It’s hard to disagree with your first scenario as I keep seeing Trumps court cases, plural, line up closer and closer to the election.
It's more likely to play out as Jan 6 did, a riled up mob that turns violent and is squashed.
It becomes more of a police action than a civil war, and frankly, despite all the guns collected by the faithful, its not a fair fight.
Indeed the sides are so unbalanced, outside of a few skirmishes here and there, it's not a "civil war" like the last one.
I think Sanctuary Districts were the most impressive timing so far, it was introduced in the 90s and set in 2024, and now we have sanctuary cities building temporary housing in a similar fashion. The residents would be a bit different though.