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They could possibly do what Epic do where it’s somewhat honor system and you’re subject to audits if you use their libraries/sdks.

But I doubt they’d bother.

The vast majority of users probably would never side load. The App Store and Play Store is more of a discovery and acquisition channel than anything else.

right, when another app store takes off on the platform then their rules would apply.

I am mostly thinking the medium term with alternative billing + existing store.

Sideloading is available now on android.