Homicides in U.S. set to drop by record numbers this year
axios.com
axios.com
I don't think that prevents enough crime to account for the drop, though I would believe it helps catch criminals after the fact. I'm basing this on the assumption that the average number of homicide incidents per murderer is somewhere around one, and that most people who are likely to commit murder wouldn't decide to do it or not based on the state of this year's gun-crime intelligence analysis packages.
So it could very well be true that the average number of murders committed is close to 1 and at the same time the reduction is wholly accounted for by stopping multiple murders.
I still doubt that either cause speculated on in the article are the actual full reason, or even possibly the primary reasons, but it would at least be possible with the information provided.
It absolutely is. The worst was when anti-gun groups were pushing “micro-stamping” of firing pins to imprint a number on the primer face. Complete and utter fantasy, easily defeat-able, unenforceable, nonsense. Didn’t stop them from pushing it for at least a decade.
Even the bullet to barrel match of a gun fired in the lab is pretty much BS.
You can tell major aspects like ”the gun this bullet came from had 5R or polygonal rifling” but that is about where it ends in reality. You can prove a bullet didn’t come from some gun, but pretty much never that it did.
What you can’t tell is if someone swapped the firing pin for something rounder.
Apparently the new small frame carry Glocks have round pins (42, 43, 48)
https://hipowersandhandguns.com/Corbon%209mm%20115_files/ima...
And yes. They’re full of crap here. To the best of my knowledge not once has a recovered shell been matched to the the case casing library system - it was so ineffective that they dropped it after at least a decade of forcing mfgs to supply two shell casings with every handgun made. Shell casings are basically only good for additional evidence, they can’t even be 100% confirmed to the firearm they were shot from. The fact they even mention it is highly suspect in the truthfulness of the claim.
For anyone that believes the stories… she’ll casing almost never have fingerprints on them after being fired. The firing pin indentation is not a scientific match. I can pick up shells and tell you if it was a certain gun, Glocks specifically have blocky firing pins. MP5s have fluted chambers. Extractor marks and ejector dents, etc. But it’s such minor add-on evidence. The reason you might see police marking shells at a crime is for the count of rounds far more than anything else.
You say this like it's a bad thing (to the extent it's even true). One of the main purposes of the criminal justice system is to deter crime, and in order for the criminal justice system to work, someone has to be supplying the information.
This was my reply with examples and sources to someone saying crimes weren't for fun.
KIA & Hundai knew about the issue well in advance and made the business decision not to react and fix it.
Easiest car to steal in a few generations. People that is
TikTok you are right on the money though. Greatest CCP psyweapon ever invented.
Making a car comically easy to steal will have an impact on car theft rates. It's obviously not the only factor.
Well, there are other crimes than murder?
This is ridiculous. Most of the things the mainstream media report on are true. Do you believe there are wars right now in Ukraine and Israel? Do you believe that the UK exited the EU? Do you believe that SpaceX lost a rocket last week when it tipped over on a boat?
There is certainly a bias towards outrage and inciting strong feelings to get eyeballs and attention. Certain networks have leaned into a political bias as well. But the media is still, by far, the best and most trustworthy source for the basic facts of what is going on in the world.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/11/20/facts-abo...
Re-read the headline.
> Despite rising crime, their perception is wrong because it hasn’t reached historic highs?
Yes, American perception of how dangerous society is is quite skewed, and has been for some time. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/11/20/facts-abo...
We seem the same odd vibes-over-numbers phenomenon in the economy in recent years:
"We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime." -- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01139-z
What evidence is there that COVID was the cause of increased crime rates in the US?
The timing of the spike?
Your link is specific to “stay at home policies”, correctly notes even those were short-lived, and that their relaxation in June/July/August saw the impact of those undone.
Most countries had crime go down, in the US crime went up.
What am I getting wrong here?
I'm not even mentioning TV debates which are mostly BS, with all the 'experts' trying to sound important on some topic irrelevant to %99 of the population.
An again, all this is for advertising, the new root of all evil. TBH some amount is for political agendas too.
It's good that young people don't really watch TV anymore. (Not to imply what replaced it - social media - causes any less mental illness [1].)
Yes I live in a neighborhood with high crime stats. Even relatively high violent crime stats. But it feels pretty safe regardless. Random violent crime is extremely rare. Mostly what you get are violent disputes between people who know each other.
You can literally walk by a drug deal happening and be fully uninvolved. The people won’t even look at you or notice you’re there. It’s like the two parts of society live past each other.
Never leave stuff in your car tho. It will get broken into.
Chicago, even the south side, never felt dangerous to me while living there.
But here in Texas, people seem to think it's some wild west of violence every day.
I've heard non-hyperbolic claims that BLM torched "entire city blocks".
"mostly untorched" is utterly deceptive and misleading rhetoric to push a point.
As practically the only white guy in a couple-mile radius I get given a wide berth because everyone assumes I must be police.
"feels" is such a terrible metric for safety. I guess that's part of the point.
Measuring one's risk of low probability events based on personal experience is inherently flawed.
The murders aren't from random muggings or store stick-ups or people going crazy in a church or a school. They're from dudes who have a beef with a specific other dude, and it just so happens that there are a lot of beefs.
But if you just live here... none of that affects you. Everybody seems to feel perfectly safe walking down the street, going shopping, going out at night. (It's not like there are drive-by shootings with stray bullets or anything.)
The degree of randomness of crime is an extremely important aspect of crime rates that, unfortunately, doesn't seem to get measured. Or if it is, it isn't publicized or part of the conversation.
https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-police-chief-adrian-...
>> "We are doing everything we can to recover guns, reduce this level of violence," Diaz told KOMO News in an interview Thursday. That number keeps rising and it's the highest since Seattle reported 71 homicides in 1994.
>> "Homelessness has been a huge driver of it," he responded. "Almost 20% of our homicides are related to homelessness. Eight percent is related to domestic violence."
Cleveland:
https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/local-news/investigation...
The article has a chart going back to 1960; even the COVID spike is low by 70s/80s/90s standards; 2023's numbers visibly aren't that far off 2014's lowest ever.
We're not quite as good as the 2014 low, but we've returned to the 5-6 per 100k band that we've spent the majority of the last 30 years in (9 years above, many far above; 5 years somewhat below).
Homicide rate in '96 was 7.3 per 100k, falling pretty much linearly to 5.6 per 100k in '99.
It looks like we will finish below 5.8 per 100k this year, and possibly below 5.6. That doesn't seem "astronomically high compared to the late 90s".
> That's how good trauma surgeons are now. They're looking for solutions [to gun deaths] outside the hospital.
> Now, think about the implications of that in a place like Washington, DC. In the last 30 years, the number of homicides in Washington in a typical year has been cut in half. People look at that statistic and say, "Oh, the city's gotten a lot safer." But isn't some part of that decline simply that Eddie Cornwell and Mallory Williams and all the other trauma surgeons of Washington, DC are now saving lives that were once lost?
> A city's murder rate is not a measure of the number of people victimized by potentially lethal violence. No. It's a measure of the number of people victimized by potentially lethal violence minus how good a job doctors do at saving that person's life once they get to the hospital.
* https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/revisionist-history/guns-par...
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pl7c_O_XtfU&t=12m27s [audio-only]
Statistics on non-fatal shootings are not reported on / examined as much:
* https://centerforimprovinginvestigations.org/wp-content/uplo...
Cities are safer. Violent crime is down and property crime continues to drop.
I think in San Francisco violent crime tends to be personal and someone stealing your bike isn't. Where the east bay I feel is more dangerous for someone just going about their business.
Lower-crime rates correlate with lower unemployment, and vice-versa.
Of course, every police department is going to pretend they've developed some novel new crime fighting methods – instead of just realizing that, hey, less poor people means less crime.
Homicides are interesting in isolation, because so many of our domestic homicides are gun-and-drug violence. One of the hypothesis in drug legalization was that homicide rates would decrease.
That hasn't really proven out yet.
It’s really difficult when one of the political parties spent all of 2020 calling to defund police and has made no effort to announce that they were wrong or that they won’t do it again. Makes these kinds of moves feel hollow.
Policies of letting crime run rampant are killing us.
every statistic related to Americans owning guns is rising, including new owners in 2023, diversity of owners, number of households with guns...