People in tech have blinders are. We're already in tech, so we don't see the repercussions. Entry level jobs are almost non-existent, they're all going overseas and to indentured servants.
20 years ago, the Chinese backlog used to be in the decades range. Now it's 2 years.
The Indian backlog used to be multi-decade too, but is now 11.
Already, we've had engineers at portfolio companies decide to return to India to either earn a dollar salary or start their own startup.
At this point, we've decided to straight up outsource jobs to India, Israel, and Eastern Europe. The talent base we need doesn't exist in the US.
These guys could have become taxing paying members of American society. Now they'll make contributions to India, Eastern Europe, and Israel instead
Good! There’s a billion people in India and plenty of opportunities for growth. The net benefit for all of humanity is larger if they stay there.
Put another way, is it really all that great that the US drains the top talent out of India and Eastern Europe?
For example, the founder of Zoho (Sridhar Vembu - I actually lived in the same apartment complex in the Bay Area that he started Zoho at) has become a NatSec cabinet advisor to Narendra Modi's administration, and has a chip on his shoulder about his experience dealing with US immigration. It was a big reason he returned to India.
Wang Huning, the Chairman of the Chinese Politburo and Xi Jinping's right hand man - soured on the US after his experience dealing with the US as a student.
A good friend of mine from college in the ML space who's parents are pretty high up in the ruling party of a major SEA state has been constantly complaining to me and them about how they lost 2 chances at the F1 to H1B conversion, and every single time became more and more ambivalent about the US. They can end up returning to SEA and make a large company, but they will also have a chip on their shoulder about the US.
Another good friend of mine was an Indian national who specialized in EE and Condensed Matter Physics (semiconductors type work) - even did grad school in it at a Stanford type program. He left the US to work for a major Chinese company in SEA because immigration in the US was horrid.
Plenty of Israelis feel the same way now about the US due to similar experiences.
The US Immigration system exudes a sense of American exceptionalism because voters say "Love it or leave it". But the people who leave end up becoming successful, but still angry at how much effort and stress was expended for naught.
China is now a near peer in 2023. There's no reason to fuel anti-Americanism in India, SEA, LatAm, etc and push them to the other side.
China and India combined take in less than a tenth of the immigrants the US takes in yearly. There's really no reason anyone should take their opinions on immigration seriously.
The US's biggest strength is it's soft power at the elite level.
Because of bad experiences like immigration, the US has been losing influence as foreign decision makers soured on the US due to crap treatment.
So what?
Countries like India or Vietnam only began starting to warm to the US because of the diaspora. If the diaspora gets treated like shit, anti-Americanism begins to breed.
A similar thing happened in China in the 2010s.
The Pakistani nuclear program was jumpstarted by PLA technology transfers in the 1970s [0][5], Pakistani Tank Technology like Al-Khalid are results of PLA tech transfers in the early 1990s [1], Pakistan began adopting Chinese fighter jet IP in the early 1990s [2], and the entire indigenous missles program in Pakistan began thanks to Chinese IP transfers in the 80s [3]
The US-Pakistan relationship was always transactional and surface level. Chinese SOEs would at least invest in Military affiliated companies like Heavy Industries Taxila, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, Khan Research Laboratories, Global Industrial Defence Solutions, and National Defence Complex
The countries in the list abovr had a relationship with the US that was similar to that between China-Pakistan, but began pivoting away from the US in the 2010s.
[0] - https://www.jstor.org/stable/41394229
[1] - https://www.dawn.com/news/1217909
[2] - https://web.archive.org/web/20121021154725/http://www.flight...
[3] - https://web.archive.org/web/20081007232310/http://www.wiscon...
[4] - https://www.nytimes.com/1972/02/02/archives/bhutto-confers-w...
Though, even PINSTECH pivoted to China by the 70s [0].
The India-Pakistan rivalry forced Pakistan to try and reach parity with India via Chinese technology transfers.
And yea. American hubris will lose us the next war.
Or more accurately, the processes are obfuscated and full of inexplicable delays. Why would someone even consider hiring a lawyer for something as simple and common as employment-based immigration? And how can the green card process take longer than a few months?
That's funny. I guess every visa holder is some little genius doing particle physics work
You're going out of your way to give very specific anecdotes here, the average level of talent I've met on a visa is something very easily matched domestically. It's pretty hilarious actually, some of them can't actually program and have an SWE job title
And then begin lobbying against the United States.
Which is now having impact on hiring higher level positions because we broke the pipeline of Jr. -> Mid Level -> Sr.
Could you explain what you mean?