. 199 and 217 WLTP miles range respectively (and the MG4 is more of a VW Golf/Nissan Leaf sized and equipped car, and receiving very positive reviews from press)

That is pretty amazing really considering not long ago 200 miles range was only available in Teslas and which were priced as luxury cars, compared to early nissan leafs and e-golfs that would only get you 70-80 miles tops (...and let's not even start on the g-Wiz!)

Give it a couple more years and I fully expect 150-200 mile cars for the mid-low teens (GBP), which is roughly equivalent to normal ICE prices now (e.g. non-EV version of Citroen C3 is £14k)

I have a friend with an MG4 and it's great value. The interior is spartan (seems to be the primary way electric cars save money!) but it's not that much more expensive than an equivalent petrol car - definitely cheaper when you factor fuel costs.

The UK government recently pushed back banning ICE car sales by 5 years, but I checked the adoption curves in Scandinavia (who are a few years ahead of most of the world) and basically it doesn't matter because by 2030 (the original target) almost all car sales in the UK will be electric anyway, irrespective of a ban.

How times have changed. What you consider a matchbox is a normal vehicle that's trying to pass for a SUV...

Energy wise, better a matchbox than a tank

Chevy Bolt is 27k.

Mini Cooper SE starts at 31k.

The Bolt was discontinued and hasn't been restarted yet.

The Mini Cooper SE is also being discontinued.

https://www.chevrolet.com/electric/bolt-ev

looks like bolt is still here

Discontinued doesn't mean unavailable. I thought it was cancelled as well and took a look at Wikipedia. According to that source there will be a new model at some indeterminate point in the future.

There is no production line for the current generation bolts. They're building a production line for a new architecture (MY2025+), but there are some significant changes to that design that many people might consider negative (e.g. lack of Android Auto/carplay) alongside the standard risks of buying a first generation architecture.

Your comments seem to be non-sequiturs to me. You stated "The lack of affordable daily driver EVs is what's slowing down adoption here in the US."

So why do you think the two most affordable EV options in the US were discontinued? I don't think it's because they were flying out of the showrooms.

There's also Leaf, and here again it's ignored like it never existed.

I suspect what these people actually wants is 2024 Mediocrity, which Leaf, Bolt, Mini Cooper, etc., are not as they're all hatchbacks, which isn't the mentally defaultest style of a automobile, but Tesla is.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediocrity_(advertising_campai...

It was discontinued because it turns out that affordable EVs aren’t actually what Americans want.

tata nexon at $20k

> The lack of affordable daily driver EVs is what's slowing down adoption here in the US. Hell, even in Vietnam and India there are fleets of low cost EVs now.

Hard disagree. First off, the top selling "cars" in the US are all trucks and SUVs. It seems pretty clear "an affordable daily driver" is not really what US drivers want, and attempts to make these have all turned in to big money losers in the US, save perhaps the Model X (which is still not affordable by your definition).

The comparison to Vietnam and India feels like an apples to oranges comparison. Many of those vehicles are along the lines of "electric auto-rickshaw with a shell" and would be wholly unsuitable for the US market, not to mention US roads.

To be clear, I'm not psyched that everyone in the US seems to prefer a mini-tank, but lack of "small daily drivers" is definitely not what is holding back US EV sales.

> Many of those vehicles are along the lines of "electric auto-rickshaw with a shell"

Ever ridden in a BYD, MG, Vinfast, Nexon, or an IONIQ?

To people who aren't car enthusiasts (aka the majority), those cars have a better form factor than the equivalent Toyota, Hyundai, Suzuki, or Mitsubishi that people would normally buy.

> but lack of "small daily drivers" is definitely not what is holding back US EV sales

It isn't. It's the fact that an EV costs as much as a the median salary in the US in 2023 [0] ($50,000 is the Median wage, and the average transaction price for an EV is $53,000 [1])

> pretty clear "an affordable daily driver" is not really what US drivers want

The overwhelming majority of car sales in America are used, not new [2]. The average used car sells for around $26k [3] compared to $48k for new [4]

That implies that affordability takes the front seat in most purchasing decisions.

[0] - https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat39.htm

[1] - https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/how-much-electric-car-cost/

[2] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/183713/value-of-us-passe...

[3] - https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-used-vehicle-price-fall...

[4] - https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/buying-a-car/people-spe...

Again, your comparisons just totally ignore the reality of the US market. You might as well say "I wish car companies would be willing to sell all their vehicles at a loss."

To be clear, I wish it were different. I owned a 2015 Volt, and I loved (still love) that car, and I think it would be the perfect vehicle for most people. I get 35-40 miles of electric range, which for me means a round trip to work plus 1 "errand" trip. The benefits were I never had to worry about range anxiety (I'd frequently use all of 0.1 miles of gas if I went over electric range during the day), I never needed to special charger at home (it would charge overnight on a normal US outlet), and for long trips I didn't have to worry at all about "charger anxiety" because it would just switch over to gas.

And what happened? The Volt was always a money loser for GM, despite most owners loving the car. It was a huge lesson to me that (a) marketing is hugely important in the car industry, and (b) most people's car purchases are basically emotional decisions. It doesn't matter how "practical" your car is, many people essentially see their car as an extension of their identity.

Again, I wish it weren't this way in the US, but pretending it's not doesn't do anyone any good.

I am in the US market. I was an active car buyer before I decided against it,

I and my peers (30 and younger) just aren't buying new or even used cars due to financial reasons, let alone EVs.

The capital outlay on a new car, let alone an EV is too high when factoring incomes, and alternatives.

And these are peers of mine in VC, Finance, Engineering Management, L7+ engineers. For our friends who are doing average jobs the affordability crisis is even worse.

Exactly. Your argument boils down to "I'm the worst demographic for a car company, but I want them to make money-losing vehicles for me."

We are all buyers in the top 1-5% of Incomes in the US.

If it is increasingly unaffordable for high earners like us, then there is something fundamentally wrong.

And let's be honest, a sub-35k EV is a solved problem. BYD and similar companies sells in Australia, NZ, Central Europe, and Japan at a similar price point.

I agree that it would be nice to have sub 35k cars but I’m surprised people in the fields and levels you mentioned have to put off buying a car for financial reasons. When I first started working more than a decade ago I was making 60K and didn’t think twice about buying a 25K car. Multiply the numbers by 2 to adjust for inflation now and it should be similar.

> I’m surprised people in the fields and levels you mentioned have to put off buying a car for financial reasons

The monthly cost reaches $1k a month in 2023 (parking+interest+insurance).

We all can afford it, but the question is why spend $12k a year on transportation when Caltrain+BART+Muni+VTA and Uber come out for less.

> buying a 25K

The average new car in 2023 is $48k, and the average used is $26k. With used you end up paying more in insurance and get worse financing.

Ah yeah if you live in a big city served by public transportation, having a car becomes a luxury. I’m a suburb/rural guy so having a car is more of a necessity, but housing is cheaper and parking is free so the costs cancel out somewhat.

Yep.

Most of those high earning jobs are in the city and suburban areas, which makes car ownership a luxury.

Though, even in rural areas car ownership costs have become heavily unaffordable, now that average rent prices nationally are around $1400/mo compared to $700/mo a decade ago [0], while median salary in 2023 is at $4,000/mo (pre-tax)

[0] - https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtab11.xlsx

And yet sales volumes for the past several years have been near record levels. Regardless of incomes, consumers are buying those expensive vehicles. So, why would manufacturers waste resources on building cheaper models if they don't have to?

BYD in Japan? November figure for all BYD was 166. In contrast, Toyota sold about 100 cars short of 17k Yaris, in just Japan in that name and the month alone. Sub 35k is as solved as any cost of market entry problems are.

If you're really a 1-5% earner and cars seem unaffordable, you're really overspending elsewhere.

Giving big "throwaway" energy.

It does. And it's not just GP. Most praised EVs are sold at loss. Most criticized are sold at profit. Everyone can see winds changing on Tesla, guess what happened to them few quarters back.

There are many people in this country that will buy a 2 year old used car for just a few thousand under the new price because the majority of their lives they’ve been told buying new is a waste of money. My friend’s in-laws are like that and it drives him batty.

> it drives him batty.

Similar boat. My parents and I buy new, but then we keep using the car for 10-15 years.

It doesn't make sense financially to buy a used car and then upgrade to another used car in 4-5 years.

I drive a nice Mercedes sedan with AWD and a v6 engine, and I bought it with cash, used. Insurance is cheaper. With WFH I drive to meetings and for travel. It will last me ten more years. Last one I had got t-boned at an intersection with 230k miles on it. It's quiet, comfortable, and safe. The infotainment is laughably bad, so I have bluetooth on the aux input and nav and audio is from my phone. I hope not to buy another car until I can get a an under $30k EV that is equivalent in function and longevity. Putting more than that into a car feels to me like setting money on fire.

> It seems pretty clear "an affordable daily driver" is not really what US drivers want

I don't agree with this statement. Automakers continue to use the chip shortage of a couple years ago as an excuse to only manufacturer full-loaded cars of all types. I haven't seen a single base model new vehicle for sale at the dealership in years, ever since the chip shortage began (and is no longer a problem).

The US driver doesn't want anything in particular, I have no clue how you can characterize a market of 200 million people with that statement. Maybe rich people in the Bay Area "want" a full loaded Model S, but there are huge numbers of people in America that make a fraction of Tier-1 salaries. They still care about the environment and want a sub-30k car that has fewer features than a Tesla. It's unfair to toss their desires aside and claim that the market knows what the people want. It's like saying the American Macintosh user wants expensive Apple computers because Apple doesn't make a cheap computer.

The US auto industry is in a state of regulatory capture. They all operate in a coordinated manner to not undercut each other and sell cheap cars. They can all make more money as an industry if they just sell the most expensive possible car to the consumer, and convince them they got a great deal by offering 96-month car payments and inscrutable lease offers that end up scamming the consumer at every urn.

> Tier-1 salaries

Even at Tier 1 salaries it's unaffordable without parent's help.

I and my peers are 30 and younger, and work in VC, PE, IB, PM, SWE, Tech Sales, Dentists, Doctors, and other high salary jobs in the Bay Area, and even we don't want to buy cars (new, used, or EV) because the cost outlay is ridiculous, and could be better used to to save for buying a house or a condo or fully paying off student loans.

Yeah for sure, even more argument that Americans, wealthy and poor, want inexpensive EVs.

Yep. And the moment sales drop, then they say "Millenials/GenZ are shunning the American dream due to changing tastes", not because the cost ratio has become ridiculous,

> First off, the top selling "cars" in the US are all trucks and SUVs.

Still? Dealer lots are stuffed with overpriced, overpowered, pavement queen pickups.

Americans are in a arm race of buying bigger and bigger cars to transport themselves in

A tank is the safest vehicle for little Ada!

I disagree also, but for a different reason. People are justifiably put off by the lack of decent charging infrastructure in the U.S. for all but Tesla. Lot's of people want a car that is their daily driver that can also drive the kids to grandma's without a lot of hassle.

That plays a major role as well. It's usually 50% charging infrastructure and 50% cost.

A bold national initiative would be to require that any new or renovated parking space, public or private, include at least one power outlet dedicated to that space. Not necessarily a full charging station -- just a regular 120V/15A power outlet.

Everyone parks their car at night. If parking anywhere for eight hours meant getting another day of driving, then buying and operating an EV would be feasible for absolutely anyone. The market would sort out the rest.

Assumptions/facts: average new car price in 2023 is $35,000; Tesla Model 3 is $39,000; 1,800 watts from standard outlet; 300 watts/mile; average daily driving distance 37 miles; US EVs continue trend toward NACS plug adoption; Tesla continues buildout of fast-charging network for long-range driving.

I am interested in how you are seeing that working. Are you imagining neighbourhoods would maintain tens of thousands of street outlets and pay for the electricity too? Many people have to park on the street away from their houses, so how do you decide who to charge for it? Smart meters would be a disaster. Just another privatized rent seeking apparatus waiting to turn the screws, and if it public then our income taxes shelling out for private car owners yet again. I don't think city's own taxes are likely to afford such a network, depends on the city of course. But if we are talking about mass adoption then it has to work for poorer neighborhoods, such places struggle to keep the roads maintained let alone a charging network that covers every parking space.

Sorry I hope I am not being too dismissive, I am interested in if you have thought some of it through and have answers.

Municipalities used to pay for 100-200w street lamps on every lamppost.

If the world moves to sustainable energy, then we stop paying for the externalities of fossil-fuel usage, and we have a better chance at surviving the effects of climate change.

You're absolutely correct that someone has to pay for installation, maintenance, and electricity. Almost any answer I can think of is better than the current situation.

Maybe not street parking, but all new work parking, apartment parking and pay parking lots should have power in each stall.

It can be done. 40 years ago almost all spots in cold weather areas had block heater plugs.

A better solution is to just deprecate overnight street parking. It's just a longstanding problem, not an unsolvable one.

I’m looking at Polestar (like Volvo it’s owned by Geely, a Chinese company) and Tesla. I love how Tesla drives, but the focus on the touch screen and lack of things like grab handles or CarPlay really turns me off. I’m hoping another make drives close to the Tesla but has more “normal car” kind of trim.

I’d love to test drive a BYD just for fun. I was in mainland China a week ago and rode in a few different domestic electric cars when taking DiDi (Uber), from BYD and others. All pretty great experiences, good build quality. A surprising percent of the cars on the street in Kunming were electric - maybe 25%. A friend of a friend has one and loves it. Hopefully they start selling in the US soon.

China pretty much has to go fast on the EV transition or choke on fumes. Even in the 90s many big cities banned gas scooters and motorbikes. The domestic market will tolerate more inconvenience and quirks, but they will get competitive fast.

When I looked at buying an EV last year, BYD was a serious option. In the end I decided on a second hand Nissan Leaf. In New Zealand, we're right hand drive and have no local auto makers. We import lots of second hand cars from Japan as a result. Like most New Zealanders, I've never owned a new car. Cheap Chinese EVs are somewhat cost competitive with second hand Japanese EVs which is crazy. Still not going to buy one. I'm happy that geopolitical tensions aren't going to stop spare parts being available.

I have similar sentiment in the UK but the leaf has the wrong fast-charge port! Everything is CCS apart from the nissan leaf and a few other older things. Give it another year or two and finding a chademo fast charger is going to be fairly challenging compared to CCS (where 100+ KW ones are becoming more and more prevalent now)

Headline doesn't match the second paragraph. They changed the headline from a few days ago to maximize clickbait.

https://archive.ph/Okks7

Per capita or total? Of course the total may be bigger because there are almost 3 billion Chinese people.

Personally, I would never buy anything from a Chinese company. Who knows what kind of shortcuts and spyware they have

For one, it would be a shitty thing if Germany forced the EU to slap tarrifs on imported chinese cars. This makes no sense, we did not have tarrifs for chinese or american phones, and it was inevitable that the chinese would make battery cars much easier and faster than everyone. and that is a good thing, because , like in the case of PVs , electrification solves a number of problems for many european countries. Putting german jobs over this would be an awful thing to do

China represents problems more severe than the labor cost of the electrification of the non-commercial fleet.

imaginary problems. the world's job is to create a win-win situation for both, not to shut down global trade

The world is shifting to protectionism as it discovered that globalism improved the lives of people outside its borders greater than inside.

That worked great for natural gas from Russia…

The world's job is to contain an increasingly aggressive, expansionist China. If global trade is impacted then that is an acceptable consequence. Sometimes win-win isn't achievable and win-draw or win-lose is the best you can realistically hope for.

Should it not contain an aggressive, expansionist US?

The rest of the world is welcome to try. They might not like the results when the US Navy no longer safeguards the majority of international trade.

Ironically, China has been one of the primary economic beneficiaries of the postwar Pax Americana. Their merchant ships have been able to travel freely throughout the world without incurring the expense of building a true blue-water navy to protect them. This situation will gradually fall apart over the next few decades.

people watch too much zeihan these days. global trade was a thing even in the age of empires. it might even be a good thing to have a counterbalancing force

Global trade was far more limited prior to the establishment of US hegemony. During the age of empires, merchant vessels often had to carry weapons for protection and/or travel in escorted convoys. All of that leads to higher costs, delays, and the complete closure of indefensible routes.

No one is seriously claiming that global trade will disappear. But from a historical perspective the current frictionless system that most people take for granted is an aberration and we should expect some reversion towards the mean. Whether that's a good thing or not is a matter of perspective.

It is not the world's job to empower a dictator, nor is it in its interest.

As if Germany were the only car manufacturer in Europe: https://www.acea.auto/figure/interactive-map-automobile-asse...

A BMW built in e.g. Slovakia or Spain is still considered a German car. That's the model they use - build local factories everywhere across the world, including places like Brazil and South Africa where they assemble cars at a large scale.

The world’s largest car manufacturer is German… but the world’s third-largest is Dutch (Stellantis, who own all the “wait, they still make those?!” brands). In practice they were put together from a bunch of manufacturers from around Europe, mostly not German.

But the employees are Spanish. I bet they care.

>shitty thing if Germany forced the EU to slap tarrifs on imported chinese cars

That's not going to happen. The German industry itself doesn't support protectionism because virtually all carmakers are heavily invested in the Chinese market both for its consumers and for manufacturing.

Audi last year alone invested 3 billion in a new factory in Changchun[1] together with FAW. Anti-subsidy investigations from the EU are not going to result in any major trade issues.

[1]https://www.audi-mediacenter.com/en/press-releases/cornersto...

German auto firms sell more cars in China than in Europe or the US. European Protectionism would hurt German cars as China would retaliate. In fact Chinese cars like NIO and BYD would benefit from the move at they would now have a 27 million car market for themselves.

Why are BYD shares not skyrocketing?

No wonder, Tesla is a legacy automaker with no secret sauce nor moat.

BYD has a much lower price point, which helps drive ownership.

Tesla has kept the price in the luxury car range in order to maintain it's brand.

Outside the SV/HN bubble, the Tesla is viewed as a luxury car

Addendum:

Luxury doesn't imply expensive. It's a branding strategy.

A Gucci bag or iPhone can be purchased with relatively minimal capital outlay, but will continue to hold a social cachet by being marketed as "exclusive" [0]

Just read the case study below to understand the strategy used. Turns out MBAs ain't as useless as HNers like to think

[0] - https://hbsp.harvard.edu/product/SMU954-PDF-ENG?Ntt=Gucci%3A...

it's interesting, because at least here in the netherlands, there are a LOT of teslas -- as if they were priced as a non luxury car.

two examples, i use this[0] picture as my wallpaper and you can see one of them in there!

also, i have a charging point in front of my flat, and two teslas charge there every day.

[0]https://i.imgur.com/cWbH8S7.jpg

I mean luxury in the same way that "Apple" and "Coach" are luxury brands.

Luxury is a brand concept, not a formal term for expensive.

They were mostly populair because they were cheapest to lease business-wise (there were no good alternatives 4 years back). Tax break is over now, and I hear lots of complaining from people who are now required to lease an EV due to company policies changing in the mean time. Most will have to pay a lot more.

Not sure what you mean by luxury, the Model 3 costs as much as any other new car in Europe at least.

Just wait til all those people who view them as luxury actually get a chance to sit in one. Really great testament to the power of brand, and also makes clear how vulnerable Tesla is to brand risk.

Model 3/Model Y has been the most sold new car in California and a few other areas, selling more than the usual toyotas and hondas.

I feel like it is more of a west/east coast divide. In Seattle/Portland/etc., you will see multiple Teslas at any street intersection, they are literally everywhere. NYC or ATL? Yeah, it definitely is not that common even in the slightest.

> Model 3/Model Y has been the most sold new car in California and a few other areas, selling more than the usual toyotas and hondas.

Model Y is going to be the most sold car model of 2023, not just in California, but in the whole world.

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/28/tesla-model-y-going-to-...

> Model 3/Model Y has been the most sold new car in California and a few other areas, selling more than the usual toyotas and hondas.

California has a $7500 rebate for PHEVs. That's on top of the federal rebate IIRC. California also offers the clean air vehicle passes to use HOV lanes.

So there's some additional help in California to push EVs and Tesla only makes EVs. When the Prius was the big fad car you saw them all over the place in California as well.

Regardless how much Tesla decimates bmw and merc sales, don’t say “luxury” on HN. But call a macbook luxury is fine.

Tesla's Model Y is the top bestselling car model in 2023. It's the first year in history when an electric model outsold any of its ICE competitors.

That's a bit unfair. Tesla has some bets on the table that might be bad bets, but not because they have to manage an EV transition while still making gas cars.

If they are still trying to make cybertrucks at a profit at the end of 2024, they will be paying a pretty steep opportunity cost. But they're not "legacy."

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