Optical Media Durability (2020)
blog.dshr.org
blog.dshr.org
I appreciate the level of attention to this problem.
Flash drives are cool too, but Blu-ray Discs will never have an accidental folder deletion or any temptation to be used as more than an archive…
I had a number of burned CDs flake out on me over the years.
So, 10 years would be a good starting point, but probably on the short side of things.
I'm more interested in reads than exhausting the write cycles. I wonder what the "half-life" of each bit/byte is: years? centuries? And how much better are DVDs, fx.
I've never had a Blu-Ray fail on me, for what it's worth.
Physics? I can tell you it's far from permanent. You have charge stored surrounded by insulator. You quantum tunnel it in. Over time, it leaks out. Anecdotally, I've had plenty fail. All else being equal, higher-density devices should fail more quickly in theory (but practice is often different from theory, and all else is rarely equal).
Sorry.
Upside: Periodically reading / re-writing should reset all the ones to ones and all the zeros to zeros.
What I've always wanted was a hundred slot SD/CF card reader, which could access them all at once.